A knee-jerk rally in the USD/JPYpair lost steam near the mid-point of 121 handle, and from there the major reversed more than half BOJ-inspired rally, before climbing back higher to 120.20 last.
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Friday, January 29, 2016
Thursday, January 28, 2016
Kiwi stronger, despite dovish RBNZ, UK GDP – Next up
With the FOMC and RBNZ behind, focus turns back on the oil prices, they once again drive the market sentiment in Asia. Oil prices came under...
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Wednesday, January 27, 2016
AUD shrugs off better CPI as Oil resumes slide, FOMC in focus
A turnaround in risk conditions was witnessed in Asia after the US oil skid back in the red and triggered a renewed bout of risk-aversion across the financial markets. While the extended sell-off in Chinese...
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Monday, January 25, 2016
Australian Business Confidence Defense, NAB predicts weakening Aussie
Australia Business confidence is still quite mantab despite continued volatile market lately. Monthly Business Survey (NAB) showed a slight deterioration in business confidence Australia, from +5 in November to +3 in December 2015. Business conditions also still terkatrol although there are slight decline, from +10 points to +7 points.
"While oil prices are still in a great slump and equity markets still highlights the potential risks to the global outlook, business conditions are still relatively positive so far and still act to convince business sentiment." said Alan Oster, NAB Chief Economist quoted by ABC.
The bank noted that low interest rates and a depreciating Australian dollar has helped catapulted the service sector. Meanwhile, the retail sector and construction experienced a sizeable contraction in business conditions.
"The collapse of mining investment is still an impact on the field of construction, but we are also witnessing the loss of momentum-momentum in the construction industry in line with the Australian residential property market began to cool," said Oster.
NAB: Aussie will depreciate in the month of June 2016
The bank said business conditions still show a recovery in the non-mining sector, and is expected Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will still pay attention to how policies are currently working, before taking action lanut in the future. However, NAB's own forecast that the global outlook is still weaker and it cut its forecast global outlook to 3 percent in the 2016's.
The Australian dollar showed a slight increase 12:02 percent against the US dollar on Monday (25/01) morning today towards the 0.7014 figure. NAB predicts that the Australian dollar will drop to 0.66 per US dollar figures in June this year.
"While oil prices are still in a great slump and equity markets still highlights the potential risks to the global outlook, business conditions are still relatively positive so far and still act to convince business sentiment." said Alan Oster, NAB Chief Economist quoted by ABC.
The bank noted that low interest rates and a depreciating Australian dollar has helped catapulted the service sector. Meanwhile, the retail sector and construction experienced a sizeable contraction in business conditions.
"The collapse of mining investment is still an impact on the field of construction, but we are also witnessing the loss of momentum-momentum in the construction industry in line with the Australian residential property market began to cool," said Oster.
NAB: Aussie will depreciate in the month of June 2016
The bank said business conditions still show a recovery in the non-mining sector, and is expected Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will still pay attention to how policies are currently working, before taking action lanut in the future. However, NAB's own forecast that the global outlook is still weaker and it cut its forecast global outlook to 3 percent in the 2016's.
The Australian dollar showed a slight increase 12:02 percent against the US dollar on Monday (25/01) morning today towards the 0.7014 figure. NAB predicts that the Australian dollar will drop to 0.66 per US dollar figures in June this year.
Oil Prices Continue Rising Due to Blizzard
Until the opening of the trading session on Monday, oil prices continued to climb to continue strengthening in price since last week. Rising oil prices are influenced by short-covering and rising demand triggered by cold weather in the northern hemisphere.
Friday (22/1) ago, oil futures have gained 10 percent and a record for the highest daily price increases due to the steps traders rushed to close their short positions. Today (25/1), Brent futures contract delivery in March had risen to 0.12 percent of the US Dollar 32.22 per barrel, after touching USD 32.69. Likewise, the oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the NYMEX exchange has risen 0:06 percent towards USD 32.19 per barrel.
"Changes in investor sentiment is a major factor, with a speculative short position in WTI down from the historically high level last week," said ANZ Bank on WTI oil as quoted by CNBC. Late last week, Baker Hughes reported that the number of oil wells in the United States decreased 5 to 510 in the week ended January 15. Oil rigs operating in the US has declined for five consecutive weeks, though they actually increased oil production exceeded 9.2 million barrels per day.
Snowstorm that occurred in the US have added to the demand for heating oil and help bring the price of crude oil rose. Until now, Washington is still closed after a storm that causes a buildup of snow between half a meter to 1 meter. While the city of New York and Philadelphia just returned operate.
Friday (22/1) ago, oil futures have gained 10 percent and a record for the highest daily price increases due to the steps traders rushed to close their short positions. Today (25/1), Brent futures contract delivery in March had risen to 0.12 percent of the US Dollar 32.22 per barrel, after touching USD 32.69. Likewise, the oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the NYMEX exchange has risen 0:06 percent towards USD 32.19 per barrel.
