A knee-jerk rally in the USD/JPYpair lost steam near the mid-point of 121 handle, and from there the major reversed more than half BOJ-inspired rally, before climbing back higher to 120.20 last.
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Friday, January 29, 2016
Thursday, January 28, 2016
Kiwi stronger, despite dovish RBNZ, UK GDP – Next up
With the FOMC and RBNZ behind, focus turns back on the oil prices, they once again drive the market sentiment in Asia. Oil prices came under...
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Wednesday, January 27, 2016
AUD shrugs off better CPI as Oil resumes slide, FOMC in focus
A turnaround in risk conditions was witnessed in Asia after the US oil skid back in the red and triggered a renewed bout of risk-aversion across the financial markets. While the extended sell-off in Chinese...
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Monday, January 25, 2016
Australian Business Confidence Defense, NAB predicts weakening Aussie
Australia Business confidence is still quite mantab despite continued volatile market lately. Monthly Business Survey (NAB) showed a slight deterioration in business confidence Australia, from +5 in November to +3 in December 2015. Business conditions also still terkatrol although there are slight decline, from +10 points to +7 points.
"While oil prices are still in a great slump and equity markets still highlights the potential risks to the global outlook, business conditions are still relatively positive so far and still act to convince business sentiment." said Alan Oster, NAB Chief Economist quoted by ABC.
The bank noted that low interest rates and a depreciating Australian dollar has helped catapulted the service sector. Meanwhile, the retail sector and construction experienced a sizeable contraction in business conditions.
"The collapse of mining investment is still an impact on the field of construction, but we are also witnessing the loss of momentum-momentum in the construction industry in line with the Australian residential property market began to cool," said Oster.
NAB: Aussie will depreciate in the month of June 2016
The bank said business conditions still show a recovery in the non-mining sector, and is expected Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will still pay attention to how policies are currently working, before taking action lanut in the future. However, NAB's own forecast that the global outlook is still weaker and it cut its forecast global outlook to 3 percent in the 2016's.
The Australian dollar showed a slight increase 12:02 percent against the US dollar on Monday (25/01) morning today towards the 0.7014 figure. NAB predicts that the Australian dollar will drop to 0.66 per US dollar figures in June this year.
"While oil prices are still in a great slump and equity markets still highlights the potential risks to the global outlook, business conditions are still relatively positive so far and still act to convince business sentiment." said Alan Oster, NAB Chief Economist quoted by ABC.
The bank noted that low interest rates and a depreciating Australian dollar has helped catapulted the service sector. Meanwhile, the retail sector and construction experienced a sizeable contraction in business conditions.
"The collapse of mining investment is still an impact on the field of construction, but we are also witnessing the loss of momentum-momentum in the construction industry in line with the Australian residential property market began to cool," said Oster.
NAB: Aussie will depreciate in the month of June 2016
The bank said business conditions still show a recovery in the non-mining sector, and is expected Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will still pay attention to how policies are currently working, before taking action lanut in the future. However, NAB's own forecast that the global outlook is still weaker and it cut its forecast global outlook to 3 percent in the 2016's.
The Australian dollar showed a slight increase 12:02 percent against the US dollar on Monday (25/01) morning today towards the 0.7014 figure. NAB predicts that the Australian dollar will drop to 0.66 per US dollar figures in June this year.
Oil Prices Continue Rising Due to Blizzard
Until the opening of the trading session on Monday, oil prices continued to climb to continue strengthening in price since last week. Rising oil prices are influenced by short-covering and rising demand triggered by cold weather in the northern hemisphere.
Friday (22/1) ago, oil futures have gained 10 percent and a record for the highest daily price increases due to the steps traders rushed to close their short positions. Today (25/1), Brent futures contract delivery in March had risen to 0.12 percent of the US Dollar 32.22 per barrel, after touching USD 32.69. Likewise, the oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the NYMEX exchange has risen 0:06 percent towards USD 32.19 per barrel.
"Changes in investor sentiment is a major factor, with a speculative short position in WTI down from the historically high level last week," said ANZ Bank on WTI oil as quoted by CNBC. Late last week, Baker Hughes reported that the number of oil wells in the United States decreased 5 to 510 in the week ended January 15. Oil rigs operating in the US has declined for five consecutive weeks, though they actually increased oil production exceeded 9.2 million barrels per day.
Snowstorm that occurred in the US have added to the demand for heating oil and help bring the price of crude oil rose. Until now, Washington is still closed after a storm that causes a buildup of snow between half a meter to 1 meter. While the city of New York and Philadelphia just returned operate.
Friday (22/1) ago, oil futures have gained 10 percent and a record for the highest daily price increases due to the steps traders rushed to close their short positions. Today (25/1), Brent futures contract delivery in March had risen to 0.12 percent of the US Dollar 32.22 per barrel, after touching USD 32.69. Likewise, the oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the NYMEX exchange has risen 0:06 percent towards USD 32.19 per barrel.
"Changes in investor sentiment is a major factor, with a speculative short position in WTI down from the historically high level last week," said ANZ Bank on WTI oil as quoted by CNBC. Late last week, Baker Hughes reported that the number of oil wells in the United States decreased 5 to 510 in the week ended January 15. Oil rigs operating in the US has declined for five consecutive weeks, though they actually increased oil production exceeded 9.2 million barrels per day.
Snowstorm that occurred in the US have added to the demand for heating oil and help bring the price of crude oil rose. Until now, Washington is still closed after a storm that causes a buildup of snow between half a meter to 1 meter. While the city of New York and Philadelphia just returned operate.
Friday, January 22, 2016
Towards gold Increase in Weekly
Gold prices came under pressure, after the President of the ECB gave signs that it will continue its policy of monetary easing, as the turmoil in global markets and the weakening of growth in developing countries. However, gold is still on course for a record weekly price increases.
Today (22/1), spot gold was trading flat at around 1,099.20 per troy ounce, or down about 0.2 percent. However, in the weekly time period, the precious metal is still up 1 percent after touching its highest level of USD 1,109.20 on Wednesday (20/1) then. While on the Comex, gold futures contract for February delivery rose 12:32 per cent to USD 1,101.70 per troy ounce, after a day ago closed at 1,098.20 US Dollars.
President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi said that the decline of economic growth and inflation projections will force the ECB to conduct a review of its monetary policy in March. The statement is considered a strong signal about further monetary easing in the coming months. Euro immediately slumped significantly against the US dollar after Draghi statement, which affects the price of gold.
Bullion support the transfer of risk among investors when global stocks and oil prices fell. Although the demand for physical gold is still slowed from major consumer China and India, which limit further price gains. Premium Gold prices rose sharply in China this week, while the seller in India offer discounts against declining demand.
Today (22/1), spot gold was trading flat at around 1,099.20 per troy ounce, or down about 0.2 percent. However, in the weekly time period, the precious metal is still up 1 percent after touching its highest level of USD 1,109.20 on Wednesday (20/1) then. While on the Comex, gold futures contract for February delivery rose 12:32 per cent to USD 1,101.70 per troy ounce, after a day ago closed at 1,098.20 US Dollars.
President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi said that the decline of economic growth and inflation projections will force the ECB to conduct a review of its monetary policy in March. The statement is considered a strong signal about further monetary easing in the coming months. Euro immediately slumped significantly against the US dollar after Draghi statement, which affects the price of gold.
Bullion support the transfer of risk among investors when global stocks and oil prices fell. Although the demand for physical gold is still slowed from major consumer China and India, which limit further price gains. Premium Gold prices rose sharply in China this week, while the seller in India offer discounts against declining demand.
USD / JPY Maintain Position Manufacturing Japan Post Reports
Japanese manufacturing sector still looks solid expansion in January despite a slight decline in December last. Introduction Japanese Manufacturing Activity Index are showing progress, indicating that the manufacturing sector continues to bergeliat amid economic growth that is not so favorable.
Markit Manufacturing PMI index for the Japanese Nikkei recorded in the number 52.6 in December, but fell into the range of 52.4 in January of this preliminary measurement. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50 signal a contraction.
USD / JPY showed a slight increase from position to position 117.82 touched 117.59 before the report Japan's manufacturing index was released.
The operational conditions of factories in Japan to show its best performance since March 2014 in October and November respectively 52.4 and 52.6 in the numbers thus raising hopes of stronger external demand could lead to a better economic performance in the final quarter of 2015.
Japanese manufacturing sector has taken advantage of the rapid weakening of the yen in recent years and make domestic production more competitive and more profitable.
Yen Rises Again As Safe Haven Hunting
However, these conditions also contains a fairly high risk because in the middle of the fall in commodity and oil prices, investors will be abuzz seek safe-haven assets including the yen. The Japanese currency will be strengthened and it is this which squeezes export companies in the Rising Sun Country.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) also stated that it will tighten oversight of the oil price in relation to the inflation target of 2 percent set. The strengthening of the yen and the fall in oil prices will be the subject of their monetary policy meeting on 28 January.
Markit Manufacturing PMI index for the Japanese Nikkei recorded in the number 52.6 in December, but fell into the range of 52.4 in January of this preliminary measurement. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50 signal a contraction.
USD / JPY showed a slight increase from position to position 117.82 touched 117.59 before the report Japan's manufacturing index was released.
The operational conditions of factories in Japan to show its best performance since March 2014 in October and November respectively 52.4 and 52.6 in the numbers thus raising hopes of stronger external demand could lead to a better economic performance in the final quarter of 2015.
Japanese manufacturing sector has taken advantage of the rapid weakening of the yen in recent years and make domestic production more competitive and more profitable.
Yen Rises Again As Safe Haven Hunting
However, these conditions also contains a fairly high risk because in the middle of the fall in commodity and oil prices, investors will be abuzz seek safe-haven assets including the yen. The Japanese currency will be strengthened and it is this which squeezes export companies in the Rising Sun Country.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) also stated that it will tighten oversight of the oil price in relation to the inflation target of 2 percent set. The strengthening of the yen and the fall in oil prices will be the subject of their monetary policy meeting on 28 January.
Monday, January 18, 2016
Relief rally for Antipodeans in Asia, China stocks waver
Risk-aversion persisted in the Asian session, although a profit-taking wave hit the currency markets, with the Antipodeans rebounding from Friday’s heavy sell-off, while the USD/JPY pair also extends the recovery on 117 handle.
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USD / CAD rally, Canada Predicted to Cut Interest rate January 20
USD / CAD is still danced at high levels amid rising concerns over oil prices that in fact the main source of export revenue Canada. However, analysts predict the loonie's rally will last much longer, in line with expectations that the Bank of Canada will cut rates at its meeting on January 20.
USD / CAD had retreated to the range 1.4190an on US session yesterday, but rose again to reach 1.4290an the Asian session this morning (13/1). The Canadian dollar is still in a strong sell pressure with respect to impairment where WTI crude oil prices fell to below the level of 30 dollars for the first time in 12 years. On the other hand, investors remain worried about China's stock market crisis and the devaluation of the Renminbi. Chinese trade balance data reported better than expected this morning, but the central bank again lowered the benchmark rate. As a result, the positive trade balance data by commodity markets have not responded to the news lifted.
While uncertainty over Beijing's currency policy is still of concern to the market, David Doyle seed analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. predicting the Canadian dollar exchange rate which currently stands at around 70 cents US dollar would fall to 59 cents US Dollars in 2016, along with the worsening oil prices.
Doyle, who is a forecaster USD / CAD's best last year according to Bloomberg version also predicts the Canadian central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to 0:25 per cent on January 20. Furthermore, despite the measures taken, he said, the weakening of the manufacturing sector and the increasingly intense competition in the US market which became its main trading partners will complicate the Canadian economy to move forward.
USD / CAD had retreated to the range 1.4190an on US session yesterday, but rose again to reach 1.4290an the Asian session this morning (13/1). The Canadian dollar is still in a strong sell pressure with respect to impairment where WTI crude oil prices fell to below the level of 30 dollars for the first time in 12 years. On the other hand, investors remain worried about China's stock market crisis and the devaluation of the Renminbi. Chinese trade balance data reported better than expected this morning, but the central bank again lowered the benchmark rate. As a result, the positive trade balance data by commodity markets have not responded to the news lifted.
