New Zealand retail sales volumes for the September quarter reported increases in on Monday (16/11) morning, along with strengthening activities using motorized vehicles coupled with increased purchases of electronic equipment. These conditions boost consumer spending to meelebihi expectations.
Led Vehicle
New Zealand retail sales get seasonal acquisition of up to 1.6 percent in the three months ended September 30, accelerating from 0.1 percent expansion obtained in the period of June, thus described by the Bureau of Statistics New Zealand. Consumers in New Zealand seem less consumptive in the previous quarter in connection with the expiration of dairy boom and the rebuilding of the Canterbury region.
It is a challenge in itself for the economic expansion of New Zealand while record numbers of people who migrate to these countries accounted for the increase in the workforce. The lack of an increase in inflation also makes it less appropriate wage growth. The figure exceeded the forecast 1.3 percent rise forecast by economists Reuters.
The increase in sales of motor vehicles by 5 percent and sales of electronic goods as much as 6.6 percent of the data that most contribute to sales of New Zealand currency retal third. Meanwhile, the volume of retail sales of the core (core retail sales) New Zealand rose 1 percent compared with growth of only zero in June.
"Some car dealers have told us that they are experiencing overcrowding in September and was heading for a record-breaking sales target this year," said Neil Kelly, Senior Manager Business indicators cited by Scoop.
After this report, NZD / USD is trading slightly down precisely 12:15 percent with a tendency to flat at 0.6529 position.
Monday, November 16, 2015
Euro After Tragedy Paris 13 November
euro touched the lowest level in six and a half months against the yen and near a six and a half month low against the US dollar also in the Asian session on Monday (16/11) morning after the horrendous attack that took place in Paris on Friday (13/11) ago. Although not too siginifkan, it appears that there is pressure suffered by the euro.
EUR / USD faded 0.5 percent to 1.0710 figure, pull over to the low level last week reached 1.0674. The pair has retreated about 7 percent from its peak on 15 October at the 1.1495 figure.
Before the onset of the attack, the Euro was under pressure amid eskpektasi expansion of monetary easing by the Bank of Japan's (ECB) is expected to be implemented in the last month, so it may be able to cut interest rates to a level more negative.
EUR / JPY Most Significant
Against the yen, the euro also seemed helpless in the lower level 130 645, the lowest level of the cross pair since late April. EUR / JPY last occupied the number 131.38 Yen, declined 0.5 percent from the level achieved in the New York session at the weekend. A large number of forex trading seems to shrink in perdaganagn New York session as the attack that took place in Paris on Friday night.
Shunsuke Yamada, a forex strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Tokyo, told Reuters that the terror attacks that hit Paris evokes negative sentimena in Europe. For now, it is unclear what its impact on consumption and the economy, but clearly, the people of Europe, especially France, would be more careful when out of the house or even afraid to leave the house. Pair EUR / JPY forex pair according to Yamada is that feel the negative implications of this tragedy.
EUR / USD faded 0.5 percent to 1.0710 figure, pull over to the low level last week reached 1.0674. The pair has retreated about 7 percent from its peak on 15 October at the 1.1495 figure.
Before the onset of the attack, the Euro was under pressure amid eskpektasi expansion of monetary easing by the Bank of Japan's (ECB) is expected to be implemented in the last month, so it may be able to cut interest rates to a level more negative.
EUR / JPY Most Significant
Against the yen, the euro also seemed helpless in the lower level 130 645, the lowest level of the cross pair since late April. EUR / JPY last occupied the number 131.38 Yen, declined 0.5 percent from the level achieved in the New York session at the weekend. A large number of forex trading seems to shrink in perdaganagn New York session as the attack that took place in Paris on Friday night.
Shunsuke Yamada, a forex strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Tokyo, told Reuters that the terror attacks that hit Paris evokes negative sentimena in Europe. For now, it is unclear what its impact on consumption and the economy, but clearly, the people of Europe, especially France, would be more careful when out of the house or even afraid to leave the house. Pair EUR / JPY forex pair according to Yamada is that feel the negative implications of this tragedy.
Sunday, November 15, 2015
EURUSD: predictions for November 16 to 22
EUR / USD is under bearish pressure, but found some support just below 1.0700 as risk sentiment investors are not very bright, and the demand for euro lower results improved compared to the demand for US dollars.
The European Central Bank is ready to ease policy in the near future. ECB head Mario Draghi stated that the strong euro accounted for euro area inflation outlook weak. Next week Mr. Draghi will speak 2 times - on Mondays and Fridays. As head of the dovish regulator so far, we think that he will continue to stick in this line, so that speeches are bearish risk for the euro. German economic growth has slowed slightly in Q3. The same thing happened with the euro area economy. The news is quite negative.
Apart from Mr. Draghi's speech next week watch the euro area inflation in late October on Monday and Monday ZEW economic sentiment for Germany and the euro area on Tuesday. Data from the US would be also important for the couple.
Large speculators significantly increase net short positions on the euro in recent weeks, the market has become more bearish, and the risk of closing short positions suddenly now higher. However, the level of 1.0900 / 50 - the support line 2015 - is a strong resistance to the single currency, and which never reached will trigger a new wave of selling. Support is located at 1.0700, 1.0660, 1.0600 and 1.0520. As, for the moment, we have probably seen most of the decline of this couple in the monetary difference between the US and the euro area, the rate of decline is likely to slow and the EUR / USD has several reasons to stabilize and consolidate a little.