"Changes in investor sentiment is a major factor, with a speculative short position in WTI down from the historically high level last week," said ANZ Bank on WTI oil as quoted by CNBC. Late last week, Baker Hughes reported that the number of oil wells in the United States decreased 5 to 510 in the week ended January 15. Oil rigs operating in the US has declined for five consecutive weeks, though they actually increased oil production exceeded 9.2 million barrels per day.
Snowstorm that occurred in the US have added to the demand for heating oil and help bring the price of crude oil rose. Until now, Washington is still closed after a storm that causes a buildup of snow between half a meter to 1 meter. While the city of New York and Philadelphia just returned operate.
Friday, January 22, 2016
Towards gold Increase in Weekly
Gold prices came under pressure, after the President of the ECB gave signs that it will continue its policy of monetary easing, as the turmoil in global markets and the weakening of growth in developing countries. However, gold is still on course for a record weekly price increases.
Today (22/1), spot gold was trading flat at around 1,099.20 per troy ounce, or down about 0.2 percent. However, in the weekly time period, the precious metal is still up 1 percent after touching its highest level of USD 1,109.20 on Wednesday (20/1) then. While on the Comex, gold futures contract for February delivery rose 12:32 per cent to USD 1,101.70 per troy ounce, after a day ago closed at 1,098.20 US Dollars.
President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi said that the decline of economic growth and inflation projections will force the ECB to conduct a review of its monetary policy in March. The statement is considered a strong signal about further monetary easing in the coming months. Euro immediately slumped significantly against the US dollar after Draghi statement, which affects the price of gold.
Bullion support the transfer of risk among investors when global stocks and oil prices fell. Although the demand for physical gold is still slowed from major consumer China and India, which limit further price gains. Premium Gold prices rose sharply in China this week, while the seller in India offer discounts against declining demand.
Today (22/1), spot gold was trading flat at around 1,099.20 per troy ounce, or down about 0.2 percent. However, in the weekly time period, the precious metal is still up 1 percent after touching its highest level of USD 1,109.20 on Wednesday (20/1) then. While on the Comex, gold futures contract for February delivery rose 12:32 per cent to USD 1,101.70 per troy ounce, after a day ago closed at 1,098.20 US Dollars.
President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi said that the decline of economic growth and inflation projections will force the ECB to conduct a review of its monetary policy in March. The statement is considered a strong signal about further monetary easing in the coming months. Euro immediately slumped significantly against the US dollar after Draghi statement, which affects the price of gold.
Bullion support the transfer of risk among investors when global stocks and oil prices fell. Although the demand for physical gold is still slowed from major consumer China and India, which limit further price gains. Premium Gold prices rose sharply in China this week, while the seller in India offer discounts against declining demand.
USD / JPY Maintain Position Manufacturing Japan Post Reports
Japanese manufacturing sector still looks solid expansion in January despite a slight decline in December last. Introduction Japanese Manufacturing Activity Index are showing progress, indicating that the manufacturing sector continues to bergeliat amid economic growth that is not so favorable.
Markit Manufacturing PMI index for the Japanese Nikkei recorded in the number 52.6 in December, but fell into the range of 52.4 in January of this preliminary measurement. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50 signal a contraction.
USD / JPY showed a slight increase from position to position 117.82 touched 117.59 before the report Japan's manufacturing index was released.
The operational conditions of factories in Japan to show its best performance since March 2014 in October and November respectively 52.4 and 52.6 in the numbers thus raising hopes of stronger external demand could lead to a better economic performance in the final quarter of 2015.
Japanese manufacturing sector has taken advantage of the rapid weakening of the yen in recent years and make domestic production more competitive and more profitable.
Yen Rises Again As Safe Haven Hunting
However, these conditions also contains a fairly high risk because in the middle of the fall in commodity and oil prices, investors will be abuzz seek safe-haven assets including the yen. The Japanese currency will be strengthened and it is this which squeezes export companies in the Rising Sun Country.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) also stated that it will tighten oversight of the oil price in relation to the inflation target of 2 percent set. The strengthening of the yen and the fall in oil prices will be the subject of their monetary policy meeting on 28 January.
Markit Manufacturing PMI index for the Japanese Nikkei recorded in the number 52.6 in December, but fell into the range of 52.4 in January of this preliminary measurement. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50 signal a contraction.
USD / JPY showed a slight increase from position to position 117.82 touched 117.59 before the report Japan's manufacturing index was released.
The operational conditions of factories in Japan to show its best performance since March 2014 in October and November respectively 52.4 and 52.6 in the numbers thus raising hopes of stronger external demand could lead to a better economic performance in the final quarter of 2015.