While uncertainty over Beijing's currency policy is still of concern to the market, David Doyle seed analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. predicting the Canadian dollar exchange rate which currently stands at around 70 cents US dollar would fall to 59 cents US Dollars in 2016, along with the worsening oil prices.
Doyle, who is a forecaster USD / CAD's best last year according to Bloomberg version also predicts the Canadian central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to 0:25 per cent on January 20. Furthermore, despite the measures taken, he said, the weakening of the manufacturing sector and the increasingly intense competition in the US market which became its main trading partners will complicate the Canadian economy to move forward.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Fed official: Rate May Not Rise Four Times In 2016
Although the 'dot plot' on December FOMC meeting indicated Fed rate hikes four times again in 2016, but the view of the high officials of the Federal Reserve is still diverse. Comments from the new Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, shows the lack of kompakan.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade in December, ending a period of super-low interest rate policy that were previously carried out in response to the financial crisis of 2007/2009. Investors are now focusing on when the next rate hike is done, with many economists predicting that steps will be taken by the Fed in March. Essentially the median forecast in December FOMC indicating there will be four Fed rate hikes in 2016.
However, Robert Kaplan and Dennis Lockhart different opinions about whether there is enough data to support a rate hike in March it.
Concerns over an economic slowdown in China in August 2015 has forced the Fed to postpone interest rate hikes from September to December. Earlier this year, the global financial market was again shaken by ambrolnya Chinese stock market, the decline Yuan, and the massive intervention of the Chinese authorities. Considering this, Kaplan that since September replaces Richard W. Fisher as president of the Dallas Fed, assessing the economic conditions need to be evaluated again.
He said, "We are experiencing it (sort of) in August and September, we wait, we monitor, we let events occur (without raising interest rates), which (it) is the right way to handle it, and we finally see that the basic economic conditions remains intact and smooth ... There is no substitute for 'time' in assessing economic data revealed. "
Furthermore, Kaplan was not sure there would be enough economic data before the next Fed policy meeting late this January to justify a rate hike at the time, but "between now and March, I think there will be (the data that support)."
Kaplan opinion is somewhat different from the views of the Atlanta Fed President delivered on different occasions. According to Lockhart, until March could so there would not be enough data to support a rate hike.
Lockhart is a member of the FOMC in 2015, but both he and Kaplan, both of them are not included in the FOMC voting members of the FOMC Policy 2016. The voting members rotate every year to make the shift members dovish and hawkish. 2015 dovish FOMC members, one of whom Lockhart, was replaced by a new line that tends hawkish, such as St. Louis Fed president James Bullard and Kansas City Fed President Esther George.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade in December, ending a period of super-low interest rate policy that were previously carried out in response to the financial crisis of 2007/2009. Investors are now focusing on when the next rate hike is done, with many economists predicting that steps will be taken by the Fed in March. Essentially the median forecast in December FOMC indicating there will be four Fed rate hikes in 2016.
However, Robert Kaplan and Dennis Lockhart different opinions about whether there is enough data to support a rate hike in March it.
Concerns over an economic slowdown in China in August 2015 has forced the Fed to postpone interest rate hikes from September to December. Earlier this year, the global financial market was again shaken by ambrolnya Chinese stock market, the decline Yuan, and the massive intervention of the Chinese authorities. Considering this, Kaplan that since September replaces Richard W. Fisher as president of the Dallas Fed, assessing the economic conditions need to be evaluated again.
He said, "We are experiencing it (sort of) in August and September, we wait, we monitor, we let events occur (without raising interest rates), which (it) is the right way to handle it, and we finally see that the basic economic conditions remains intact and smooth ... There is no substitute for 'time' in assessing economic data revealed. "
Furthermore, Kaplan was not sure there would be enough economic data before the next Fed policy meeting late this January to justify a rate hike at the time, but "between now and March, I think there will be (the data that support)."
Kaplan opinion is somewhat different from the views of the Atlanta Fed President delivered on different occasions. According to Lockhart, until March could so there would not be enough data to support a rate hike.
Lockhart is a member of the FOMC in 2015, but both he and Kaplan, both of them are not included in the FOMC voting members of the FOMC Policy 2016. The voting members rotate every year to make the shift members dovish and hawkish. 2015 dovish FOMC members, one of whom Lockhart, was replaced by a new line that tends hawkish, such as St. Louis Fed president James Bullard and Kansas City Fed President Esther George.
Monday, January 11, 2016
AUD / USD Bounce After sinks to bottom 70 cent
In mid-Asian session this morning (11/1), AUD / USD bounces after slumping to a four-month lows last week. However, the pair still bearish sentiment tinged with respect to concerns about the Asian markets and commodity prices.
AUD / USD closed dipped to 0.6951 on Friday, its lowest level since September 2015, following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, Wall Street and in Australia. ASX200 index fell 2 percent, the lowest since July 2013 in a series of events in a bad week for the stock market of the world. However, the pair has now returned.
Currently, the pair AUD / USD was trading around 0.3 percent higher than the previous low level, approaching the 0.6980 range.
However, in the middle of a quiet weekend fundamental release, sentiment towards the Aussie damped by the rise of concerns over China's economic slowdown which has triggered a new selloff in the equity markets and commodities. In the coming days, developments in China and commodity markets will be observed by market participants prior to the release of Australian employment data on Thursday.
Could Decline Further
HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham said on ABC Australian media that the Australian dollar could fall further in 2016 due to the weakness of the country's main export commodity. Moreover, the condition of China and rising US interest rates will continue to shake the financial markets this year.
According to Bloxham, "The Australian dollar (today) is located at a level higher than what is implied from the relationship with commodity prices, commodity price levels now imply that the Australian dollar at 60-65 US cents (USD0.60-0.65) could be more ideal. If the Australian dollar does not degenerate further, then this could make the RBA disappointed and forced them to cut (rates) again. "
AUD / USD closed dipped to 0.6951 on Friday, its lowest level since September 2015, following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, Wall Street and in Australia. ASX200 index fell 2 percent, the lowest since July 2013 in a series of events in a bad week for the stock market of the world. However, the pair has now returned.
Currently, the pair AUD / USD was trading around 0.3 percent higher than the previous low level, approaching the 0.6980 range.
However, in the middle of a quiet weekend fundamental release, sentiment towards the Aussie damped by the rise of concerns over China's economic slowdown which has triggered a new selloff in the equity markets and commodities. In the coming days, developments in China and commodity markets will be observed by market participants prior to the release of Australian employment data on Thursday.
Could Decline Further
HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham said on ABC Australian media that the Australian dollar could fall further in 2016 due to the weakness of the country's main export commodity. Moreover, the condition of China and rising US interest rates will continue to shake the financial markets this year.
According to Bloxham, "The Australian dollar (today) is located at a level higher than what is implied from the relationship with commodity prices, commodity price levels now imply that the Australian dollar at 60-65 US cents (USD0.60-0.65) could be more ideal. If the Australian dollar does not degenerate further, then this could make the RBA disappointed and forced them to cut (rates) again. "
EUR / JPY January 11, 2016: Still Indications Correction Price
Last Friday pairs EUR / JPY down 50 pips from the opening price of 128.60 and closed at 128.10. Body candle still be inside fibonacci measured on Jan. 5 yesterday, Fibonacci can still use to this day. While the indicator moving average still shows a trend down with the red moving average (MA 4) and blue (MA 13) which is under the green moving average (MA 50). While stochastic oscillator tried to move out leaving the oversold area.
Friday, January 8, 2016
AUD / USD Australia Panning Increase Despite Sluggish Retail
Australian retail sales growing in a moderate pace in November. This suggests that consumers are still reluctant to shop in the middle of Australia's precarious economic situation. Demand from consumers are still reeling because of the growth of public revenue continues to fade.
Australian retail sales grew 0.4 percent on-month basis in November, while sales growth in October was revised up from 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Friday (08/01) morning.
Retail household goods rose 0.9 percent in November, while service restaurant jumped up to 1 percent, and retail food edged up 0.2 percent. While retail clothing such as clothing, footwear and accessories rose 0.8 percent, followed by other retail sales by 0.4 percent increase. There is also a 0.8 percent decline in sales at department stores.
Responding to this report, the Australian dollar was trading higher then 0.25 per cent against the US Dollar at 0.7028 figure this morning in Sydney. Previously, AUD / USD is at 0.7012 level at the close of New York trading session last night.
Australian society not Want Boros
The decline of activity in the retail sekstor tergoncangnya in Australia are a reflection of consumer confidence in Australia's economic transition of mining investment sector. Decline in economic activity after mining investment boom significantly reducing income growth and the impact on consumer shopping habits.
In addition, the weakening of the labor market in recent years diminish consumer confidence and triggered a cautious attitude towards waste. The impact, of course the weakening inflation. RBA is likely to cut interest rates back this year if consumer inflation (CPI) Australia continues to be low.
Australian retail sales grew 0.4 percent on-month basis in November, while sales growth in October was revised up from 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Friday (08/01) morning.
Retail household goods rose 0.9 percent in November, while service restaurant jumped up to 1 percent, and retail food edged up 0.2 percent. While retail clothing such as clothing, footwear and accessories rose 0.8 percent, followed by other retail sales by 0.4 percent increase. There is also a 0.8 percent decline in sales at department stores.
Responding to this report, the Australian dollar was trading higher then 0.25 per cent against the US Dollar at 0.7028 figure this morning in Sydney. Previously, AUD / USD is at 0.7012 level at the close of New York trading session last night.
Australian society not Want Boros
The decline of activity in the retail sekstor tergoncangnya in Australia are a reflection of consumer confidence in Australia's economic transition of mining investment sector. Decline in economic activity after mining investment boom significantly reducing income growth and the impact on consumer shopping habits.
In addition, the weakening of the labor market in recent years diminish consumer confidence and triggered a cautious attitude towards waste. The impact, of course the weakening inflation. RBA is likely to cut interest rates back this year if consumer inflation (CPI) Australia continues to be low.
Thursday, January 7, 2016
Gold analysis January 7: Advanced Corrective Bullish On 1093 range
Gold continued strengthening of the correction and appears to be resistant test range in 1098 (FIBO 38.2) after getting reinforcement of more than USD7 of the trading day yesterday.
The fundamental issue that is being strengthened today is the tension in the Middle East, speculation continued rise in US interest rates and the volatility of global stock markets, especially in China, including the success of the hydrogen bomb test by North Korea.
Technical Analysis
At the H4 chart below can be one of the possible Elliott Wave count that can help you take trading decisions today.
The fundamental issue that is being strengthened today is the tension in the Middle East, speculation continued rise in US interest rates and the volatility of global stock markets, especially in China, including the success of the hydrogen bomb test by North Korea.
Technical Analysis
At the H4 chart below can be one of the possible Elliott Wave count that can help you take trading decisions today.
Tuesday, January 5, 2016
Australian Dollar Steady After Yesterday Free Fall
Australian dollar helped by stable Chinese equities and rising consumer sentiment amid an economic recovery that is still half-hearted, after touching a two-week low on Tuesday early this morning.
AUD / USD traded in the range of 0.7211 on Tuesday (05/01) morning, lower than the position of 0.7221 in the same time on Monday. The Australian currency had slipped by nearly 2 percent to 0.7155 figure, in the trading session last night before recovering slightly to 0.7188 levels.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar was higher in the trading session last night even though data on US manufacturing PMI recorded a contraction. US Manufacturing PMI is in Area 48.6, below expectations of 49.1 basis points in November. Sectors which support approximately nine percent of the workforce across the land of Uncle Sam is still much hampered by the strengthening US dollar. Especially for the manufacturing industry with export orientation.
Weak Chinese PMI Manufacturing yesterday Caixin is a major trigger for the decline of the Australian dollar in view of China is the main export destination for Australia. Lapran showed that Chinese manufacturing activity still contracted in the 10 consecutive month in December. China Caixin Manufacturing index for December fell to 48.2, slightly below forecasts at level 49 and less than 48.6 in the previous month.