The European Central Bank is ready to ease policy in the near future. ECB head Mario Draghi stated that the strong euro accounted for euro area inflation outlook weak. Next week Mr. Draghi will speak 2 times - on Mondays and Fridays. As head of the dovish regulator so far, we think that he will continue to stick in this line, so that speeches are bearish risk for the euro. German economic growth has slowed slightly in Q3. The same thing happened with the euro area economy. The news is quite negative.
Apart from Mr. Draghi's speech next week watch the euro area inflation in late October on Monday and Monday ZEW economic sentiment for Germany and the euro area on Tuesday. Data from the US would be also important for the couple.
Large speculators significantly increase net short positions on the euro in recent weeks, the market has become more bearish, and the risk of closing short positions suddenly now higher. However, the level of 1.0900 / 50 - the support line 2015 - is a strong resistance to the single currency, and which never reached will trigger a new wave of selling. Support is located at 1.0700, 1.0660, 1.0600 and 1.0520. As, for the moment, we have probably seen most of the decline of this couple in the monetary difference between the US and the euro area, the rate of decline is likely to slow and the EUR / USD has several reasons to stabilize and consolidate a little.
GBPUSD: predictions for November 16 to 22
The British currency is still very young to change: GBP / USD has regained 50% Fibonacci of the increase in early November. Buyer faces a resistance at 1.5250 level. You can see the symmetrical triangle on H4 chart.
We see two ways to trade the new cable in the week. According to the first scenario, the pair will continue to fall. In this case, we recommend selling of 1.5170 with a medium-term target at 1.50. The second scenario is bullish: this pair could extend the rest of the top and pushed to a level of 1.5300 and 1.5380. Given the potential for a bullish USD, we tend to first, the bearish scenario.
Next week on Tuesday, we will pay attention to the UK and US inflation data. Make sure you do not miss a UK retail sales on Thursday.
We see two ways to trade the new cable in the week. According to the first scenario, the pair will continue to fall. In this case, we recommend selling of 1.5170 with a medium-term target at 1.50. The second scenario is bullish: this pair could extend the rest of the top and pushed to a level of 1.5300 and 1.5380. Given the potential for a bullish USD, we tend to first, the bearish scenario.
Next week on Tuesday, we will pay attention to the UK and US inflation data. Make sure you do not miss a UK retail sales on Thursday.
Friday, November 13, 2015
Fed officials slightly Talk About Interest Rates, Dollar Damped
US dollar currency cut-placement against major currencies in the trading session (12/11), but remained near seven-month highs after US Federal Reserve chairman, Janet Yellen, did not comment on future US monetary policy. EUR / USD climbed 0:14 percent to 1.0758 while USD / JPY appears to be stable to the 122.97 figure. GBP / USD position 1.5204, while USD / CHF fading 0:23 percent to numbers.
Various comments FOMC Officials
Fed officials busy to comment on various economic arena, including the Economic Club of New York, which was held last night with mixed sentiments.
The most highlighted is the number one speech of the Fed, Janet Yellen, who unfortunately, did not give any hints about the timing of the rise in US interest rates. Delivering a speech in the event titled Implementation Conference on Post-Crisis Monetary Policy in Washington DC, Yellen just focus on speech without giving any specific comments about the condition of the economy and plans for interest rates.
However, in contrast to the Chairman, the President of the Federal Reserve to the area of New York, William Dudley, just slightly opened by saying that it is possible for the US central bank to raise interest rates in the near future, though declined to say when would be liftoff will be executed.
"I can not tell you exactly how my policy in the future, because the future is still uncertain," said Dudley told reporters before the conference begins. Decides monetary policy, continued Dudley, is a difficult thing, especially when the economy is growing amid subdued inflation. Nevertheless, he was still convinced that an interest rate hike in the near future will give a satisfactory result.
In addition to the two officials, there are also statements from FOMC members and President of the Fed to the Chicago area, Bill Evans, and a statement from the Fed's Vice Chairman Charles Fischer. However, all of which suggests that the Fed still has not decided a definite step seen from different views that they show.
Various comments FOMC Officials
Fed officials busy to comment on various economic arena, including the Economic Club of New York, which was held last night with mixed sentiments.
The most highlighted is the number one speech of the Fed, Janet Yellen, who unfortunately, did not give any hints about the timing of the rise in US interest rates. Delivering a speech in the event titled Implementation Conference on Post-Crisis Monetary Policy in Washington DC, Yellen just focus on speech without giving any specific comments about the condition of the economy and plans for interest rates.
However, in contrast to the Chairman, the President of the Federal Reserve to the area of New York, William Dudley, just slightly opened by saying that it is possible for the US central bank to raise interest rates in the near future, though declined to say when would be liftoff will be executed.
"I can not tell you exactly how my policy in the future, because the future is still uncertain," said Dudley told reporters before the conference begins. Decides monetary policy, continued Dudley, is a difficult thing, especially when the economy is growing amid subdued inflation. Nevertheless, he was still convinced that an interest rate hike in the near future will give a satisfactory result.
In addition to the two officials, there are also statements from FOMC members and President of the Fed to the Chicago area, Bill Evans, and a statement from the Fed's Vice Chairman Charles Fischer. However, all of which suggests that the Fed still has not decided a definite step seen from different views that they show.