Japanese manufacturing sector has taken advantage of the rapid weakening of the yen in recent years and make domestic production more competitive and more profitable.
Yen Rises Again As Safe Haven Hunting
However, these conditions also contains a fairly high risk because in the middle of the fall in commodity and oil prices, investors will be abuzz seek safe-haven assets including the yen. The Japanese currency will be strengthened and it is this which squeezes export companies in the Rising Sun Country.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) also stated that it will tighten oversight of the oil price in relation to the inflation target of 2 percent set. The strengthening of the yen and the fall in oil prices will be the subject of their monetary policy meeting on 28 January.
Monday, January 18, 2016
Relief rally for Antipodeans in Asia, China stocks waver
Risk-aversion persisted in the Asian session, although a profit-taking wave hit the currency markets, with the Antipodeans rebounding from Friday’s heavy sell-off, while the USD/JPY pair also extends the recovery on 117 handle.
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USD / CAD rally, Canada Predicted to Cut Interest rate January 20
USD / CAD is still danced at high levels amid rising concerns over oil prices that in fact the main source of export revenue Canada. However, analysts predict the loonie's rally will last much longer, in line with expectations that the Bank of Canada will cut rates at its meeting on January 20.
USD / CAD had retreated to the range 1.4190an on US session yesterday, but rose again to reach 1.4290an the Asian session this morning (13/1). The Canadian dollar is still in a strong sell pressure with respect to impairment where WTI crude oil prices fell to below the level of 30 dollars for the first time in 12 years. On the other hand, investors remain worried about China's stock market crisis and the devaluation of the Renminbi. Chinese trade balance data reported better than expected this morning, but the central bank again lowered the benchmark rate. As a result, the positive trade balance data by commodity markets have not responded to the news lifted.
While uncertainty over Beijing's currency policy is still of concern to the market, David Doyle seed analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. predicting the Canadian dollar exchange rate which currently stands at around 70 cents US dollar would fall to 59 cents US Dollars in 2016, along with the worsening oil prices.
Doyle, who is a forecaster USD / CAD's best last year according to Bloomberg version also predicts the Canadian central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to 0:25 per cent on January 20. Furthermore, despite the measures taken, he said, the weakening of the manufacturing sector and the increasingly intense competition in the US market which became its main trading partners will complicate the Canadian economy to move forward.
USD / CAD had retreated to the range 1.4190an on US session yesterday, but rose again to reach 1.4290an the Asian session this morning (13/1). The Canadian dollar is still in a strong sell pressure with respect to impairment where WTI crude oil prices fell to below the level of 30 dollars for the first time in 12 years. On the other hand, investors remain worried about China's stock market crisis and the devaluation of the Renminbi. Chinese trade balance data reported better than expected this morning, but the central bank again lowered the benchmark rate. As a result, the positive trade balance data by commodity markets have not responded to the news lifted.
While uncertainty over Beijing's currency policy is still of concern to the market, David Doyle seed analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. predicting the Canadian dollar exchange rate which currently stands at around 70 cents US dollar would fall to 59 cents US Dollars in 2016, along with the worsening oil prices.
Doyle, who is a forecaster USD / CAD's best last year according to Bloomberg version also predicts the Canadian central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to 0:25 per cent on January 20. Furthermore, despite the measures taken, he said, the weakening of the manufacturing sector and the increasingly intense competition in the US market which became its main trading partners will complicate the Canadian economy to move forward.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Fed official: Rate May Not Rise Four Times In 2016
Although the 'dot plot' on December FOMC meeting indicated Fed rate hikes four times again in 2016, but the view of the high officials of the Federal Reserve is still diverse. Comments from the new Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, shows the lack of kompakan.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade in December, ending a period of super-low interest rate policy that were previously carried out in response to the financial crisis of 2007/2009. Investors are now focusing on when the next rate hike is done, with many economists predicting that steps will be taken by the Fed in March. Essentially the median forecast in December FOMC indicating there will be four Fed rate hikes in 2016.
However, Robert Kaplan and Dennis Lockhart different opinions about whether there is enough data to support a rate hike in March it.
Concerns over an economic slowdown in China in August 2015 has forced the Fed to postpone interest rate hikes from September to December. Earlier this year, the global financial market was again shaken by ambrolnya Chinese stock market, the decline Yuan, and the massive intervention of the Chinese authorities. Considering this, Kaplan that since September replaces Richard W. Fisher as president of the Dallas Fed, assessing the economic conditions need to be evaluated again.