Investors Start Back To Dollar
According to Stuart McPhee, Oanda analysts interviewed by the Sydney Morning Herald, it saw the Aussie under pressure as investors returned to the US dollar due to concerns about the Chinese economy and by the year 2016 begins. However, McPhee said that the 0.72 area is a support level for the AUD / USD. That level is still significantly in recent months and still play a role.
AUD / USD traded in the range of 0.7211 on Tuesday (05/01) morning, lower than the position of 0.7221 in the same time on Monday. The Australian currency had slipped by nearly 2 percent to 0.7155 figure, in the trading session last night before recovering slightly to 0.7188 levels.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar was higher in the trading session last night even though data on US manufacturing PMI recorded a contraction. US Manufacturing PMI is in Area 48.6, below expectations of 49.1 basis points in November. Sectors which support approximately nine percent of the workforce across the land of Uncle Sam is still much hampered by the strengthening US dollar. Especially for the manufacturing industry with export orientation.
Weak Chinese PMI Manufacturing yesterday Caixin is a major trigger for the decline of the Australian dollar in view of China is the main export destination for Australia. Lapran showed that Chinese manufacturing activity still contracted in the 10 consecutive month in December. China Caixin Manufacturing index for December fell to 48.2, slightly below forecasts at level 49 and less than 48.6 in the previous month.
Investors Start Back To Dollar
According to Stuart McPhee, Oanda analysts interviewed by the Sydney Morning Herald, it saw the Aussie under pressure as investors returned to the US dollar due to concerns about the Chinese economy and by the year 2016 begins. However, McPhee said that the 0.72 area is a support level for the AUD / USD. That level is still significantly in recent months and still play a role.
EUR / JPY January 5, 2016: Pressure Downtrend Still Strong
EUR / JPY on Monday was closed with the fall in pairs as much as 124 pips from the opening price of 130.61 and closed at 129.37. The direction the market is able to penetrate the Fibonacci retracement level 100 measured on Thursday, December 3rd which
then the new Fibonacci can be measured on the basis of candle yesterday. Moving averages still indicated to drop seen in the red moving average (MA 4) and blue (MA 13), which has cut green moving average (MA 50) from top to bottom. While the stochastic indicator is still seen to be on the oversold area.
then the new Fibonacci can be measured on the basis of candle yesterday. Moving averages still indicated to drop seen in the red moving average (MA 4) and blue (MA 13), which has cut green moving average (MA 50) from top to bottom. While the stochastic indicator is still seen to be on the oversold area.
Monday, January 4, 2016
AUDUSD Free Fall After China Manufacturing PMI and Arab-Iranian polemic
premiered at the Asian trading session on Monday (04/01) in 2016 begins with the Australian dollar free fall by nearly one per cent in line with jebloknya manufacturing sector in major export destinations of Australia, China, as well as the tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran that catch fire in diplomatic relations between the two The Middle Eastern countries.
aud_usd
AUD / USD was trading at 0.7222 fell to 0.93 percent from its previous position at 0.7296 in just 15 minutes.
China Caixin Manufacturing Index
China Caixin Manufacturing index for December fell to 48.2, slightly below forecasts at level 49 and less than the previous 48.6. Meanwhile, Australia's self-reported data on the position of AIG Manufacturing Index 51.9, although still in the expansion category, down from a previous 52.5.
Governor of the Central Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens, indirectly seemed quite happy with the weakening Aussie dollar so far in 2016. Stevens continued to launch "jawboning" about the weakening Australian dollar. In August last year, RBA Governor replace observations statement about the Australian dollar which usually reads "further depreciation is necessary" to "The Australian dollar was adjusted to significantly decline in commodity prices."
Arab-Iranian polemic
The fall of the AUD / USD to a certain extent affected by the upheaval in oil prices, after the announcement of the termination of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran appeared in Twitter tweets in Arabic by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia.
"With this, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Adel Al-Jubeir, announced to cut diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran." thus the chirp sounds. This termination step occurs after the raid on the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Tehran last weekend, following the execution of the Shia cleric leading Arab Iran.
aud_usd
AUD / USD was trading at 0.7222 fell to 0.93 percent from its previous position at 0.7296 in just 15 minutes.
China Caixin Manufacturing Index
China Caixin Manufacturing index for December fell to 48.2, slightly below forecasts at level 49 and less than the previous 48.6. Meanwhile, Australia's self-reported data on the position of AIG Manufacturing Index 51.9, although still in the expansion category, down from a previous 52.5.
Governor of the Central Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens, indirectly seemed quite happy with the weakening Aussie dollar so far in 2016. Stevens continued to launch "jawboning" about the weakening Australian dollar. In August last year, RBA Governor replace observations statement about the Australian dollar which usually reads "further depreciation is necessary" to "The Australian dollar was adjusted to significantly decline in commodity prices."
Arab-Iranian polemic
The fall of the AUD / USD to a certain extent affected by the upheaval in oil prices, after the announcement of the termination of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran appeared in Twitter tweets in Arabic by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia.
"With this, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Adel Al-Jubeir, announced to cut diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran." thus the chirp sounds. This termination step occurs after the raid on the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Tehran last weekend, following the execution of the Shia cleric leading Arab Iran.
Gold Rises As The increased tension in the Middle East
At the opening of Asian markets today (4/1), the price of gold gained as investors' view of the increase in geopolitical tension after Saudi Arabia against Iran broke off diplomatic relations.
Spot gold rose 12:29 percent to the US dollar 1,064.40 per troy ounce. Similarly, delivery next month gold on the Comex stronger then 0.25 per cent to USD 1,062.90 per troy ounce. Precious metals prices rose after the announcement of the rope rupture of diplomatic relations Saudi Arabia against Iran posed via Twitter Saudi Foreign Ministry official, "Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir of the Saudi Kingdom announced a severance of diplomatic relations on Iran."
The influence of the political tensions caused bullion rallied due to the action of shifting investment towards the save-haven assets and the exclusion of the strengthening US dollar against six other major currencies. The US Dollar Index is still at the high level of 98.62, only slightly dimmed 0:07 percent at the opening of the market on the first day of the new year.
Many people predict gold will be a difficult year in 2016. After an increase in interest rates for the first time in December last year, the Fed is expected to undertake a gradual increase in the Federal Funds Rate during the year. Higher interest rates will weigh on demand non-interest assets such as gold, while on the other hand give support to the US dollar.
Spot gold rose 12:29 percent to the US dollar 1,064.40 per troy ounce. Similarly, delivery next month gold on the Comex stronger then 0.25 per cent to USD 1,062.90 per troy ounce. Precious metals prices rose after the announcement of the rope rupture of diplomatic relations Saudi Arabia against Iran posed via Twitter Saudi Foreign Ministry official, "Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir of the Saudi Kingdom announced a severance of diplomatic relations on Iran."
The influence of the political tensions caused bullion rallied due to the action of shifting investment towards the save-haven assets and the exclusion of the strengthening US dollar against six other major currencies. The US Dollar Index is still at the high level of 98.62, only slightly dimmed 0:07 percent at the opening of the market on the first day of the new year.
Many people predict gold will be a difficult year in 2016. After an increase in interest rates for the first time in December last year, the Fed is expected to undertake a gradual increase in the Federal Funds Rate during the year. Higher interest rates will weigh on demand non-interest assets such as gold, while on the other hand give support to the US dollar.
Tensions Arabia And Iran Lifts Oil Prices
Rising tensions in the Middle East increased oil prices earlier this year. Saudi Arabia reportedly broke off diplomatic relations with Iran after the assault in the Saudi embassy.
Today (4/1), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia announced that, "Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir (from) the Kingdom of Saudi announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran". The decision was announced following arson and assault in the Office of the Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Tehran.
Disputes between the two nations heats up after Saudi executions in Nimr al-Nimr a result Shia cleric accused of terrorism. Although direct impact on oil supply is very limited, but the tension between the two countries is estimated to increase sectarian problem in Islam.
Oil futures contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) opened higher 1:52 percent to the US dollar 37.80 per barrel, while Brent following the increase of 1.6 per cent to USD 38.28 per barrel. Last week, oil prices rose slightly ahead of year-end holidays, but ended the year 2015 with a sharp decline due to the increasing global oil supplies.
Today (4/1), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia announced that, "Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir (from) the Kingdom of Saudi announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran". The decision was announced following arson and assault in the Office of the Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Tehran.
Disputes between the two nations heats up after Saudi executions in Nimr al-Nimr a result Shia cleric accused of terrorism. Although direct impact on oil supply is very limited, but the tension between the two countries is estimated to increase sectarian problem in Islam.
Oil futures contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) opened higher 1:52 percent to the US dollar 37.80 per barrel, while Brent following the increase of 1.6 per cent to USD 38.28 per barrel. Last week, oil prices rose slightly ahead of year-end holidays, but ended the year 2015 with a sharp decline due to the increasing global oil supplies.
Technical Analysis 4-9 January 2016
EUR/USD:
Daily chart: likely bearish:
1. The price curve penetrates the middle band indicator Bollinger Bands with a long bearish bars and the location of the point of Parabolic SAR indicator (Parabolic Stop And Reverse) moved to the top of the bar candlestick, indicating that bearish sentiment is quite strong.
2. Curve RSI indicator moves below the center line (level 50.0).
3. Outline histogram ADX indicator red color change that indicates dominant bearish.
Weekly pivot level: 1.0903
Resistance: 1.0925; 1.1000; 1.1042; 1.1097; 1.1133; 1.1208 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement-1); 1.1295 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level-2); 1.1383; 1.1435; 1.1533; 1.1620; 1.1753; 1.1810 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level-2); 1.1875.
Support: 1.0820; 1.0760; 1.0680; 1.0600; 1.0565; 1.0500; 1.0334; 1.0206; 1.0070 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement-1); 1.0000.
Indicators: simple moving average (SMA) 200; Parabolic SAR (0:02, 0.2); Bollinger Bands (20.2); MACD (12,26,9); OSMA; RSI (14); ADX (14)
Critical levels EUR / USD: 1.2000; 1.1875: 1.1753: 1.1700; 1.1620; 1.1540; 1.1500; 1.1460; 1.1373; 1.1313; 1.1290; 1.1200; 1.1113: 1.1050; 1.1000; 1.0910; 1.0860; 1.0760: 1.0500; 1.0208; 1.0170.
Fibonacci retracement (1):
Point swing low: 0.8225 (lowest price October 26, 2000)
Swing high point: 1.6037 (highest price July 15, 2008)
Fibonacci retracement (2):
Swing high point: 1.3992 (highs May 8, 2015)
Point swing low: 1.0461 (lowest price of March 13, 2015)
Fibonacci fan:
Swing high point: 1.3410 (highest price August 15, 2014)
Point swing low: 1.2499 (lowest price October 3, 2014)
Important fundamental data this week is the US Non-Farm Payrolls, the minutes of the FOMC meeting, the CPI Flash Estimate Eurozone, German CPI, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and US Jobless Claims.
Daily chart: likely bearish:1. The price curve penetrates the middle band indicator Bollinger Bands with a long bearish bars and the location of the point of Parabolic SAR indicator (Parabolic Stop And Reverse) moved to the top of the bar candlestick, indicating that bearish sentiment is quite strong.
2. Curve RSI indicator moves below the center line (level 50.0).
3. Outline histogram ADX indicator red color change that indicates dominant bearish.
Weekly pivot level: 1.0903
Resistance: 1.0925; 1.1000; 1.1042; 1.1097; 1.1133; 1.1208 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement-1); 1.1295 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level-2); 1.1383; 1.1435; 1.1533; 1.1620; 1.1753; 1.1810 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level-2); 1.1875.
Support: 1.0820; 1.0760; 1.0680; 1.0600; 1.0565; 1.0500; 1.0334; 1.0206; 1.0070 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement-1); 1.0000.