Japanese Economics Minister Not Intend to Add Stimulus, USD / JPY Slightly Ramps
Yen slightly depress the strengthening US Dollar on Friday (13/11) this morning as investors were digesting the comments expressed by the US Fed officials about the prospect of higher US interest rates next month.
USD / JPY slightly sloping 0:04 percent to 122.53. Last night, the US Dollar against the currencies of placement cut-major currencies, though still not far from the high level, after the chairman of the Fed, Janet Yellen, chose not to comment on central bank monetary policy ahead. In his acceptance speech at the Fed conference Thursday night, Yellen declined to make a speech about the short-term outlook of the FOMC.
Japanese Economics Minister Extras Allocates Funds To TPP
On the other hand, Japan's industrial production report recorded gains 1.0 percent gain month-to-month in September.
Meanwhile, the Minister of Economy of Japan, Akira Amari, said that he does not feel the need to reconstitute the extra budget to stimulate growth, although no doubt there is the possibility of Japanese economic data which will be announced next week showed technical recession.
Amari statement quoted by Reuters also reveal that the Japanese government will be allocating additional budget to fund the policies relating to trade pact Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), and all things related to the decline in Japan's population
USD / JPY slightly sloping 0:04 percent to 122.53. Last night, the US Dollar against the currencies of placement cut-major currencies, though still not far from the high level, after the chairman of the Fed, Janet Yellen, chose not to comment on central bank monetary policy ahead. In his acceptance speech at the Fed conference Thursday night, Yellen declined to make a speech about the short-term outlook of the FOMC.
Japanese Economics Minister Extras Allocates Funds To TPP
On the other hand, Japan's industrial production report recorded gains 1.0 percent gain month-to-month in September.
Meanwhile, the Minister of Economy of Japan, Akira Amari, said that he does not feel the need to reconstitute the extra budget to stimulate growth, although no doubt there is the possibility of Japanese economic data which will be announced next week showed technical recession.
Amari statement quoted by Reuters also reveal that the Japanese government will be allocating additional budget to fund the policies relating to trade pact Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), and all things related to the decline in Japan's population
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Australia Employment October: Figures Astoundingly Everywhere
Australia released employment figures are astounding for the month of October, the ABS reported increased employment changes by 58.6 thousand jobs (seasonally adjusted).
Full-time work came in 40 thousand versus the previous -10.4 thousand, while part-time saw a leap of 18.6 thousand. Australia's unemployment rate ticked down to 5.9% vs 6.2% expected and previous 6.2%, with a participation rate of 65% vs. 64.9% expected and prior 64.9%.
Key figures in October
TRENDS FORECAST (CHANGE IN MONTHLY)
Employment increased to 11.8154 million.
Unemployment declined to to 764 900.
The unemployment rate held steady at 6.1%.
The participation rate remained stable at 65.0%.
Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 5.7 million hours to 1647.1 million hours.
ESTIMATED ADJUSTED SEASON (CHANGES MONTHLY)
Employment increased 58,600 into 11.8382 million. Full-time employment increased by 40,000 to 8.1716 million and part-time jobs increased by 18,600 into 3.6666 million.
Unemployment decreased 33.4 thousand to 739.5 thousand. The number of people unemployed who are looking for full-time employment fell 30,300 to 526 300 and the number of unemployed people who are only looking for part-time jobs decreased 3,100 to 213 200.
The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 points to 5.9%.
The participation rate increased by 0.1 points to 65.0%.
Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 19.1 million hours (1.2%) to 1660.4 million hours.
Full-time work came in 40 thousand versus the previous -10.4 thousand, while part-time saw a leap of 18.6 thousand. Australia's unemployment rate ticked down to 5.9% vs 6.2% expected and previous 6.2%, with a participation rate of 65% vs. 64.9% expected and prior 64.9%.
Key figures in October
TRENDS FORECAST (CHANGE IN MONTHLY)
Employment increased to 11.8154 million.
Unemployment declined to to 764 900.
The unemployment rate held steady at 6.1%.
The participation rate remained stable at 65.0%.
Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 5.7 million hours to 1647.1 million hours.
ESTIMATED ADJUSTED SEASON (CHANGES MONTHLY)
Employment increased 58,600 into 11.8382 million. Full-time employment increased by 40,000 to 8.1716 million and part-time jobs increased by 18,600 into 3.6666 million.
Unemployment decreased 33.4 thousand to 739.5 thousand. The number of people unemployed who are looking for full-time employment fell 30,300 to 526 300 and the number of unemployed people who are only looking for part-time jobs decreased 3,100 to 213 200.
The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 points to 5.9%.
The participation rate increased by 0.1 points to 65.0%.
Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 19.1 million hours (1.2%) to 1660.4 million hours.
AUD / USD: Skyrocketing
AUD / USD is currently at the mid-point targets the purchasing bid so far 0.71 at time of writing.
AUD / USD rose after major figures in Australian jobs data and has postponed the power down for a while, freeing bull back to 0.71. RBA will be on cloud nine because of the reluctance to cut interest rates and the subsequent data will be a dream come true for Tony Abbott jobs and growth agenda. Full-time work came in 40 thousand versus the previous -10.4 thousand, with part-time jump of 18.6 thousand. Australia's unemployment rate fell from the bracket keys suggested the RBA from 6 to 6.5% and down to 5.9% vs 6.2% expected and 6.2% prior. However, the participation rate at 65% vs. 64.9% expected and prior 64.9%.