He said, "We are experiencing it (sort of) in August and September, we wait, we monitor, we let events occur (without raising interest rates), which (it) is the right way to handle it, and we finally see that the basic economic conditions remains intact and smooth ... There is no substitute for 'time' in assessing economic data revealed. "
Furthermore, Kaplan was not sure there would be enough economic data before the next Fed policy meeting late this January to justify a rate hike at the time, but "between now and March, I think there will be (the data that support)."
Kaplan opinion is somewhat different from the views of the Atlanta Fed President delivered on different occasions. According to Lockhart, until March could so there would not be enough data to support a rate hike.
Lockhart is a member of the FOMC in 2015, but both he and Kaplan, both of them are not included in the FOMC voting members of the FOMC Policy 2016. The voting members rotate every year to make the shift members dovish and hawkish. 2015 dovish FOMC members, one of whom Lockhart, was replaced by a new line that tends hawkish, such as St. Louis Fed president James Bullard and Kansas City Fed President Esther George.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade in December, ending a period of super-low interest rate policy that were previously carried out in response to the financial crisis of 2007/2009. Investors are now focusing on when the next rate hike is done, with many economists predicting that steps will be taken by the Fed in March. Essentially the median forecast in December FOMC indicating there will be four Fed rate hikes in 2016.
However, Robert Kaplan and Dennis Lockhart different opinions about whether there is enough data to support a rate hike in March it.
Concerns over an economic slowdown in China in August 2015 has forced the Fed to postpone interest rate hikes from September to December. Earlier this year, the global financial market was again shaken by ambrolnya Chinese stock market, the decline Yuan, and the massive intervention of the Chinese authorities. Considering this, Kaplan that since September replaces Richard W. Fisher as president of the Dallas Fed, assessing the economic conditions need to be evaluated again.
He said, "We are experiencing it (sort of) in August and September, we wait, we monitor, we let events occur (without raising interest rates), which (it) is the right way to handle it, and we finally see that the basic economic conditions remains intact and smooth ... There is no substitute for 'time' in assessing economic data revealed. "
Furthermore, Kaplan was not sure there would be enough economic data before the next Fed policy meeting late this January to justify a rate hike at the time, but "between now and March, I think there will be (the data that support)."
Kaplan opinion is somewhat different from the views of the Atlanta Fed President delivered on different occasions. According to Lockhart, until March could so there would not be enough data to support a rate hike.
Lockhart is a member of the FOMC in 2015, but both he and Kaplan, both of them are not included in the FOMC voting members of the FOMC Policy 2016. The voting members rotate every year to make the shift members dovish and hawkish. 2015 dovish FOMC members, one of whom Lockhart, was replaced by a new line that tends hawkish, such as St. Louis Fed president James Bullard and Kansas City Fed President Esther George.
Monday, January 11, 2016
AUD / USD Bounce After sinks to bottom 70 cent
In mid-Asian session this morning (11/1), AUD / USD bounces after slumping to a four-month lows last week. However, the pair still bearish sentiment tinged with respect to concerns about the Asian markets and commodity prices.
AUD / USD closed dipped to 0.6951 on Friday, its lowest level since September 2015, following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, Wall Street and in Australia. ASX200 index fell 2 percent, the lowest since July 2013 in a series of events in a bad week for the stock market of the world. However, the pair has now returned.
Currently, the pair AUD / USD was trading around 0.3 percent higher than the previous low level, approaching the 0.6980 range.
However, in the middle of a quiet weekend fundamental release, sentiment towards the Aussie damped by the rise of concerns over China's economic slowdown which has triggered a new selloff in the equity markets and commodities. In the coming days, developments in China and commodity markets will be observed by market participants prior to the release of Australian employment data on Thursday.
Could Decline Further
HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham said on ABC Australian media that the Australian dollar could fall further in 2016 due to the weakness of the country's main export commodity. Moreover, the condition of China and rising US interest rates will continue to shake the financial markets this year.
According to Bloxham, "The Australian dollar (today) is located at a level higher than what is implied from the relationship with commodity prices, commodity price levels now imply that the Australian dollar at 60-65 US cents (USD0.60-0.65) could be more ideal. If the Australian dollar does not degenerate further, then this could make the RBA disappointed and forced them to cut (rates) again. "
AUD / USD closed dipped to 0.6951 on Friday, its lowest level since September 2015, following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, Wall Street and in Australia. ASX200 index fell 2 percent, the lowest since July 2013 in a series of events in a bad week for the stock market of the world. However, the pair has now returned.
Currently, the pair AUD / USD was trading around 0.3 percent higher than the previous low level, approaching the 0.6980 range.
However, in the middle of a quiet weekend fundamental release, sentiment towards the Aussie damped by the rise of concerns over China's economic slowdown which has triggered a new selloff in the equity markets and commodities. In the coming days, developments in China and commodity markets will be observed by market participants prior to the release of Australian employment data on Thursday.