Indicators: simple moving average (SMA) 200; Parabolic SAR (0:02, 0.2); Bollinger Bands (20.2); MACD (12,26,9); OSMA; RSI (14); ADX (14)
Critical levels EUR / USD: 1.2000; 1.1875: 1.1753: 1.1700; 1.1620; 1.1540; 1.1500; 1.1460; 1.1373; 1.1313; 1.1290; 1.1200; 1.1113: 1.1050; 1.1000; 1.0910; 1.0860; 1.0760: 1.0500; 1.0208; 1.0170.
Fibonacci retracement (1):
Point swing low: 0.8225 (lowest price October 26, 2000)
Swing high point: 1.6037 (highest price July 15, 2008)
Fibonacci retracement (2):
Swing high point: 1.3992 (highs May 8, 2015)
Point swing low: 1.0461 (lowest price of March 13, 2015)
Fibonacci fan:
Swing high point: 1.3410 (highest price August 15, 2014)
Point swing low: 1.2499 (lowest price October 3, 2014)
Important fundamental data this week is the US Non-Farm Payrolls, the minutes of the FOMC meeting, the CPI Flash Estimate Eurozone, German CPI, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and US Jobless Claims.
Thursday, December 31, 2015
AUD / USD Continues to Climb Despite Oil prices fall
The Australian dollar continued to rise around the 0.73 level on Thursday (31/12) even though the weakness of global oil prices continue to subvert the currency-commodity other currencies. This morning, the Australian dollar headed figure of 0.7300 against the US dollar 0.7289 level in yesterday's trading session.
Australia's currency declined to breakout in a tight trading range in two consecutive days. Relative strengthening it contrasts with the slump experienced by the Norwegian Krona and the Canadian Dollar. The two commodity currencies have a high sensitivity to global oil prices, which reportedly collapsed due to the increasing amount of excess supply.
Australia is a country of marginal importer of oil, which makes its currency is generally less sensitive to oil price movements. Nevertheless, low oil prices could weigh on natural gas prices and squeezing the Australian national income of the rich natural resources. Kangaroo country is preparing to become the country's largest importer of liquefied natural gas world.
More Affected Iron Ore Price
The Australian dollar usually react more strongly in turning movement if the data is correlated with the price of iron ore, Australia's biggest export today. Iron ore prices was observed to rise 2.7 percent, according to data The Stee Index.
Australian dollar trading pattern is likely to be solid enough obstacles in the next week, precisely when a number of institutional traders re-enter the market after a long holiday. In addition, the release of macroeconomic data, such as international trade data and building approvals on next Thursday, will affect the Aussie.
Australia's currency declined to breakout in a tight trading range in two consecutive days. Relative strengthening it contrasts with the slump experienced by the Norwegian Krona and the Canadian Dollar. The two commodity currencies have a high sensitivity to global oil prices, which reportedly collapsed due to the increasing amount of excess supply.
Australia is a country of marginal importer of oil, which makes its currency is generally less sensitive to oil price movements. Nevertheless, low oil prices could weigh on natural gas prices and squeezing the Australian national income of the rich natural resources. Kangaroo country is preparing to become the country's largest importer of liquefied natural gas world.
More Affected Iron Ore Price
The Australian dollar usually react more strongly in turning movement if the data is correlated with the price of iron ore, Australia's biggest export today. Iron ore prices was observed to rise 2.7 percent, according to data The Stee Index.
Australian dollar trading pattern is likely to be solid enough obstacles in the next week, precisely when a number of institutional traders re-enter the market after a long holiday. In addition, the release of macroeconomic data, such as international trade data and building approvals on next Thursday, will affect the Aussie.
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
Commodity-currencies drop in Asia alongside Oil
Amid light trading calendar extending into Asia this Wednesday, the focus continues to remain on the oil price action, with the commodity-currencies complex mirroring the moves in the black gold. While the...
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Gold analysis December 30: Corrective In 1069 range
Corrective gold back in the range of 1069, has not yet determined a clear direction of movement with the thin volume responding to the movement of the dollar and oil are relatively more stable.
Gold is likely to end the movement in 2015 with a drop of about 10 percent, mainly due to expectations of US interest rates higher are expected to continue to weaken the position of gold as an investment metal without interest.
Technical Analysis
At the H4 chart below can be one of the possible Elliott Wave count that can help you take trading decisions today.
Gold is likely to end the movement in 2015 with a drop of about 10 percent, mainly due to expectations of US interest rates higher are expected to continue to weaken the position of gold as an investment metal without interest.
Technical Analysis
At the H4 chart below can be one of the possible Elliott Wave count that can help you take trading decisions today.
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
Global demand slows, Critical Oil Prices
Oil futures increasingly immersed due to slowing demand. At the same time, high global oil production has hit oil prices to the lowest level.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery next month is in the range of USD 36.75 per barrel or down 6 cents from the closing price on Monday (28/12). While the international benchmark Brent oil also declined 3 cents to USD 36.59 per barrel and the US dollar is less than one dollar only from 11-year lows.
Oil output from the main exporting countries such as Russia, OPEC and the US shale producers have approached the highest production level, but at this time the condition of being a large-magnitude demand that the fall in oil prices further. The condition is not always expected to take place. Analysts from JBC Energy said that the growth in demand for refinery products edged negative in October for the first time during the last 10 months. Likewise with demand from China also slowed.
That changed this month WTI oil prices just now turned higher than Brent after the US lifted a ban on the export of crude oil. Analysts expect this pricing structure will persist, mainly because the global market is experiencing a decline in demand and supply of oil while the US tightens its shale drilling.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery next month is in the range of USD 36.75 per barrel or down 6 cents from the closing price on Monday (28/12). While the international benchmark Brent oil also declined 3 cents to USD 36.59 per barrel and the US dollar is less than one dollar only from 11-year lows.
Oil output from the main exporting countries such as Russia, OPEC and the US shale producers have approached the highest production level, but at this time the condition of being a large-magnitude demand that the fall in oil prices further. The condition is not always expected to take place. Analysts from JBC Energy said that the growth in demand for refinery products edged negative in October for the first time during the last 10 months. Likewise with demand from China also slowed.
That changed this month WTI oil prices just now turned higher than Brent after the US lifted a ban on the export of crude oil. Analysts expect this pricing structure will persist, mainly because the global market is experiencing a decline in demand and supply of oil while the US tightens its shale drilling.
Australian Dollar Up On Trying Middle Sluggish Global Commodity Prices
The Australian dollar, which is a commodity currency, the acquisition is trying to get in the middle of the slide in prices of oil and gold. In a quiet trading session on Tuesday (29/12) afternoon today, the Australian dollar was trading at 0.7260 against the US dollar, up from 0.7256 on Thursday last week before the Christmas holiday.
Oil prices fell to 3 percent in the trading session last night as a result of Iran's plan to increase the supply of oil. "The statement that Iran plans to raise export as much as 500,000 barrels a day within six months after the sanctions were lifted, the news is not good for oil," said Head of Markets CMC Markets, Ric Spooner. Iran also clarify its plans to cut prices in order to restore the proper export market share.
Currency most affected by the current oil price environment is actually the Canadian Dollar. The Canadian dollar continued to decline following the oil price, US dollar drop face because oil is a major Canadian export.
The Australian dollar will weaken with Iron Ore Price
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar remained firm despite Australia's major commodity prices, namely iron ore, continues to decline. But strategists CNBC bet that if the condition of the iron ore price continues the commodity currencies will continue to weaken. The price of the core components of the steel makers rose above 40 Australian dollars per ton, but still continue to fall by nearly 11 percent last month. During the same session, the Australian dollar, rising more than 1 percent. Nevertheless, the analysis of Westpac, Sean Callow, estimated that next March the Australian currency will decline to 0.68 per US dollar.
Oil prices fell to 3 percent in the trading session last night as a result of Iran's plan to increase the supply of oil. "The statement that Iran plans to raise export as much as 500,000 barrels a day within six months after the sanctions were lifted, the news is not good for oil," said Head of Markets CMC Markets, Ric Spooner. Iran also clarify its plans to cut prices in order to restore the proper export market share.
Currency most affected by the current oil price environment is actually the Canadian Dollar. The Canadian dollar continued to decline following the oil price, US dollar drop face because oil is a major Canadian export.
The Australian dollar will weaken with Iron Ore Price
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar remained firm despite Australia's major commodity prices, namely iron ore, continues to decline. But strategists CNBC bet that if the condition of the iron ore price continues the commodity currencies will continue to weaken. The price of the core components of the steel makers rose above 40 Australian dollars per ton, but still continue to fall by nearly 11 percent last month. During the same session, the Australian dollar, rising more than 1 percent. Nevertheless, the analysis of Westpac, Sean Callow, estimated that next March the Australian currency will decline to 0.68 per US dollar.
Monday, December 28, 2015
Thin Dollar Rebound On Yen
The dollar rebounded against the yen but was still stuck in the lowest level in two months against the yen in Asian trade today.
The dollar rose slightly against the yen after Japanese data came out disappointing. Japan's industrial output fell 1% in November, more than forecast 0.6%, indicating sluggish export demand. Other data showed retail sales also fell 1% in the same month, exceeding the 0.6% forecast. Both data added to speculation the BOJ someday have to add stimulus.
Yet the dollar remains near its lowest level in two months on the Japanese currency. Basically, the dollar is still in a correction phase due to profit taking after the sharp gains due to rising interest rates the Fed.
Throughout December, the dollar index has weakened 2%, but still up 8% so far this year, driven by the prospect of interest rate hikes by the Fed.
Without supported by the prospect of continued rise, the dollar trend is expected difficulty maintaining its gains. According to projections, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates as much as 3-4 times the next year, with further rises projected in March.
Ahead of the holiday season, where most of the world's financial markets were closed, the transaction exchange rate diminished make currency movements terbatas.Beberapa market, including in Australia and most of Europe, was closed today after the Christmas break. Plus there is no important events scheduled for this day. Entering the end of the year, currency movements or limited possibilities ranging.
GBPUSD Bullish; Supervise Support
Preferences: Bullish
Area Reference: Note 1.49109 - 1.48905 (look for bullish signal confirmation)
Support: 1.49109, 1.48905, 1.48576
Resistance: 1.49439, 1.49819, 1.50302
Comment :
In general, GBP / USD at 1 hourly chart looks still in bullish condition and the current price is consolidating. Beware, stochastic indicator is in oversold condition. Note that if the price moves downwards and retained strong support area around 1.48905 - 1.49109 then look for buy signals are confirmed in the area where there is potential price will again move up towards the next resistance in the range of 1.49439 - 1.49819. Instead, be alert if prices break through support at 1.48905 then there is likely price will move down towards the next support at around 1.48576.
Area Reference: Note 1.49109 - 1.48905 (look for bullish signal confirmation)
Support: 1.49109, 1.48905, 1.48576
Resistance: 1.49439, 1.49819, 1.50302
Comment :
In general, GBP / USD at 1 hourly chart looks still in bullish condition and the current price is consolidating. Beware, stochastic indicator is in oversold condition. Note that if the price moves downwards and retained strong support area around 1.48905 - 1.49109 then look for buy signals are confirmed in the area where there is potential price will again move up towards the next resistance in the range of 1.49439 - 1.49819. Instead, be alert if prices break through support at 1.48905 then there is likely price will move down towards the next support at around 1.48576.
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
New Zealand Trade Balance Lifting NZD / USD
New Zealand dollar edged higher against the Greenback, still stuck in the range of 0.68 after the release of the trade balance in November. New Zealand trade balance deficit better than expected.
Today (23/12), the pair NZD / USD tends to be flat at 0.6813 and edged higher only 0:10 per cent, supported by New Zealand's trade balance report which recorded the lowest deficit during the past four months. Previous New Zealand dollar has rallied for three consecutive days. However, the strengthening Kiwi restrained by the US dollar got up to follow the US GDP surges. At time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) began to rise towards 98.2 0:02 percent.
According to data taken from Statistics New Zealand, mom trade deficit contracted from 905 million in October to only 779 million dollars, better than the consensus forecast of 810 million Dollars. The achievement is supported by a surge in exports to China by 17 percent, while neighboring countries Australia actually decreased 4.1 percent.