Rate of AUD / USD
Technically, AUD / USD has rallied to the key resistance at 0.7120 and actually managed through here and reaching as high as 0.7136 in the R3 region so far. Downside pressures have eased and the bull would think about the level of Fibo retracement of 0.7298 / 0.7385 and the downtrend 2014-2015 as the main target. However, for the time being and less wide, 0.7173 should give rise to open fully.
AUD / USD rose after major figures in Australian jobs data and has postponed the power down for a while, freeing bull back to 0.71. RBA will be on cloud nine because of the reluctance to cut interest rates and the subsequent data will be a dream come true for Tony Abbott jobs and growth agenda. Full-time work came in 40 thousand versus the previous -10.4 thousand, with part-time jump of 18.6 thousand. Australia's unemployment rate fell from the bracket keys suggested the RBA from 6 to 6.5% and down to 5.9% vs 6.2% expected and 6.2% prior. However, the participation rate at 65% vs. 64.9% expected and prior 64.9%.
Rate of AUD / USD
Technically, AUD / USD has rallied to the key resistance at 0.7120 and actually managed through here and reaching as high as 0.7136 in the R3 region so far. Downside pressures have eased and the bull would think about the level of Fibo retracement of 0.7298 / 0.7385 and the downtrend 2014-2015 as the main target. However, for the time being and less wide, 0.7173 should give rise to open fully.
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Support penetration Rising Wedge Pattern, USD / CHF Open Opportunities Correction
USD / CHF has gone through its variety level, above the 1.0000 price level. The weakening of the USD / CHF is not separated from the strengthening of the USD which hit almost all other currencies versus the USD, as the impact of the stronger optimism the Fed's interest rate hike in December. In Europe alone, the weakening of the Euro as its QE program also melemehkan Swiss Franc.
Which must be observed Wednesday night this was ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in England's Open Forum 2015. His statement will also affect the movement of the Swiss franc. But technically, the weakening of the USD / CHF that has passed its variety this level, it is possible to be a correction first.
USD / CHF in Time Frame H1 identified Rising Wedge pattern formation, and the price has broken through the support. Usually technically, the condition is a reversal signal, so traders can make sell order with the target to a level of 1.0000 or its variety could be even further to 0.9972. for risk limitation can be placed a buy stop order at 1.0090 with a target nearby high rise in the price level closest to 1.0127 or could also catch up to the price level 1.0238 (the highest price level closest before the SNB cut rate).
USD / CHF in Time Frame H1 identified Rising Wedge pattern formation, and the price has broken through the support. Usually technically, the condition is a reversal signal, so traders can make sell order with the target to a level of 1.0000 or its variety could be even further to 0.9972. for risk limitation can be placed a buy stop order at 1.0090 with a target nearby high rise in the price level closest to 1.0127 or could also catch up to the price level 1.0238 (the highest price level closest before the SNB cut rate).
GBP / USD Selling Above 5-day MA, Trimming Increase
GBP / USD is offered over a 5-day MA at 1.5174 in Asia, after the pair fell back to trade around 1.5155 ahead of UK wage growth data.
Trading above the 100-hour MA
The pair currently sits atop the 100-hour MA is located at the 1.5142 level. Closest focusing on UK data, which could show growth of wages including bonuses ticked higher in the three months to September.
Cable bull fighting against USD during the European session and NY Tuesday to extend technical recovery to 1.5186 in Asia today.
Technical level of GBP / USD
At 1.5157, immediate support is seen at 1.5138 (23.6% of the decline last week), in which the pair could extend decline to 1.5087 (61.8% of the rally from April to June). On the other hand, resistance is seen at 1.5174 (5-day MA) and 1.5206 (38.2% of the decline last week), on top of that this pair could test the 1.5248 (50% of the rally from April to June) ,
Trading above the 100-hour MA
The pair currently sits atop the 100-hour MA is located at the 1.5142 level. Closest focusing on UK data, which could show growth of wages including bonuses ticked higher in the three months to September.
Cable bull fighting against USD during the European session and NY Tuesday to extend technical recovery to 1.5186 in Asia today.
Technical level of GBP / USD
At 1.5157, immediate support is seen at 1.5138 (23.6% of the decline last week), in which the pair could extend decline to 1.5087 (61.8% of the rally from April to June). On the other hand, resistance is seen at 1.5174 (5-day MA) and 1.5206 (38.2% of the decline last week), on top of that this pair could test the 1.5248 (50% of the rally from April to June) ,
EUR / USD Reaches New Highest Session In Tokyo
The US dollar was under selling pressure until the early Tokyo, with EUR / USD last at 1.0740 session high, extending the rebound seen in the early hours of the US, when it reached 1.0675 lows.
EUR / USD: Sellers either in control
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet, share price action of EUR / USD Tuesday, noted: "There is no macro economic news that is relevant to guide investors, but beliefs through rise in US interest rates will come next December in force, even though the finance minister of US Lew expressed concern over the international woes affecting the US economy. "
Traders should be reminded that while in Europe will be doing business as usual, the US has a bank holiday this Wednesday, which should see a decrease in activity / volatility.