Could Decline Further
HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham said on ABC Australian media that the Australian dollar could fall further in 2016 due to the weakness of the country's main export commodity. Moreover, the condition of China and rising US interest rates will continue to shake the financial markets this year.
According to Bloxham, "The Australian dollar (today) is located at a level higher than what is implied from the relationship with commodity prices, commodity price levels now imply that the Australian dollar at 60-65 US cents (USD0.60-0.65) could be more ideal. If the Australian dollar does not degenerate further, then this could make the RBA disappointed and forced them to cut (rates) again. "
EUR / JPY January 11, 2016: Still Indications Correction Price
Last Friday pairs EUR / JPY down 50 pips from the opening price of 128.60 and closed at 128.10. Body candle still be inside fibonacci measured on Jan. 5 yesterday, Fibonacci can still use to this day. While the indicator moving average still shows a trend down with the red moving average (MA 4) and blue (MA 13) which is under the green moving average (MA 50). While stochastic oscillator tried to move out leaving the oversold area.
Friday, January 8, 2016
AUD / USD Australia Panning Increase Despite Sluggish Retail
Australian retail sales growing in a moderate pace in November. This suggests that consumers are still reluctant to shop in the middle of Australia's precarious economic situation. Demand from consumers are still reeling because of the growth of public revenue continues to fade.
Australian retail sales grew 0.4 percent on-month basis in November, while sales growth in October was revised up from 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Friday (08/01) morning.
Retail household goods rose 0.9 percent in November, while service restaurant jumped up to 1 percent, and retail food edged up 0.2 percent. While retail clothing such as clothing, footwear and accessories rose 0.8 percent, followed by other retail sales by 0.4 percent increase. There is also a 0.8 percent decline in sales at department stores.
Responding to this report, the Australian dollar was trading higher then 0.25 per cent against the US Dollar at 0.7028 figure this morning in Sydney. Previously, AUD / USD is at 0.7012 level at the close of New York trading session last night.
Australian society not Want Boros
The decline of activity in the retail sekstor tergoncangnya in Australia are a reflection of consumer confidence in Australia's economic transition of mining investment sector. Decline in economic activity after mining investment boom significantly reducing income growth and the impact on consumer shopping habits.
In addition, the weakening of the labor market in recent years diminish consumer confidence and triggered a cautious attitude towards waste. The impact, of course the weakening inflation. RBA is likely to cut interest rates back this year if consumer inflation (CPI) Australia continues to be low.
Australian retail sales grew 0.4 percent on-month basis in November, while sales growth in October was revised up from 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Friday (08/01) morning.
Retail household goods rose 0.9 percent in November, while service restaurant jumped up to 1 percent, and retail food edged up 0.2 percent. While retail clothing such as clothing, footwear and accessories rose 0.8 percent, followed by other retail sales by 0.4 percent increase. There is also a 0.8 percent decline in sales at department stores.
Responding to this report, the Australian dollar was trading higher then 0.25 per cent against the US Dollar at 0.7028 figure this morning in Sydney. Previously, AUD / USD is at 0.7012 level at the close of New York trading session last night.
Australian society not Want Boros
The decline of activity in the retail sekstor tergoncangnya in Australia are a reflection of consumer confidence in Australia's economic transition of mining investment sector. Decline in economic activity after mining investment boom significantly reducing income growth and the impact on consumer shopping habits.
In addition, the weakening of the labor market in recent years diminish consumer confidence and triggered a cautious attitude towards waste. The impact, of course the weakening inflation. RBA is likely to cut interest rates back this year if consumer inflation (CPI) Australia continues to be low.
Thursday, January 7, 2016
Gold analysis January 7: Advanced Corrective Bullish On 1093 range
Gold continued strengthening of the correction and appears to be resistant test range in 1098 (FIBO 38.2) after getting reinforcement of more than USD7 of the trading day yesterday.
The fundamental issue that is being strengthened today is the tension in the Middle East, speculation continued rise in US interest rates and the volatility of global stock markets, especially in China, including the success of the hydrogen bomb test by North Korea.
Technical Analysis
At the H4 chart below can be one of the possible Elliott Wave count that can help you take trading decisions today.
The fundamental issue that is being strengthened today is the tension in the Middle East, speculation continued rise in US interest rates and the volatility of global stock markets, especially in China, including the success of the hydrogen bomb test by North Korea.
Technical Analysis
At the H4 chart below can be one of the possible Elliott Wave count that can help you take trading decisions today.
Tuesday, January 5, 2016
Australian Dollar Steady After Yesterday Free Fall
Australian dollar helped by stable Chinese equities and rising consumer sentiment amid an economic recovery that is still half-hearted, after touching a two-week low on Tuesday early this morning.