During the year 2015 up to November, the trade balance New Zealand suffered a minus of 3.7 billion dollars, the highest since April 2009. Meanwhile, if drawn from an annual basis, a deficit increasingly November swelled to -3.68 billion -3.18 billion dollars from the same month last year, but still below analysts' estimates as much as -3.76 billion Dollars.
Today (23/12), the pair NZD / USD tends to be flat at 0.6813 and edged higher only 0:10 per cent, supported by New Zealand's trade balance report which recorded the lowest deficit during the past four months. Previous New Zealand dollar has rallied for three consecutive days. However, the strengthening Kiwi restrained by the US dollar got up to follow the US GDP surges. At time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) began to rise towards 98.2 0:02 percent.
According to data taken from Statistics New Zealand, mom trade deficit contracted from 905 million in October to only 779 million dollars, better than the consensus forecast of 810 million Dollars. The achievement is supported by a surge in exports to China by 17 percent, while neighboring countries Australia actually decreased 4.1 percent.
During the year 2015 up to November, the trade balance New Zealand suffered a minus of 3.7 billion dollars, the highest since April 2009. Meanwhile, if drawn from an annual basis, a deficit increasingly November swelled to -3.68 billion -3.18 billion dollars from the same month last year, but still below analysts' estimates as much as -3.76 billion Dollars.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
EUR/USD: dollar mixed near its highs
The EUR/USD pair set a fresh weekly high of 1.0960 ahead of the release of US Q3 GDP data, finally revised to 2.0% from 1.9% expected. The pair retreated some with the news, as despite below expected, the figures are still showing some solid growth in the country. Earlier in the day, Germany released the CFK consumer confidence survey...
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Stable US dollar, US GDP Data Wait Later Tonight
The US dollar stabilized observed in Tuesday (22/12) morning after little to loosen his muscles against the currencies of the Euro zone in the middle obscurity Spanish election results. Meanwhile, traders will look to US data to be released later that night on home sales (existing home sales) and Final GDP data.
EUR / USD steady at 1.0910 position, after gaining 0.4 percent last night amid short covering following the Spanish election last Sunday. However, the acquisition of which was achieved by EUR / USD earlier was not long because there has been no clear decision of the Spanish government about who wins the election. This raises concerns about the reform of the country's economy the strongest economy in the Euro Zone No. 4 this.
The Trading Week Ahead Sepi Vacation
"Rise of the Euro occurred in a deserted market and more movement due to position adjustments, the strengthening of the Euro does not seem to be sustainable," wrote Masafumi Yamamoto, Chief Forex Strategist Mizuho Securities in Tokyo, quoted by Reuters.
On the other hand, against the yen, the US dollar was little changed with USD / JPY which reached 121.24 yen, after moving in a narrow range a few days ago that in the range of 121.16 to 121.50. Post-meeting yesterday BOJ monetary policy, Governor Kuroda said that the Japanese economy is still in rising inflation towards the target of 2 percent, so that according to the most appropriate step at this time is not add to monetary easing, although QE activity will still be supervised and can be expanded if needed.
Near holiday season is increasingly making financial markets limit their activities and make the currency-the currency moved in a range that tight. Although it is still digesting the Fed's monetary policy last week about how the continuation of the Fed's interest rate hikes, most traders seem to prefer not to take a position on the market since at least the release of key economic data ahead of the Christmas holiday and New Year.
EUR / USD steady at 1.0910 position, after gaining 0.4 percent last night amid short covering following the Spanish election last Sunday. However, the acquisition of which was achieved by EUR / USD earlier was not long because there has been no clear decision of the Spanish government about who wins the election. This raises concerns about the reform of the country's economy the strongest economy in the Euro Zone No. 4 this.
The Trading Week Ahead Sepi Vacation
"Rise of the Euro occurred in a deserted market and more movement due to position adjustments, the strengthening of the Euro does not seem to be sustainable," wrote Masafumi Yamamoto, Chief Forex Strategist Mizuho Securities in Tokyo, quoted by Reuters.
On the other hand, against the yen, the US dollar was little changed with USD / JPY which reached 121.24 yen, after moving in a narrow range a few days ago that in the range of 121.16 to 121.50. Post-meeting yesterday BOJ monetary policy, Governor Kuroda said that the Japanese economy is still in rising inflation towards the target of 2 percent, so that according to the most appropriate step at this time is not add to monetary easing, although QE activity will still be supervised and can be expanded if needed.
Near holiday season is increasingly making financial markets limit their activities and make the currency-the currency moved in a range that tight. Although it is still digesting the Fed's monetary policy last week about how the continuation of the Fed's interest rate hikes, most traders seem to prefer not to take a position on the market since at least the release of key economic data ahead of the Christmas holiday and New Year.
Monday, December 21, 2015
Improved Gold Price, Inversely With Dollar
Gold prices continue strengthening improved sharply at the close of last week. Overcast US dollar also helped gold to reverse the decline in the price of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Today (21/12), spot gold slightly uphill then 0.25 per cent to 1069.00 US dollars per troy ounce, continuing rise in the value of sales 1.4 per cent on Friday (18/12) last week. Precious metals actions affected the transfer of the investment in save-haven assets after global financial markets fell sharply following the drop in oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six other major currencies, weakened 0:05 percent towards 98.66.
Last week, gold has weakened 2 percent when the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates by 25 basis points. With the condition of higher interest rates, tend to be too good for gold demand and limit further price increases. As quoted by CNBC, the results of a poll conducted by Reuters showed that two-thirds of the economists predict the Fed will again increase in US interest rates next three months.
The next week, gold futures transaction volume is expected to remain thin due to the Christmas holiday and many traders who have done close the book before the end of the year. Such conditions reduce the liquidity in the market and increase volatility. US economic indicators to watch out for this week is GDP, durable goods orders, home sales and jobless claims.
Today (21/12), spot gold slightly uphill then 0.25 per cent to 1069.00 US dollars per troy ounce, continuing rise in the value of sales 1.4 per cent on Friday (18/12) last week. Precious metals actions affected the transfer of the investment in save-haven assets after global financial markets fell sharply following the drop in oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six other major currencies, weakened 0:05 percent towards 98.66.
Last week, gold has weakened 2 percent when the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates by 25 basis points. With the condition of higher interest rates, tend to be too good for gold demand and limit further price increases. As quoted by CNBC, the results of a poll conducted by Reuters showed that two-thirds of the economists predict the Fed will again increase in US interest rates next three months.
The next week, gold futures transaction volume is expected to remain thin due to the Christmas holiday and many traders who have done close the book before the end of the year. Such conditions reduce the liquidity in the market and increase volatility. US economic indicators to watch out for this week is GDP, durable goods orders, home sales and jobless claims.
EUR / JPY 21-25 December 2015
EUR / JPY during the past week was dominated by the direction of the market with a strong price correction. Pairs is down to 140 pips from the opening price of 133.09 and closed at 132.69 with the highest price level at 133.77 and the lowest price levels 131.03.
Level 0 and 100 in the Fibonacci retracement week period 30 November to 4 December 2015 has not been able to be uprooted at weekly candle period 14 to 18 December 2015 fibo indicates they can be used for this week. Based on the analysis of weekly periods is said that the price level as a correction lies in the Fibo level 50, 61 and 76 has been pierced. Point correction should have been exhausted masses and the direction the market further towards Fibonacci level 0. However, if that does not happen then the critical level for correction at the 100 level; plus 50 pips from that level, the reversal may occur and the trend will be down.
Level 0 and 100 in the Fibonacci retracement week period 30 November to 4 December 2015 has not been able to be uprooted at weekly candle period 14 to 18 December 2015 fibo indicates they can be used for this week. Based on the analysis of weekly periods is said that the price level as a correction lies in the Fibo level 50, 61 and 76 has been pierced. Point correction should have been exhausted masses and the direction the market further towards Fibonacci level 0. However, if that does not happen then the critical level for correction at the 100 level; plus 50 pips from that level, the reversal may occur and the trend will be down.
Fibonacci measured by candle dated December 3, 2015 at the daily timeframe chart still has not touched on level 0 and 100. The blue indicator moving average (MA 13) and red (MA 4) has been intersected to go down, but only the red moving average that can be cut green moving average (MA 50); while stochastic oscillator today is still near the oversold area. Market pairs five days to come will be trying to go up, but also should be wary of fundamental data to support these pairs. It can be seen from the following fundamental news that the euro zone do not seem too support on Thursday and Friday.
Sunday, December 20, 2015
Fundamental Data Recap 21-25 December 2015
After the increase in the federal funds rate last week the greenback gained versus all major currencies except the NZD. The increase in the benchmark interest rate first since 2006 shows the confidence the central bank on the US economy continues to improve. To projected growth, unemployment and inflation in 2016 is slightly lower than projected in September, but Yellen remains confident that the inflation rate will grow and reach the target of 2.0%.
FOMC members agreed unanimously to raise the benchmark interest rate from the previous 0 - 0:25%, which has been running since August 2009 to 0:25% - 0:50%, and it also marks the beginning of an era of tightening the monetary policy of the Fed. As shown in 'dot plot' which was released to coincide with economic projections, each of which will have 4 rise in 2016 and 2017. From the projections of the Fed, the benchmark interest rate in 2016 will be in the range of 0.9% - 1.4% and in 2017 between 1.9% - 3.0%, lower than the projection in September were 1.1% - 2.1% for 2016 and 2.1% - 3.4% for 2017. However, according to the decision to increase gradually Yellen will also depend on the economic fundamental data.
Of history a few years ago, usually USD will experience a correction due to profit taking after rising interest rates, but at the end of the year is usually the USD strengthened. For this week's important data from the US is the quarter final GDP to 3, Durable Goods Orders, housing data, and the UoM index Jobless Claims. Another important data is the GDP of the United Kingdom and Canada, Japan CPI and Retail Sales Canada.
FOMC members agreed unanimously to raise the benchmark interest rate from the previous 0 - 0:25%, which has been running since August 2009 to 0:25% - 0:50%, and it also marks the beginning of an era of tightening the monetary policy of the Fed. As shown in 'dot plot' which was released to coincide with economic projections, each of which will have 4 rise in 2016 and 2017. From the projections of the Fed, the benchmark interest rate in 2016 will be in the range of 0.9% - 1.4% and in 2017 between 1.9% - 3.0%, lower than the projection in September were 1.1% - 2.1% for 2016 and 2.1% - 3.4% for 2017. However, according to the decision to increase gradually Yellen will also depend on the economic fundamental data.
Of history a few years ago, usually USD will experience a correction due to profit taking after rising interest rates, but at the end of the year is usually the USD strengthened. For this week's important data from the US is the quarter final GDP to 3, Durable Goods Orders, housing data, and the UoM index Jobless Claims. Another important data is the GDP of the United Kingdom and Canada, Japan CPI and Retail Sales Canada.
Friday, December 18, 2015
Euro Gains As US Dollar Take a Breath
The European Central Bank (ECB) this afternoon (18/12) reported data on the euro zone's current account recorded a surplus of 20.4 billion euros in numbers. Whereas the financial account, combined with portfolio investment increased to 98 billion euros in assets and 51 billion euros in liabilities (pasifa). If the Euro-zone current account is calculated as accumulated until October 2015, the surplus recorded was 299.9 billion or 2.9 percent of the overall GDP of the Euro Zone.
Dollar Take Breath
This afternoon, the euro began to gather strength against the US dollar with EUR / USD rose 12:30 percent to 1.0858 figure. The US dollar itself this afternoon began to relax the muscles of the currency-major currencies as markets take a breath from the strengthening of the US dollar yesterday after the FOMC. Until this morning, the US dollar remained at a high level two-week high against the currencies of major currencies.
Thursday, FOMC Council agreed to raise the benchmark interest rate in the US new level, which is then 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent. Thus, the benchmark interest rate the Fed now is 12:25 percent, up from 0 percent previously. Regardless of the policy, the policy makers estimate the appropriate level of interest rates until the end of 2016 could reach 1,375 percent. Meanwhile, the German business climate index slightly receded with German business confidence reached only 108.7 from the previous 109.0 figure in November. Estimates of economists by Bloomberg expect the German Ifo numbers will not be amended.