EUR / USD: Technical
Technically, Valeria reaffirmed in a report that the US daily, that "potential bearish firmly in place, there is no sign of a change in bias long term, based imbalance clear distinction between monetary policy of both countries. By scanning the 4-hour chart, Valeria identifies" SMA 20 has extended lower, now around 1.0775, while the RSI indicator is hardly bounces from oversold readings and Momentum indicators aiming higher below the 100 level, suggesting corrective upward movement is underway. "
EUR / USD: Sellers either in control
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet, share price action of EUR / USD Tuesday, noted: "There is no macro economic news that is relevant to guide investors, but beliefs through rise in US interest rates will come next December in force, even though the finance minister of US Lew expressed concern over the international woes affecting the US economy. "
Traders should be reminded that while in Europe will be doing business as usual, the US has a bank holiday this Wednesday, which should see a decrease in activity / volatility.
EUR / USD: Technical
Technically, Valeria reaffirmed in a report that the US daily, that "potential bearish firmly in place, there is no sign of a change in bias long term, based imbalance clear distinction between monetary policy of both countries. By scanning the 4-hour chart, Valeria identifies" SMA 20 has extended lower, now around 1.0775, while the RSI indicator is hardly bounces from oversold readings and Momentum indicators aiming higher below the 100 level, suggesting corrective upward movement is underway. "
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Balance Walking Japan Surplus four-fold, Stronger Yen
Japan's current account surplus up more than four-fold from April to September compared with last year. Such data as well as a surplus in Japan's highest level since the first half of fiscal year 2010, according to official reports the Japanese government on Tuesday (10/11). In addition, also mentioned that Japan's trade balance surplus was also due to the decline in imports due to lower oil prices.
Japan's current account surplus reached 8.693 billion yen, a bulging 4.3 fold from a year earlier, boosted by rising incomes abroad amid weak yen. The current account is the biggest parameter to measure a country's international trade.
The trade deficit of Japanese goods was reduced by 90.6 percent to number 419.7 billion yen from a year earlier due to rising exports as much as 2.8 percent to figure 37.22 trillion yen while imports slipped 7.4 percent to figure 37.64 trillion yen, as noted in a preliminary report released by the Ministry of Finance Japan today.
A drastic reduction in the import sector reflects a decline in oil imports by 34.0 percent. This condition is quite favorable for Japan given the country's import-dependent country since the destruction of nuclear energy sources by the tsunami in 2011.
USD / JPY sloping
After this report, the Yen traded at 123.07 per US dollar at 8:54 am in Tokyo, more powerful than the levels reached in the previous session. The yen had weakened to 8.5 percent during the month of September.
Japan's current account surplus reached 8.693 billion yen, a bulging 4.3 fold from a year earlier, boosted by rising incomes abroad amid weak yen. The current account is the biggest parameter to measure a country's international trade.
The trade deficit of Japanese goods was reduced by 90.6 percent to number 419.7 billion yen from a year earlier due to rising exports as much as 2.8 percent to figure 37.22 trillion yen while imports slipped 7.4 percent to figure 37.64 trillion yen, as noted in a preliminary report released by the Ministry of Finance Japan today.
A drastic reduction in the import sector reflects a decline in oil imports by 34.0 percent. This condition is quite favorable for Japan given the country's import-dependent country since the destruction of nuclear energy sources by the tsunami in 2011.
USD / JPY sloping
After this report, the Yen traded at 123.07 per US dollar at 8:54 am in Tokyo, more powerful than the levels reached in the previous session. The yen had weakened to 8.5 percent during the month of September.
Australian Dollar Flat After Business Confidence Data
The Australian dollar fell flat in the Asian session on Tuesday (10/11) this morning after reports of Australian business confidence as well as China's consumer inflation, the country's main export destination for Australia. AUD / USD was trading at 0.7047 slightly sloping 0:01 percent after two such data was announced.
Australian business confidence levels eased though still quite positive in October. Business confidence figures have also had through various revisions in the midst of change of leadership of the Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull.
NAB survey released monthly report showing that business confidence figures are at number 2 in October, down from number 5 in September. In addition, NAB also released data on home loans in September rose 2.0 percent, better than the 0.1 percent gain achieved in September.
Commenting on Australian business confidence engorgement, James Glenn, senior economist at NAB told Business Spectator that the worsening business confidence began to spread widely in some areas of Australia and the index impressed "wishy-washy". But nonetheless, continued Glenn, these conditions still lead to a recovery in the non-mining sector, mainly business individuals and business services.
Australian business confidence levels eased though still quite positive in October. Business confidence figures have also had through various revisions in the midst of change of leadership of the Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull.
NAB survey released monthly report showing that business confidence figures are at number 2 in October, down from number 5 in September. In addition, NAB also released data on home loans in September rose 2.0 percent, better than the 0.1 percent gain achieved in September.
Commenting on Australian business confidence engorgement, James Glenn, senior economist at NAB told Business Spectator that the worsening business confidence began to spread widely in some areas of Australia and the index impressed "wishy-washy". But nonetheless, continued Glenn, these conditions still lead to a recovery in the non-mining sector, mainly business individuals and business services.