AUD / USD traded in the range of 0.7211 on Tuesday (05/01) morning, lower than the position of 0.7221 in the same time on Monday. The Australian currency had slipped by nearly 2 percent to 0.7155 figure, in the trading session last night before recovering slightly to 0.7188 levels.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar was higher in the trading session last night even though data on US manufacturing PMI recorded a contraction. US Manufacturing PMI is in Area 48.6, below expectations of 49.1 basis points in November. Sectors which support approximately nine percent of the workforce across the land of Uncle Sam is still much hampered by the strengthening US dollar. Especially for the manufacturing industry with export orientation.
Weak Chinese PMI Manufacturing yesterday Caixin is a major trigger for the decline of the Australian dollar in view of China is the main export destination for Australia. Lapran showed that Chinese manufacturing activity still contracted in the 10 consecutive month in December. China Caixin Manufacturing index for December fell to 48.2, slightly below forecasts at level 49 and less than 48.6 in the previous month.
Investors Start Back To Dollar
According to Stuart McPhee, Oanda analysts interviewed by the Sydney Morning Herald, it saw the Aussie under pressure as investors returned to the US dollar due to concerns about the Chinese economy and by the year 2016 begins. However, McPhee said that the 0.72 area is a support level for the AUD / USD. That level is still significantly in recent months and still play a role.
AUD / USD traded in the range of 0.7211 on Tuesday (05/01) morning, lower than the position of 0.7221 in the same time on Monday. The Australian currency had slipped by nearly 2 percent to 0.7155 figure, in the trading session last night before recovering slightly to 0.7188 levels.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar was higher in the trading session last night even though data on US manufacturing PMI recorded a contraction. US Manufacturing PMI is in Area 48.6, below expectations of 49.1 basis points in November. Sectors which support approximately nine percent of the workforce across the land of Uncle Sam is still much hampered by the strengthening US dollar. Especially for the manufacturing industry with export orientation.
Weak Chinese PMI Manufacturing yesterday Caixin is a major trigger for the decline of the Australian dollar in view of China is the main export destination for Australia. Lapran showed that Chinese manufacturing activity still contracted in the 10 consecutive month in December. China Caixin Manufacturing index for December fell to 48.2, slightly below forecasts at level 49 and less than 48.6 in the previous month.
Investors Start Back To Dollar
According to Stuart McPhee, Oanda analysts interviewed by the Sydney Morning Herald, it saw the Aussie under pressure as investors returned to the US dollar due to concerns about the Chinese economy and by the year 2016 begins. However, McPhee said that the 0.72 area is a support level for the AUD / USD. That level is still significantly in recent months and still play a role.
EUR / JPY January 5, 2016: Pressure Downtrend Still Strong
EUR / JPY on Monday was closed with the fall in pairs as much as 124 pips from the opening price of 130.61 and closed at 129.37. The direction the market is able to penetrate the Fibonacci retracement level 100 measured on Thursday, December 3rd which
then the new Fibonacci can be measured on the basis of candle yesterday. Moving averages still indicated to drop seen in the red moving average (MA 4) and blue (MA 13), which has cut green moving average (MA 50) from top to bottom. While the stochastic indicator is still seen to be on the oversold area.
then the new Fibonacci can be measured on the basis of candle yesterday. Moving averages still indicated to drop seen in the red moving average (MA 4) and blue (MA 13), which has cut green moving average (MA 50) from top to bottom. While the stochastic indicator is still seen to be on the oversold area.
Monday, January 4, 2016
AUDUSD Free Fall After China Manufacturing PMI and Arab-Iranian polemic
premiered at the Asian trading session on Monday (04/01) in 2016 begins with the Australian dollar free fall by nearly one per cent in line with jebloknya manufacturing sector in major export destinations of Australia, China, as well as the tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran that catch fire in diplomatic relations between the two The Middle Eastern countries.
aud_usd
AUD / USD was trading at 0.7222 fell to 0.93 percent from its previous position at 0.7296 in just 15 minutes.
China Caixin Manufacturing Index
China Caixin Manufacturing index for December fell to 48.2, slightly below forecasts at level 49 and less than the previous 48.6. Meanwhile, Australia's self-reported data on the position of AIG Manufacturing Index 51.9, although still in the expansion category, down from a previous 52.5.
Governor of the Central Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens, indirectly seemed quite happy with the weakening Aussie dollar so far in 2016. Stevens continued to launch "jawboning" about the weakening Australian dollar. In August last year, RBA Governor replace observations statement about the Australian dollar which usually reads "further depreciation is necessary" to "The Australian dollar was adjusted to significantly decline in commodity prices."
Arab-Iranian polemic
The fall of the AUD / USD to a certain extent affected by the upheaval in oil prices, after the announcement of the termination of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran appeared in Twitter tweets in Arabic by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia.