Dollar Take Breath
This afternoon, the euro began to gather strength against the US dollar with EUR / USD rose 12:30 percent to 1.0858 figure. The US dollar itself this afternoon began to relax the muscles of the currency-major currencies as markets take a breath from the strengthening of the US dollar yesterday after the FOMC. Until this morning, the US dollar remained at a high level two-week high against the currencies of major currencies.
Thursday, FOMC Council agreed to raise the benchmark interest rate in the US new level, which is then 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent. Thus, the benchmark interest rate the Fed now is 12:25 percent, up from 0 percent previously. Regardless of the policy, the policy makers estimate the appropriate level of interest rates until the end of 2016 could reach 1,375 percent. Meanwhile, the German business climate index slightly receded with German business confidence reached only 108.7 from the previous 109.0 figure in November. Estimates of economists by Bloomberg expect the German Ifo numbers will not be amended.
USD / JPY slips after BOJ Monetary Policy in December 2015
Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain the monetary stimulus targeted on Friday (18/12) this. Monetary stimulus remains disbursed amounting to 80 Trillion Yen and it is in conformity with the expectations of many analysts. While analysts still argue about when would be the BOJ will add stimulus, market attention leading up to the speech BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, following the policy meeting.
Kuroda: Not Change Policy More Right
Governor Kuroda, felt that the Japanese economy is still in rising inflation towards the target of 2 percent, so that the most appropriate measures according to the moment is not to add to monetary easing, although QE activity will still be supervised and can be expanded if needed.
BOJ benchmark interest rate is still maintained at the level of 0:10 per cent in line with expectations, the results of voting 8: 1, but they agreed to extend the maturity of the purchase of Japanese government bonds from 7 years to 12 years.
According to Kuroda, the Japanese business sentiment is still quite satisfactory and export menagalami increase. Although semikian, he admitted that there was a "stain" which weakens the economy, namely the weakness of inflation. In the second half of 2016, Japan's core inflation is expected to reach the target of 2 percent.
In addition, Kuroda also mentioned the Tankan business sentiment data. According to him, senetimen business in the country can still survive, but there are a number of signals that need to be wary of. After this report, monitored yen strengthened against the US dollar, with USD / JPY declining again to below the level of 122, exactly at number 121 735 in the afternoon when the news was written.
Kuroda: Not Change Policy More Right
Governor Kuroda, felt that the Japanese economy is still in rising inflation towards the target of 2 percent, so that the most appropriate measures according to the moment is not to add to monetary easing, although QE activity will still be supervised and can be expanded if needed.
BOJ benchmark interest rate is still maintained at the level of 0:10 per cent in line with expectations, the results of voting 8: 1, but they agreed to extend the maturity of the purchase of Japanese government bonds from 7 years to 12 years.
According to Kuroda, the Japanese business sentiment is still quite satisfactory and export menagalami increase. Although semikian, he admitted that there was a "stain" which weakens the economy, namely the weakness of inflation. In the second half of 2016, Japan's core inflation is expected to reach the target of 2 percent.
In addition, Kuroda also mentioned the Tankan business sentiment data. According to him, senetimen business in the country can still survive, but there are a number of signals that need to be wary of. After this report, monitored yen strengthened against the US dollar, with USD / JPY declining again to below the level of 122, exactly at number 121 735 in the afternoon when the news was written.
Thursday, December 17, 2015
The US dollar Show Superiority of Post US rate hike in 2015
The US dollar drove up against the Euro and yen after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 0.25 percent from zero, for the first time in nearly a decade. The latest statement of the FOMC this year also showed a decrease in its estimate for the increase in the benchmark interest rate, and this policy be the injection of energy for the US currency.
The US dollar rose 0.2 percent against the euro, with EUR / USD was bought at the price of 1.0908 in this morning's trading session, plunged by 40 pips at the beginning of the Asian trading session. USD / JPY rose 0.5 percent 122.26 penetrating position, towards the highest level since December 8. Meanwhile, the dollar index version of the Wall Street Journal observed numbers rose 0.2 percent to 90.10. USD / CAD jumped to a high level of 1.3845, the latest figures decline Loonie against the Greenback in addition to increasing the supply of oil that suppress the price of oil as the mainstay of Canada.
The US dollar and Fed Rate Increase Plan Next
The Fed signaled to mengetakatkan policy into a positive tone for the Dollar. "It is quite positive for the dollar," said Brad Betchel, managing director of currency sales and trading at Jefferies LLC quoted by WSJ.
The higher the planned increase in the federal funds rate for 2016, then the higher the likelihood semain dollar will gain acquisition. Meanwhile, the slower the policy tightening next year, then it is likely to make the US dollar weakened.
Higher US interest rates make the dollar more attractive because the returns to assets terdenominasi the greenback pushed higher. However, the Fed has said that the policy interest rate depends on economic data and rising interest rates was likely to be made gradually. In addition, global growth is also a concern of the Fed. Jebloknya commodity prices and developing economies will also be a concern of the Fed to raise interest rates in a few weeks or a few months.
According to the analysis of Pares Upadhyaya, Director of Forex Trading at Pioneer Investments, in general for 2016 economic factors will be positive for the US dollar. "Divergence of monetary policy and interest rate will be the prime mover dollar," said Upadhyaya.
The US dollar rose 0.2 percent against the euro, with EUR / USD was bought at the price of 1.0908 in this morning's trading session, plunged by 40 pips at the beginning of the Asian trading session. USD / JPY rose 0.5 percent 122.26 penetrating position, towards the highest level since December 8. Meanwhile, the dollar index version of the Wall Street Journal observed numbers rose 0.2 percent to 90.10. USD / CAD jumped to a high level of 1.3845, the latest figures decline Loonie against the Greenback in addition to increasing the supply of oil that suppress the price of oil as the mainstay of Canada.
The US dollar and Fed Rate Increase Plan Next
The Fed signaled to mengetakatkan policy into a positive tone for the Dollar. "It is quite positive for the dollar," said Brad Betchel, managing director of currency sales and trading at Jefferies LLC quoted by WSJ.
The higher the planned increase in the federal funds rate for 2016, then the higher the likelihood semain dollar will gain acquisition. Meanwhile, the slower the policy tightening next year, then it is likely to make the US dollar weakened.
Higher US interest rates make the dollar more attractive because the returns to assets terdenominasi the greenback pushed higher. However, the Fed has said that the policy interest rate depends on economic data and rising interest rates was likely to be made gradually. In addition, global growth is also a concern of the Fed. Jebloknya commodity prices and developing economies will also be a concern of the Fed to raise interest rates in a few weeks or a few months.
According to the analysis of Pares Upadhyaya, Director of Forex Trading at Pioneer Investments, in general for 2016 economic factors will be positive for the US dollar. "Divergence of monetary policy and interest rate will be the prime mover dollar," said Upadhyaya.
The Fed's rate hike lower gold price
Today (17/12), the price of gold terhempaskan by the decision of the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates. Overnight, gold had surged before determining the benchmark.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adds to the range limit of the US interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25 to 0.5 percent, which ended the long debate about the readiness of the US economy in the face of higher lending rates. Although the Fed decision removes an overhang on the price of gold, the focus now shifts to how quickly the US central bank will raise interest rates again in the future.
This precious metal has sunk nearly 10 percent over 2015, mostly due to the uncertainty of the timing of the rise in US interest rates and the market fears that high interest rates will reduce the demand on non-yielding assets like gold. Spot gold dims 00:47 percent to the US dollar 1,067.55 per troy ounce. Last night, have rallied ahead of the interest rate the Fed and managed to retain most of the price gains after central bank statement and closed up 1.2 percent.
"The movement of gold has unusually sensitive to changes in monetary policy for many months. The increase in interest rates could eventually remove the uncertainty of the bullion market," said HSBC analyst James Steel quoted on CNBC. The investors have increased short-covering trade in gold to near record highs, although this time has decreased. The dollar jumped nearly one percent against the currencies of major, as one of the factors that can limit the action of short-covering.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adds to the range limit of the US interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25 to 0.5 percent, which ended the long debate about the readiness of the US economy in the face of higher lending rates. Although the Fed decision removes an overhang on the price of gold, the focus now shifts to how quickly the US central bank will raise interest rates again in the future.
This precious metal has sunk nearly 10 percent over 2015, mostly due to the uncertainty of the timing of the rise in US interest rates and the market fears that high interest rates will reduce the demand on non-yielding assets like gold. Spot gold dims 00:47 percent to the US dollar 1,067.55 per troy ounce. Last night, have rallied ahead of the interest rate the Fed and managed to retain most of the price gains after central bank statement and closed up 1.2 percent.
"The movement of gold has unusually sensitive to changes in monetary policy for many months. The increase in interest rates could eventually remove the uncertainty of the bullion market," said HSBC analyst James Steel quoted on CNBC. The investors have increased short-covering trade in gold to near record highs, although this time has decreased. The dollar jumped nearly one percent against the currencies of major, as one of the factors that can limit the action of short-covering.
Oil Prices Continue to Decline After US Interest Rate Determination
In the Asian session trading session after the establishment of the US interest rates today (17/12), crude oil futures continued to decline. The decline in oil prices was also influenced by the increase in US oil reserves according to the EIA report.
Oil futures contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery next month 00:34 percent shrink towards 35.38 US dollars per barrel, after closing slumped nearly 5 percent on Wednesday (16/12) due to the addition of oil stocks in the US. At the same time, Brent oil for February delivery also fell 0.63 per cent to USD 37.18 per barrel. International benchmark oil futures ended the day session 1:34 ago with a dollar decline.
According to data compiled by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday evening, the oil reserves in the United States last week grew due to an increase in imports. EIA reported that there were 4.8 million increase in US oil inventories be 490.7 million barrels, far exceeding the results of a Reuters analyst poll that predicted a reduction of 1.4 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose 1.7 million barrels, distillate fuel followed by 2.6 million barrels.
Early this morning, the Federal Reserve finally announced a rise in US interest rates for the first time for nearly a decade, indicating the US economy has managed to overcome the disastrous financial crisis 2007-2009. Higher rates of reference specifically to support the strengthening of the US dollar makes oil and other commodities are traded with the greenback become more expensive.
Oil futures contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery next month 00:34 percent shrink towards 35.38 US dollars per barrel, after closing slumped nearly 5 percent on Wednesday (16/12) due to the addition of oil stocks in the US. At the same time, Brent oil for February delivery also fell 0.63 per cent to USD 37.18 per barrel. International benchmark oil futures ended the day session 1:34 ago with a dollar decline.
According to data compiled by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday evening, the oil reserves in the United States last week grew due to an increase in imports. EIA reported that there were 4.8 million increase in US oil inventories be 490.7 million barrels, far exceeding the results of a Reuters analyst poll that predicted a reduction of 1.4 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose 1.7 million barrels, distillate fuel followed by 2.6 million barrels.
Early this morning, the Federal Reserve finally announced a rise in US interest rates for the first time for nearly a decade, indicating the US economy has managed to overcome the disastrous financial crisis 2007-2009. Higher rates of reference specifically to support the strengthening of the US dollar makes oil and other commodities are traded with the greenback become more expensive.
EUR/USD hits fresh highs as Yellen speaks following historic rate hike
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD bounced from 1.0885 and rose breaking above previous highs, hitting 1.0992 after the first words of Janet Yellen. Then it moved of daily highs, but is was holding above 1.0940 as the US dollar reverses across the board.
The Federal Reserve rose the interest rate to 0.25% - 0.50%, and like Yellen said it ended an era. The central bank said that further hikes would be gradual. After the release of the statement, greenback rose in the market hitting new highs but then bounced to the downside, erasing all gains.
Yellen is speaking and then will answer journalists questions while trades will look for clues about the future path of monetary policy.
EUR/USD within weekly range
Despite the historic move by the FED, EUR/USD still remains moving sideways within the range of the previous days. To the upside, the key resistance continues to be between 1.1030 and 1.1060 that capped the upside during the last five trading days and were also the 100 and 200-day MA currently stand. A break higher could open the doors for an extension of the bullish run.