Monday, November 9, 2015
Global events Key Will Monitored Traders this week - TDS
"Data of China (11 November): This Chinese data monthly, with retail sales, industrial production and inflation will all be released. The service sector and consumers are very neglected in China, especially when related to forecasts GDP. Although no major indicators are unreliable for this sector, retail sales would offer a good signal, and we lean towards a slight increase for the market has not changed + 10.9% / year and at 11% / year. On the production side, we see an increase to the market forecast of 5.8% , even if our estimate of 6.5% proved to be a little ambitious. And for the CPI, food prices were in October, we expect a lower decline in the overall CPI.
US retail sales in October (13 November): Momentum spending will remain on the weak side in October, and our expectations for retail sales to record the activities of a very slight increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis, marking a modest acceleration in spending momentum after stopping for two previous month. Stronger car sales and a rebound in gasoline sales will increase spending hikes. However, excluding cars and gas, sales will rise 0.1% below the standard monthly basis. Core shopping activities will also be quite weak, rising at 0.1% on a monthly basis under the standard rate, reflecting weaker household spending activity of the underlying. The overall tone of this report will be weak, underlining the significant decrease in consumer spending as global headwinds to filter the entire growth of the economy.
Fed speakers (All week): Calendar Fed will be quite busy this week, with a speech from Fed President William District, Bullard, Evens, Dudley and Vice Chair of Fischer might provide some much-needed direction in the near term outlook for monetary policy. Fed Chairman Yellen will also make public appearances, gave the opening speech at the Conference on Fed policy. "
US retail sales in October (13 November): Momentum spending will remain on the weak side in October, and our expectations for retail sales to record the activities of a very slight increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis, marking a modest acceleration in spending momentum after stopping for two previous month. Stronger car sales and a rebound in gasoline sales will increase spending hikes. However, excluding cars and gas, sales will rise 0.1% below the standard monthly basis. Core shopping activities will also be quite weak, rising at 0.1% on a monthly basis under the standard rate, reflecting weaker household spending activity of the underlying. The overall tone of this report will be weak, underlining the significant decrease in consumer spending as global headwinds to filter the entire growth of the economy.
Fed speakers (All week): Calendar Fed will be quite busy this week, with a speech from Fed President William District, Bullard, Evens, Dudley and Vice Chair of Fischer might provide some much-needed direction in the near term outlook for monetary policy. Fed Chairman Yellen will also make public appearances, gave the opening speech at the Conference on Fed policy. "
GBP / USD: 1.5080 Beyond Fighting Bull
GBPUSD recovery halt near 1.5080 area and slightly down ahead of the start of European trade, as the market continues to consider the risk events recently around the major currencies which occurred last week.
GBP / USD: The calm after the storm NFP
GBP / USD is trading 0.13% higher at 1.5074, retreating from session highs at 1.5077 in the last hour. Major currencies seeks to recover 50 points from multi-month lows on Monday and continues to be higher in an attempt to regain the 1.51 barrier.
Cable endlessly on sale on Friday after US jobs data are surprisingly positive market and reinforces the belief that the Fed will raise interest rates in December.
The pound lost almost 500 points against the US Dollar last week, face a double whammy of a summary of the meeting and the BoE dovish Qir unexpected. Yellen added while hawkish comments by US jobs data also weighing an incredible GBP / USD.
The major currencies will follow the broader market sentiment in the absence of UK data, while the US session also offers limited economic data for this couple.
Rate of GBP / USD for consideration
The pair has immediate resistance at 1.5100 (round figure), above the 1.5153 (5-day MA) will be tested. On the other hand, support is seen at 1.5042 (today's low). Selling pressure will intensify in the bottom of it, dragging the pair towards 1.5028 (Low 6 November).
GBP / USD: The calm after the storm NFP
GBP / USD is trading 0.13% higher at 1.5074, retreating from session highs at 1.5077 in the last hour. Major currencies seeks to recover 50 points from multi-month lows on Monday and continues to be higher in an attempt to regain the 1.51 barrier.
Cable endlessly on sale on Friday after US jobs data are surprisingly positive market and reinforces the belief that the Fed will raise interest rates in December.
The pound lost almost 500 points against the US Dollar last week, face a double whammy of a summary of the meeting and the BoE dovish Qir unexpected. Yellen added while hawkish comments by US jobs data also weighing an incredible GBP / USD.
The major currencies will follow the broader market sentiment in the absence of UK data, while the US session also offers limited economic data for this couple.
Rate of GBP / USD for consideration
The pair has immediate resistance at 1.5100 (round figure), above the 1.5153 (5-day MA) will be tested. On the other hand, support is seen at 1.5042 (today's low). Selling pressure will intensify in the bottom of it, dragging the pair towards 1.5028 (Low 6 November).
GBP / USD 1.5100 Looks To Get Back
Sterling traded at a better foothold in the beginning of the week, pushing the GBP / USD to test 1.5070 area so far.
GBP / USD found support close to 1.5020
Spot slowly recover part of the sell-off seen last week after the first dovish Bank of England, and both the US Non-Farm Payrolls solid, has been dragged to the 7-month lows in the 1.5020 area.
This week will be dominated by expectations of a Fed rate hike in December and the dynamics of the USD. However, the labor market outcomes wrench and Governor Carney's speech tomorrow ready to keep sterling under supervision, at least in the near future.
Level GBP / USD is concerned
At the moment, the pair is up 0.12% at 1.5071 facing the next resistance at 1.5135 (23.6% of 1.5496 to 1.5023) followed by 1.5227 (uptrend 7 months prior support now resistance ) and then 1.5324 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.5023 (6 November lows) would aim to 1.4948 (January 23 low) and lastly 1.4563 (2015 low on April 13).