"With this, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Adel Al-Jubeir, announced to cut diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran." thus the chirp sounds. This termination step occurs after the raid on the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Tehran last weekend, following the execution of the Shia cleric leading Arab Iran.
aud_usd
AUD / USD was trading at 0.7222 fell to 0.93 percent from its previous position at 0.7296 in just 15 minutes.
China Caixin Manufacturing Index
China Caixin Manufacturing index for December fell to 48.2, slightly below forecasts at level 49 and less than the previous 48.6. Meanwhile, Australia's self-reported data on the position of AIG Manufacturing Index 51.9, although still in the expansion category, down from a previous 52.5.
Governor of the Central Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens, indirectly seemed quite happy with the weakening Aussie dollar so far in 2016. Stevens continued to launch "jawboning" about the weakening Australian dollar. In August last year, RBA Governor replace observations statement about the Australian dollar which usually reads "further depreciation is necessary" to "The Australian dollar was adjusted to significantly decline in commodity prices."
Arab-Iranian polemic
The fall of the AUD / USD to a certain extent affected by the upheaval in oil prices, after the announcement of the termination of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran appeared in Twitter tweets in Arabic by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia.
"With this, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Adel Al-Jubeir, announced to cut diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran." thus the chirp sounds. This termination step occurs after the raid on the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Tehran last weekend, following the execution of the Shia cleric leading Arab Iran.
Gold Rises As The increased tension in the Middle East
At the opening of Asian markets today (4/1), the price of gold gained as investors' view of the increase in geopolitical tension after Saudi Arabia against Iran broke off diplomatic relations.
Spot gold rose 12:29 percent to the US dollar 1,064.40 per troy ounce. Similarly, delivery next month gold on the Comex stronger then 0.25 per cent to USD 1,062.90 per troy ounce. Precious metals prices rose after the announcement of the rope rupture of diplomatic relations Saudi Arabia against Iran posed via Twitter Saudi Foreign Ministry official, "Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir of the Saudi Kingdom announced a severance of diplomatic relations on Iran."
The influence of the political tensions caused bullion rallied due to the action of shifting investment towards the save-haven assets and the exclusion of the strengthening US dollar against six other major currencies. The US Dollar Index is still at the high level of 98.62, only slightly dimmed 0:07 percent at the opening of the market on the first day of the new year.
Many people predict gold will be a difficult year in 2016. After an increase in interest rates for the first time in December last year, the Fed is expected to undertake a gradual increase in the Federal Funds Rate during the year. Higher interest rates will weigh on demand non-interest assets such as gold, while on the other hand give support to the US dollar.
Spot gold rose 12:29 percent to the US dollar 1,064.40 per troy ounce. Similarly, delivery next month gold on the Comex stronger then 0.25 per cent to USD 1,062.90 per troy ounce. Precious metals prices rose after the announcement of the rope rupture of diplomatic relations Saudi Arabia against Iran posed via Twitter Saudi Foreign Ministry official, "Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir of the Saudi Kingdom announced a severance of diplomatic relations on Iran."
The influence of the political tensions caused bullion rallied due to the action of shifting investment towards the save-haven assets and the exclusion of the strengthening US dollar against six other major currencies. The US Dollar Index is still at the high level of 98.62, only slightly dimmed 0:07 percent at the opening of the market on the first day of the new year.
Many people predict gold will be a difficult year in 2016. After an increase in interest rates for the first time in December last year, the Fed is expected to undertake a gradual increase in the Federal Funds Rate during the year. Higher interest rates will weigh on demand non-interest assets such as gold, while on the other hand give support to the US dollar.
Tensions Arabia And Iran Lifts Oil Prices
Rising tensions in the Middle East increased oil prices earlier this year. Saudi Arabia reportedly broke off diplomatic relations with Iran after the assault in the Saudi embassy.
Today (4/1), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia announced that, "Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir (from) the Kingdom of Saudi announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran". The decision was announced following arson and assault in the Office of the Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Tehran.
Disputes between the two nations heats up after Saudi executions in Nimr al-Nimr a result Shia cleric accused of terrorism. Although direct impact on oil supply is very limited, but the tension between the two countries is estimated to increase sectarian problem in Islam.
Oil futures contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) opened higher 1:52 percent to the US dollar 37.80 per barrel, while Brent following the increase of 1.6 per cent to USD 38.28 per barrel. Last week, oil prices rose slightly ahead of year-end holidays, but ended the year 2015 with a sharp decline due to the increasing global oil supplies.
Today (4/1), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia announced that, "Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir (from) the Kingdom of Saudi announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran". The decision was announced following arson and assault in the Office of the Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Tehran.