On the opposite direction, 1.0900 is the area to watch. Recently the pair traded momentarily below but it was rejected. A consolidations under 1.09 would weaken the euro in the short-term, while below, the next support to watch is the 20-day MA located at 1.0780/90.
The Federal Reserve rose the interest rate to 0.25% - 0.50%, and like Yellen said it ended an era. The central bank said that further hikes would be gradual. After the release of the statement, greenback rose in the market hitting new highs but then bounced to the downside, erasing all gains.
Yellen is speaking and then will answer journalists questions while trades will look for clues about the future path of monetary policy.
EUR/USD within weekly range
Despite the historic move by the FED, EUR/USD still remains moving sideways within the range of the previous days. To the upside, the key resistance continues to be between 1.1030 and 1.1060 that capped the upside during the last five trading days and were also the 100 and 200-day MA currently stand. A break higher could open the doors for an extension of the bullish run.
On the opposite direction, 1.0900 is the area to watch. Recently the pair traded momentarily below but it was rejected. A consolidations under 1.09 would weaken the euro in the short-term, while below, the next support to watch is the 20-day MA located at 1.0780/90.
Fed raises rates by to 0.25%-0.50% as expected
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Federal Reserve raised the target range for federal funds to 0.25% - 0.50% in an unanimous decision that was also widely expected by markets.
“The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.”
The Fed also said that economic conditions could warrant “only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.”
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will address the press at 19:30 GMT.
Fed dot plot
The Fed also released the economic projections. FOMC officials made small changes in their views of economic activity, and they don't expect inflation to achieve their 2% target until 2018.
The median expected federal funds rate target at the end of 2016 is 1.375%, matching September's projection. The median view of the longer-run level also held steady at 3.50%.
“The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.”
The Fed also said that economic conditions could warrant “only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.”
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will address the press at 19:30 GMT.
Fed dot plot
The Fed also released the economic projections. FOMC officials made small changes in their views of economic activity, and they don't expect inflation to achieve their 2% target until 2018.
The median expected federal funds rate target at the end of 2016 is 1.375%, matching September's projection. The median view of the longer-run level also held steady at 3.50%.
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
EUR/USD: waiting is about to end
The American dollar trades higher ahead of the FED's latest meeting outcome, advancing mostly on sentiment rather than anything else. The pair traded as low as 1.0911 and recovered a handful of pips above the level, with the greenback holding into gains after the release of solid housing data. According to official data, new-home construction climbed 10.5% in November, to a 1.17 million...
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US Dollar More Attractive Approaching The Fed Policy Announcement
The US dollar moved higher in Wednesday (16/12) this morning following the US bond yields which bounced higher ahead of US rate hike decision is increasingly close. Most market estimates that the US Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates for the first time after eight years after the global financial crisis.
Discourse of the Fed's interest rate hikes is already in anticipation of the market since last year, so now investors are more keen to interpret how fast the US Central Bank in tightening policy starting from the initial decision. According to Ray Attrill, Chief Forex Strategist at National Australia Bank, if the earlier investors can only wait without being able to do anything, then now is the time to make decisions.
Stronger dollar
The US dollar index is at position 98 144, got a 0.6 percent gain since Tuesday. Against the yen, the greenback jumped above 121.50, off a low of 120.35 levels. Meanwhile, EUR / USD traded near 1.0900 after earlier hitting a seven-week peak 1.1060 figure.
Major currencies were weaker against the US Dollar today is the Australian dollar. AUD / USD goes down below the 0.72 level from the high level of 0.7283 yesterday. Traders are looking for a reason to sell the Aussie them after comments RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, who said that he wants a weaker currency to boost Australia's commodity sales.
According to analysts from RB Paribas, USD weakening US - seen from the current position - appears to slowly diminish. The US dollar is now in an attractive level-currency versus other major currencies. Contrary to previous estimates, the Dollar is expected to be strengthened after the announcement of the tight monetary policy of the Fed tomorrow.
Discourse of the Fed's interest rate hikes is already in anticipation of the market since last year, so now investors are more keen to interpret how fast the US Central Bank in tightening policy starting from the initial decision. According to Ray Attrill, Chief Forex Strategist at National Australia Bank, if the earlier investors can only wait without being able to do anything, then now is the time to make decisions.
Stronger dollar
The US dollar index is at position 98 144, got a 0.6 percent gain since Tuesday. Against the yen, the greenback jumped above 121.50, off a low of 120.35 levels. Meanwhile, EUR / USD traded near 1.0900 after earlier hitting a seven-week peak 1.1060 figure.
Major currencies were weaker against the US Dollar today is the Australian dollar. AUD / USD goes down below the 0.72 level from the high level of 0.7283 yesterday. Traders are looking for a reason to sell the Aussie them after comments RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, who said that he wants a weaker currency to boost Australia's commodity sales.
According to analysts from RB Paribas, USD weakening US - seen from the current position - appears to slowly diminish. The US dollar is now in an attractive level-currency versus other major currencies. Contrary to previous estimates, the Dollar is expected to be strengthened after the announcement of the tight monetary policy of the Fed tomorrow.
Commodity Price Support, RBA Governor Wants More Australian Dollar Weak
The Australian dollar fell quite in since last night and became the weakest performing currency against the US dollar up to Wednesday (16/12) morning. Ahead of tomorrow night's FOMC decision, the Australian Dollar appear to set face and the Australian Dollar US Dollar due to the Central Bank Governor's comments of Australia (RBA), Glenn Stevens.
The Commodity Price Support Continue to sag
In an interview with a newspaper published today, Glenn Stevens said the Australian dollar should be weaker, as a form of "sympathy" to the decline in commodity prices. Financial Review, the name of the newspaper, citing Stevens, "The exchange rate will still be adjusted, such as function, and I noted that commodity prices continue to fall, so it is possible adjustments (impairment) further will happen."
In this year, said Stevens, commodity prices have gone down 12 percent. However, the number one in the RBA is still confident with the picture of the Australian economy, particularly with the growth of employment sectors fairly slick. "The increase in population in Australia has been accompanied by a rise in the labor sector, the increase in labor force participation, or at least be able to maintain the unemployment rate in a range that the flats." said Stevens.
AUD / USD began edged moment of writing, the position of 0.7198, after a 0.6 percent fade with the strengthening US dollar last night after US data on CPI. In addition to Stevens's comments this morning Australia also reported the MI Leading index drop 0.2 percent on a monthly basis.
Likewise with AUD / NZD, the commodity dollar pair goes down to the lowest level since November, and is now trading at 1.0658 figure. GDT auction New Zealand reported slightly increased. Such as iron ore against the Australian dollar, the price of milk powder also affects the movement of the New Zealand dollar.
The Commodity Price Support Continue to sag
In an interview with a newspaper published today, Glenn Stevens said the Australian dollar should be weaker, as a form of "sympathy" to the decline in commodity prices. Financial Review, the name of the newspaper, citing Stevens, "The exchange rate will still be adjusted, such as function, and I noted that commodity prices continue to fall, so it is possible adjustments (impairment) further will happen."
In this year, said Stevens, commodity prices have gone down 12 percent. However, the number one in the RBA is still confident with the picture of the Australian economy, particularly with the growth of employment sectors fairly slick. "The increase in population in Australia has been accompanied by a rise in the labor sector, the increase in labor force participation, or at least be able to maintain the unemployment rate in a range that the flats." said Stevens.
AUD / USD began edged moment of writing, the position of 0.7198, after a 0.6 percent fade with the strengthening US dollar last night after US data on CPI. In addition to Stevens's comments this morning Australia also reported the MI Leading index drop 0.2 percent on a monthly basis.
Likewise with AUD / NZD, the commodity dollar pair goes down to the lowest level since November, and is now trading at 1.0658 figure. GDT auction New Zealand reported slightly increased. Such as iron ore against the Australian dollar, the price of milk powder also affects the movement of the New Zealand dollar.
Weaker oil, Correction Sequential Two-Day Price Increase
Crude oil moved down in Asian trading session today (16/12), corrects the strengthening of two consecutive days earlier. An unexpected rise in US oil stockpiles suspected to be one of the causes of oil price movements become weakened.
On the Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermedate down about 1 percent, or 40 cents towards USD 36.85 per barrel after soaring more than 1 US dollar yesterday (15/12). On Monday, WTI had slumped reached 34.53 US dollars per barrel, but then closed higher. Until the time of writing, Brent oil trading as the benchmark international prices has not been opened. Brent contract ended the day Tuesday with a rise 53 cents to USD 38.45 US dollars per barrel, which is the highest position for 8 days later.
The Federal Reserve is conducting a two-day meeting, which is expected to generate an increase in US interest rates decision. The increase in key interest is seen as a negative impact on oil prices because it encourages the strengthening of the US dollar, making oil sales contract will be more expensive for holders of other currencies.
One marker signal of excess supply in the market is increasingly becoming, has emerged last night. Based on data collected by industry group American Petroleum Institute, an increase in US oil inventories by 2.3 million barrels last week. Increasing oil reserves are unexpected by analysts Reuters, which actually anticipated reduction in stocks of 1.4 mln barrels.
On the Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermedate down about 1 percent, or 40 cents towards USD 36.85 per barrel after soaring more than 1 US dollar yesterday (15/12). On Monday, WTI had slumped reached 34.53 US dollars per barrel, but then closed higher. Until the time of writing, Brent oil trading as the benchmark international prices has not been opened. Brent contract ended the day Tuesday with a rise 53 cents to USD 38.45 US dollars per barrel, which is the highest position for 8 days later.
The Federal Reserve is conducting a two-day meeting, which is expected to generate an increase in US interest rates decision. The increase in key interest is seen as a negative impact on oil prices because it encourages the strengthening of the US dollar, making oil sales contract will be more expensive for holders of other currencies.
One marker signal of excess supply in the market is increasingly becoming, has emerged last night. Based on data collected by industry group American Petroleum Institute, an increase in US oil inventories by 2.3 million barrels last week. Increasing oil reserves are unexpected by analysts Reuters, which actually anticipated reduction in stocks of 1.4 mln barrels.
EUR/USD: dollar advances, but caution prevails
EUR/USD Current price: 1.0988
The EUR/USD pair started the day with a strong footing, rallying up to 1.1059 ahead of the European opening. Yet the rally lost steam after London's opening bell, and the pair slowly eased, falling below the 1.1000 level before the release of the US inflation data, which resulted better-than-expected in November and compared to a year before, as it rose by 0.5% compared to previous 0.2%. Monthly basis however, inflation remained unchanged. The net readings, ex food and energy matched markets' expectations, overall positive and dollar supportive. The EUR/USD pair remains below the 1.1000 level ahead of the US opening, and the 1 hour chart shows that the price is currently below a mild bearish 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator lacks directional strength around the 100 level, and the RSI anticipates some further declines, heading lower around 46. In the 4 hours chart, the price is finding some short term support around a horizontal 20 SMA at 1.0980, while the technical indicators head lower, but still above their mid-lines, increasing the risk of a downward move towards the 1.0945 region.
Support levels: 1.0980 1.0945 1.0910
Resistance levels: 1.1000 1.1045 1.1080
GBP/USD Current price: 1.5152
The GBP/USD pair is stuck around the 1.5150 level, having been unable to attract investors this Tuesday, despite the release of the UK inflation data. Earlier today, the kingdom published its November data slightly better-than-expected, but far from resulting encouraging, as the CPI rose by 0.1% compared to a year before, but remained unchanged monthly basis. The producer price index fell further into the red in the same month, but the Pound held steady. Technically speaking, the short term picture is neutral, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is hovering around its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head nowhere around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the bias is neutral-to-bearish, given that the price is being capped by its 20 SMA, flat around 1.5165, while the technical indicators stand horizontal around their mid-lines.