GBP / USD found support close to 1.5020
Spot slowly recover part of the sell-off seen last week after the first dovish Bank of England, and both the US Non-Farm Payrolls solid, has been dragged to the 7-month lows in the 1.5020 area.
This week will be dominated by expectations of a Fed rate hike in December and the dynamics of the USD. However, the labor market outcomes wrench and Governor Carney's speech tomorrow ready to keep sterling under supervision, at least in the near future.
Level GBP / USD is concerned
At the moment, the pair is up 0.12% at 1.5071 facing the next resistance at 1.5135 (23.6% of 1.5496 to 1.5023) followed by 1.5227 (uptrend 7 months prior support now resistance ) and then 1.5324 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.5023 (6 November lows) would aim to 1.4948 (January 23 low) and lastly 1.4563 (2015 low on April 13).
EUR / USD Up As Equities Decline
EUR / USD hit a fresh session of 1.0774 and heading up because of major European equity futures pointing to a weak trading day ahead.
Focus on equity
Spot is likely to remain focused on the action in the stock market, given the absence of major data mover market. NFP release on Friday underlines the growing divergence between the Fed and the ECB. However, the EUR can benefit in terms of capital markets reacted negatively to the increase bets the Fed interest rate hikes.
At this time, bid three futures in Europe - DAX, FTSE and CAC - traded in decline, while the EUR / USD is trading around the 1.0771 level.
Level Technical EUR / USD
Immediate resistance lies at 1.0808 (July 20 low), rise above it can be extended to 1.0848 (lowest August 5). On the downside, a break below 1.0758 (76.4% of the rally Mar-August) will open the door to retest Friday's lows at 1.0705.
Focus on equity
Spot is likely to remain focused on the action in the stock market, given the absence of major data mover market. NFP release on Friday underlines the growing divergence between the Fed and the ECB. However, the EUR can benefit in terms of capital markets reacted negatively to the increase bets the Fed interest rate hikes.
At this time, bid three futures in Europe - DAX, FTSE and CAC - traded in decline, while the EUR / USD is trading around the 1.0771 level.
Level Technical EUR / USD
Immediate resistance lies at 1.0808 (July 20 low), rise above it can be extended to 1.0848 (lowest August 5). On the downside, a break below 1.0758 (76.4% of the rally Mar-August) will open the door to retest Friday's lows at 1.0705.
Bonus Summer Wages Japan sag, USD / JPY Steady
Bonus summer in Japan fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis even though the monthly salary of workers in the State Sakura continued to rise in three months in a row in September, according to data reported by the Japanese government on Monday (09/11) this. It is ultimately not reduce concerns about the slowing down of wages and private consumption in Japan.
Real wages, adjusted for inflation, rose only 0.5 percent year-on-year in September, up to three third consecutive month. The nominal amount of wages still reflects tame inflation, which is reported as employment data today. While the average summer bonus paid during June to August recorded a number of 356.791 yen, down 2.8 percent from the previous year.
Japanese policymakers to press employers to use cash at their disposal to boost labor costs and capital expenditures because, these efforts will be powering growth and inflation accelerate progress. Japan's total labor income increased 0.6 percent year-on-year in September to 265.527 yen figures and overtime pay go up 1.4 percent.
The report does not mean much for the Yen after subverted by the dollar strengthened against the yen as much as 0.1 percent to 123.25 figure after reaching 123.35 high on Friday after US NFP. USD / JPY this morning still at a high level of 123 327 after the Japanese labor report.
Real wages, adjusted for inflation, rose only 0.5 percent year-on-year in September, up to three third consecutive month. The nominal amount of wages still reflects tame inflation, which is reported as employment data today. While the average summer bonus paid during June to August recorded a number of 356.791 yen, down 2.8 percent from the previous year.
Japanese policymakers to press employers to use cash at their disposal to boost labor costs and capital expenditures because, these efforts will be powering growth and inflation accelerate progress. Japan's total labor income increased 0.6 percent year-on-year in September to 265.527 yen figures and overtime pay go up 1.4 percent.
The report does not mean much for the Yen after subverted by the dollar strengthened against the yen as much as 0.1 percent to 123.25 figure after reaching 123.35 high on Friday after US NFP. USD / JPY this morning still at a high level of 123 327 after the Japanese labor report.
EUR / USD: Dollar USD Will Extend The increase, Beware of the Opening Gap
EUR / USD Current Price: 1.0738
US dollar closed last week at its highest level in a week against all major rivals after the release of positive US employment report is surprising. According to the latest release, the US economy added 271,000 new jobs in October, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.0%, the lowest in seven years. Wages also beat expectations, and now has increased 2.5% annually, paving the way for a rate hike in December. USD rose sharply after the release, and spend all the American session consolidating gains.
Over the weekend, China released the trade balance figures, which showed a surplus of 393.2 billion yuan in October. Exports fell for the fourth consecutive month, while imports fell for twelve consecutive months, in line with the economic slowdown recently. The dollar may rise further, and even gap at the opening, after this news.