Disputes between the two nations heats up after Saudi executions in Nimr al-Nimr a result Shia cleric accused of terrorism. Although direct impact on oil supply is very limited, but the tension between the two countries is estimated to increase sectarian problem in Islam.
Oil futures contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) opened higher 1:52 percent to the US dollar 37.80 per barrel, while Brent following the increase of 1.6 per cent to USD 38.28 per barrel. Last week, oil prices rose slightly ahead of year-end holidays, but ended the year 2015 with a sharp decline due to the increasing global oil supplies.
Technical Analysis 4-9 January 2016
EUR/USD:
Daily chart: likely bearish:
1. The price curve penetrates the middle band indicator Bollinger Bands with a long bearish bars and the location of the point of Parabolic SAR indicator (Parabolic Stop And Reverse) moved to the top of the bar candlestick, indicating that bearish sentiment is quite strong.
2. Curve RSI indicator moves below the center line (level 50.0).
3. Outline histogram ADX indicator red color change that indicates dominant bearish.
Weekly pivot level: 1.0903
Resistance: 1.0925; 1.1000; 1.1042; 1.1097; 1.1133; 1.1208 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement-1); 1.1295 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level-2); 1.1383; 1.1435; 1.1533; 1.1620; 1.1753; 1.1810 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level-2); 1.1875.
Support: 1.0820; 1.0760; 1.0680; 1.0600; 1.0565; 1.0500; 1.0334; 1.0206; 1.0070 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement-1); 1.0000.
Indicators: simple moving average (SMA) 200; Parabolic SAR (0:02, 0.2); Bollinger Bands (20.2); MACD (12,26,9); OSMA; RSI (14); ADX (14)
Critical levels EUR / USD: 1.2000; 1.1875: 1.1753: 1.1700; 1.1620; 1.1540; 1.1500; 1.1460; 1.1373; 1.1313; 1.1290; 1.1200; 1.1113: 1.1050; 1.1000; 1.0910; 1.0860; 1.0760: 1.0500; 1.0208; 1.0170.
Fibonacci retracement (1):
Point swing low: 0.8225 (lowest price October 26, 2000)
Swing high point: 1.6037 (highest price July 15, 2008)
Fibonacci retracement (2):
Swing high point: 1.3992 (highs May 8, 2015)
Point swing low: 1.0461 (lowest price of March 13, 2015)
Fibonacci fan:
Swing high point: 1.3410 (highest price August 15, 2014)
Point swing low: 1.2499 (lowest price October 3, 2014)
Important fundamental data this week is the US Non-Farm Payrolls, the minutes of the FOMC meeting, the CPI Flash Estimate Eurozone, German CPI, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and US Jobless Claims.
Daily chart: likely bearish:1. The price curve penetrates the middle band indicator Bollinger Bands with a long bearish bars and the location of the point of Parabolic SAR indicator (Parabolic Stop And Reverse) moved to the top of the bar candlestick, indicating that bearish sentiment is quite strong.
2. Curve RSI indicator moves below the center line (level 50.0).
3. Outline histogram ADX indicator red color change that indicates dominant bearish.
Weekly pivot level: 1.0903
Resistance: 1.0925; 1.1000; 1.1042; 1.1097; 1.1133; 1.1208 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement-1); 1.1295 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level-2); 1.1383; 1.1435; 1.1533; 1.1620; 1.1753; 1.1810 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level-2); 1.1875.
Support: 1.0820; 1.0760; 1.0680; 1.0600; 1.0565; 1.0500; 1.0334; 1.0206; 1.0070 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement-1); 1.0000.
Indicators: simple moving average (SMA) 200; Parabolic SAR (0:02, 0.2); Bollinger Bands (20.2); MACD (12,26,9); OSMA; RSI (14); ADX (14)
Critical levels EUR / USD: 1.2000; 1.1875: 1.1753: 1.1700; 1.1620; 1.1540; 1.1500; 1.1460; 1.1373; 1.1313; 1.1290; 1.1200; 1.1113: 1.1050; 1.1000; 1.0910; 1.0860; 1.0760: 1.0500; 1.0208; 1.0170.
Fibonacci retracement (1):
Point swing low: 0.8225 (lowest price October 26, 2000)
Swing high point: 1.6037 (highest price July 15, 2008)
Fibonacci retracement (2):
Swing high point: 1.3992 (highs May 8, 2015)
Point swing low: 1.0461 (lowest price of March 13, 2015)
Fibonacci fan:
Swing high point: 1.3410 (highest price August 15, 2014)
Point swing low: 1.2499 (lowest price October 3, 2014)
Important fundamental data this week is the US Non-Farm Payrolls, the minutes of the FOMC meeting, the CPI Flash Estimate Eurozone, German CPI, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and US Jobless Claims.