Support levels: 1.5120 1.5090 1.5050
Resistance levels: 1.5165 1.5200 1.5240
USD/JPY Current price: 121.15
The USD/JPY pair trades near its daily high of 121.21, having erased all of its intraday losses ahead of the US opening. The pair has been capped by a slightly bearish 100 DMA ever since the week started, and retains an overall bearish tone in the longer term, albeit with the FED's outcome to be release in a bit more than 24 hours, is quite unlikely that technical readings will determinate the future of the pair in term. Shorter term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price remains below a bearish 100 SMA while the technical indicators are moving back and forth around their mid-lines, lacking clear directional strength. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have corrected higher, but hold well below their mid-lines, whilst the 100 and 200 DMAs converge around 122.40. Overall, the upside is expected to remain limited, with selling interest now probably waiting around 121.35.
Support levels: 121.00 120.60 120.30
Resistance levels: 121.35 121.70 122.20
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Pounds Not Gains After CPI UK November
UK CPI rate reported by PNS rose 0.1 percent in November compared with minus 0.1 percent than the previous month. Analysts expect CPI UK will fit in zero. Transportation costs and the price of alcohol and tobacco are the main contributors to the increase in UK inflation last month. Nevertheless, the price slump clothes carrying larger than the gains scored by the main contributors.
On the basis of this inflation is still dimness, the Bank of England (BOE) last week decided not to change interest rates in the range of 0.5 percent. And since then, the traders observed to stop assuming the BOE will soon follow the Fed to raise interest rates. England's monetary policy makers diperakan will wait until 2017.
Pound sterling was little changed against the US dollar, following the biggest drop in two weeks on Monday. GBP / USD was trading at 1.5148 figure after sliding 0.5 percent yesterday, while the EUR / GPB depreciated to 0.7275 figure.
On the basis of this inflation is still dimness, the Bank of England (BOE) last week decided not to change interest rates in the range of 0.5 percent. And since then, the traders observed to stop assuming the BOE will soon follow the Fed to raise interest rates. England's monetary policy makers diperakan will wait until 2017.
Pound sterling was little changed against the US dollar, following the biggest drop in two weeks on Monday. GBP / USD was trading at 1.5148 figure after sliding 0.5 percent yesterday, while the EUR / GPB depreciated to 0.7275 figure.
Forex trading plan for December 16
EUR / USD test the higher levels, but the buyer is stopped by the 100 day MA (1, 1060). German ZEW economic sentiment rose above expectations. Note the European PMIs at 08: 00-09: 00 GMT. Support is at the level of 1.0950, 1.0915 / 00, 1.0880 and 1.0800. Above the 1.1060 level we note the 1.1115 level.
USD / JPY tested levels above the 121.35 level. Staunchly below will open the way up to the level of 121.85 / 122. Support is at the level of 120.60 and 120.00.
GBP / USD rose after the US CPI, but still limited by the resistance at level 1.5200 / 40/80. Britain will release labor market data at 09:30 GMT. Focus on the average earnings index as related to inflation and inflation, in turn, determine the policy of the Bank of England. Predictions are negative. Support is at the level of 1.5100, 1.5050 and 1.4950
USD / JPY tested levels above the 121.35 level. Staunchly below will open the way up to the level of 121.85 / 122. Support is at the level of 120.60 and 120.00.
GBP / USD rose after the US CPI, but still limited by the resistance at level 1.5200 / 40/80. Britain will release labor market data at 09:30 GMT. Focus on the average earnings index as related to inflation and inflation, in turn, determine the policy of the Bank of England. Predictions are negative. Support is at the level of 1.5100, 1.5050 and 1.4950
NZD –Top performer in Asia, UK CPI, German ZEW – Up next
The Antipodean currencies extended their upbeat momentum into a second day this session, with the Kiwi emerging the best performer across the FX board. While the USD/JPY pair slipped...
Gold Price On December 15th, 2015: Back Again To Bearish Correction At 1063
Gold declines to almost USD9 ahead of FOMC meeting tomorrow. The precious metal is traded around 1063. Gold price consistenly fell behind strengthening USD, and continued to weaken recently due to Fed rate issue. Gold revenue has been leaning towards lower levels since 2012 because of price decrease. Volume rise in 2014 was counterbalanced by significant price loss. With the background of high production cost, Gold industry has been facing serious challenge as most producers failed to make a breakeven, for the average cost reached to USD1200/ounce, while seliing price was still below USD1100/ounce.
This week is one of the most important times for Gold since Fed is predicted to increase rates for the first time in almost a decade. In what would be their last meeting for this year, Fed is expected to hike US rates with positive economy data supporting the decision. The US central bank is forecasted to add a quarter poin for their interest rates, with analysts predicting on more lowerings in the following months. On the grounds of this liftoff, Merrill Lynch had stated its projection for Gold price to dip to USD950 in the beginning of 2016.
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Monday, December 14, 2015
EUR/USD: entering wait-and-see mode
The EUR/USD pair trades up and down within a tight range below the 1.1000 mark this Monday, mostly driven but European stocks movements. The EUR managed to advance some after the release of the EU Industrial Production data for October, which rose by 0.6% compared to a month before, and 1.9% yearly basis...
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AUD/USD flips to gains, flirts with 0.7200
After a weaker start to the week, the AUD bulls regained lost momentum and jumped back on the bids, bringing an end to the previous two consecutive days of heavy declines.Read more
IEA Global Oil Supply Projections The Overflowing
Oil prices sank at the opening of the Asian session today (14/12), after last Friday's International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a projection of the overflow will increasingly global oil supplies next year.
Late last week, Brent as a benchmark global oil prices traded less than USD 38 per barrel for the first time since December 2008 after the IEA stated that demand growth is slowing, while OPEC output remains high which refers to the abundance of larger supply within a few months forward. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also settled at around 35 US dollars per barrel while the number of oil wells in the US recorded the lowest level as last April 2010.
On the Mercantile Exchange, WTI delivery next month fell 25 points, or about 0.72 percent to 35.35 US dollars a barrel, having fallen 3.1 percent last week. Brent oil futures also slid 0.74 percent to the USD 37.66 per barrel, continuing decline 4.5 percent on Friday (11/12). Since the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) December 4 last, the two benchmark oil prices are weakening every day.
In a December report, the IEA projected oil demand growth in 2016 will be very slow. These conditions will widen the gap between the supply-demand imbalance in global oil. Next year, the IEA estimates that global demand will only grow by 1.2 million barrels, down from a previous forecast of 1.8 million barrels per day.
Late last week, Brent as a benchmark global oil prices traded less than USD 38 per barrel for the first time since December 2008 after the IEA stated that demand growth is slowing, while OPEC output remains high which refers to the abundance of larger supply within a few months forward. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also settled at around 35 US dollars per barrel while the number of oil wells in the US recorded the lowest level as last April 2010.
On the Mercantile Exchange, WTI delivery next month fell 25 points, or about 0.72 percent to 35.35 US dollars a barrel, having fallen 3.1 percent last week. Brent oil futures also slid 0.74 percent to the USD 37.66 per barrel, continuing decline 4.5 percent on Friday (11/12). Since the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) December 4 last, the two benchmark oil prices are weakening every day.
In a December report, the IEA projected oil demand growth in 2016 will be very slow. These conditions will widen the gap between the supply-demand imbalance in global oil. Next year, the IEA estimates that global demand will only grow by 1.2 million barrels, down from a previous forecast of 1.8 million barrels per day.
Japan's Tankan Business Sentiment Survey Stable, Stronger Yen
Japanese business sentiment was reported to be in stable condition in the three months to December, on Monday (14/12) morning. The survey results are also the subject of observations in the central bank's policy decisions, be an antidote to concerns arising from global economic uncertainty, and may affect the readiness of a company to draw up a budget.
Japanese Business Conditions Still Good
Tankan manufacturing index for companies in Japan steady at plus 12 for the fourth quarter, while the company's non-manufacturing index went down by one point to plus 18 from the previous plus 19. A positive number in the Tankan index indicates that most companies in the country of the Rising Sun is still projecting better business conditions. In addition, they also still firmly against capital expenditure plans up to March 2016.
This is a green light for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to try to encourage companies in Japan to invest their profits even more. Large companies are expected to increase capital expenditure as much as 10.8 percent in this fiscal year.
"A number of plants are likely to postpone their capital expenditure with respect to the reflection slowdown in China and the other developing countries. However, overall, these companies still retain their budget plan that is likely bullish," explained one member BOJ cited by Reuters.
For information, on Saturday, China released data on industrial production for November were up 6.2 per cent on an annual basis, with output growth of the industry is performing better than expected. After this report, the USD / JPY was trading at 120.86, down 0:10 percent after the data was announced.
Japanese Business Conditions Still Good
Tankan manufacturing index for companies in Japan steady at plus 12 for the fourth quarter, while the company's non-manufacturing index went down by one point to plus 18 from the previous plus 19. A positive number in the Tankan index indicates that most companies in the country of the Rising Sun is still projecting better business conditions. In addition, they also still firmly against capital expenditure plans up to March 2016.
This is a green light for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to try to encourage companies in Japan to invest their profits even more. Large companies are expected to increase capital expenditure as much as 10.8 percent in this fiscal year.
"A number of plants are likely to postpone their capital expenditure with respect to the reflection slowdown in China and the other developing countries. However, overall, these companies still retain their budget plan that is likely bullish," explained one member BOJ cited by Reuters.
For information, on Saturday, China released data on industrial production for November were up 6.2 per cent on an annual basis, with output growth of the industry is performing better than expected. After this report, the USD / JPY was trading at 120.86, down 0:10 percent after the data was announced.
Sunday, December 13, 2015
Technical Review Weekend: Daily EURUSD Inside Bar, Market Awaits FOMC
Buyers still trying to dominate trading EUR / USD up towards the close of the weekend, but the sellers respond not far from 1.1041 after the release of US data some fairly positive (Retail Sales, PPI and Consumer Sentiment). As a result, the price is still trapped in the range 1.1041 Inside Bar - 1.0878 which also reflects the market vigilance to anticipate the FOMC statement next week.
Reaction sellers and the failure of the breakout of the Inside Bar (above 1.1041) might also represent market expectations about the possibility of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month (December 2015) in the minutes of the FOMC which will be released next week (Thursday, December 17 at 02.00 am in the morning) ,
Technically, some analysis from renowned institutions interesting to note, for example, Nomura analysts who say that the EUR / USD needs a down-move that represents a wave-B that can target the 1.0807 to 1.1041 will act as key-resistance.
JP Morgan analyst is a bit more detail, saying that a break above 1.1087 will be able to change the map of Elliot Wave (short / mid-term), but the pullback from 1.1041 will be a bearish risk that could reach 1.0642. While analysts at Barclays Capital said that this time they are still stand-aside to wait for price action against the resistance 1.1085 / 1.1120 or to 1.0795 support.
Reaction sellers and the failure of the breakout of the Inside Bar (above 1.1041) might also represent market expectations about the possibility of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month (December 2015) in the minutes of the FOMC which will be released next week (Thursday, December 17 at 02.00 am in the morning) ,
Technically, some analysis from renowned institutions interesting to note, for example, Nomura analysts who say that the EUR / USD needs a down-move that represents a wave-B that can target the 1.0807 to 1.1041 will act as key-resistance.
JP Morgan analyst is a bit more detail, saying that a break above 1.1087 will be able to change the map of Elliot Wave (short / mid-term), but the pullback from 1.1041 will be a bearish risk that could reach 1.0642. While analysts at Barclays Capital said that this time they are still stand-aside to wait for price action against the resistance 1.1085 / 1.1120 or to 1.0795 support.
Friday, December 11, 2015
Gold Price On December 11th, 2015: Bearish Consolidative At 1069
Gold is consolidating in bearish sentiment at 1069, in anticipation of US retail sales today, as well as Fed desision on rate hike, which is currently supported by a 90 percent probability.
US import price in November was reported to be at -0.4 percent, down -0.1 percent from its previous result in October and also lower than expected. Export price suffered the same fate as it dipped to -0.6 percent in November, much lower than October's number at -0.2 percent. On the other hand, UN cut 0.4 point from 2015 global growth projection to 2.4 percent. US GDP in Q3 and Q4 were speculated to have been the main cause of that cut.
Technical Analysis
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