EUR / USD dipped to 1.0703, to finally settle at 1.07381, can rise above 1.0760, now a direct short-term resistance. Traded at levels not seen since the end of April this year, the daily chart shows that SMA 20 has passed below the SMA 100 and 200 is far above the current level, while technical indicators present a bearish slope strong, though in oversold territory, all support the decline Furthermore. In the 4 hours chart, momentum indicators aiming higher below the 100 level, while the RSI indicator remained flat at about 24, guard against downside risks, especially on a break below 1.0700.
Support levels: 1.0700 1.0660 1.0625
Resistance levels: 1.0760 1.0800 1.0845
EUR / JPY Current price: 132.26
EUR / JPY fell to 131.44 last Friday, but closed the day quite a lot has changed around 132.30, even in the midst of weakness EUR and JPY against the greenback. However, the couple maintained a bearish tone seen over the past two weeks, as the daily chart shows that it established a lower low below SMA 100 and 200, while technical indicators maintain their bearish slope deep into negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, however, the Momentum indicator aims a little higher above the center line, partially limiting the potential bottom, although at a price far below MA and RSI indicators head south around 45, the possibility of upward movement seems too limited. Immediate support stands at 131.80, with penembuan below may indicate a new monthly lows below 131.00 levels.
Support levels: 131.80 131.30 130.75
Resistance levels: 132.60 133.00 133.45
GBP / USD Current Price: 1.5047
British Pound fell to a fresh 7-month lows against the greenback, and closed the week a few pips above the low 1.5026, after declining last week. Negative surprise given by the BOE, delaying interest rate hikes in the UK, and the US employment report that is circulating, triggering chances rise in December, highlighting the imbalance between the Central Bank, which leads to a decline of 360 pips in two days. Decrease stop a few pips above the kritis1,5000, but the risk of a break below it has grown exponentially, and can generate a retest of the 1.4565 low before the end of the year. Technically, the daily chart supports the bearish continuation, given that the price stands now well below 20 SMA, while maintaining the technical indicators bearish sharp slope approaching oversold levels. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have partially restore the negative tone, but remained in extreme oversold territory, far from the impression of corrective upward movement.
Support levels: 1.5000 1.4970 1.4930
Resistance levels: 1.5080 1.5130 1.5160
USD / JPY Current price: 123.15
The pair USD / JPY staged a sharp rally, posted the biggest weekly gain in more than six months, and closed at 123.15, a few pips below the 123.26 high. This pair has been in demand ahead of the release of the US employment report, after starting the day in the top DMA 100 and 200 for the first time since the end of August, and has been driven by a strong reading, supporting the rise in US interest rates for December. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that, despite having advanced above mentioned MA, lack the power directional ago, still flat and in the range of 20 pips. Technical indicators, however, presents a strong upward momentum in overbought territory, in line with the sustained rise. Short-term, the 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators have lost power over them and turned lower, but they are still in extreme overbought levels. Given the limited retracement of high and tight consolidation approach, the risks remain to the upside, with the market now targeting this year's high at 125.80.
Support levels: 122.80 122.50 122.20
Resistance levels: 123.35 123.80 124.25
AUD / USD Current Price: 0.7041
The Australian dollar last Friday to start moving upward, following the release of a variety of Minutes of the RBA, but eventually succumbed to the power of the dollar, with AUD / USD ended the week at 0.7041. Reserve Bank of Australia offers a relatively optimistic outlook for the economy, but at the same time lowering their inflation and growth forecasts. Daily chart for the pair shows that, after a decline of 20 SMA bearish last week, prices have accelerated the decline, while technical indicators have turned sharply lower below their midlines, supporting a further decline this week, especially after the release of trade balance data China bad over the weekend. Short-term, the 4 hours chart shows that the momentum indicator has risen some from oversold levels, but the RSI indicator was flat in oversold levels, leaving little room for recovery in the short term.
Support levels: 0.7030 0.6980 0.6940
0.7070 0.7110 0.7150 resistance level
US dollar closed last week at its highest level in a week against all major rivals after the release of positive US employment report is surprising. According to the latest release, the US economy added 271,000 new jobs in October, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.0%, the lowest in seven years. Wages also beat expectations, and now has increased 2.5% annually, paving the way for a rate hike in December. USD rose sharply after the release, and spend all the American session consolidating gains.
Over the weekend, China released the trade balance figures, which showed a surplus of 393.2 billion yuan in October. Exports fell for the fourth consecutive month, while imports fell for twelve consecutive months, in line with the economic slowdown recently. The dollar may rise further, and even gap at the opening, after this news.
EUR / USD dipped to 1.0703, to finally settle at 1.07381, can rise above 1.0760, now a direct short-term resistance. Traded at levels not seen since the end of April this year, the daily chart shows that SMA 20 has passed below the SMA 100 and 200 is far above the current level, while technical indicators present a bearish slope strong, though in oversold territory, all support the decline Furthermore. In the 4 hours chart, momentum indicators aiming higher below the 100 level, while the RSI indicator remained flat at about 24, guard against downside risks, especially on a break below 1.0700.
Support levels: 1.0700 1.0660 1.0625
Resistance levels: 1.0760 1.0800 1.0845
EUR / JPY Current price: 132.26
EUR / JPY fell to 131.44 last Friday, but closed the day quite a lot has changed around 132.30, even in the midst of weakness EUR and JPY against the greenback. However, the couple maintained a bearish tone seen over the past two weeks, as the daily chart shows that it established a lower low below SMA 100 and 200, while technical indicators maintain their bearish slope deep into negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, however, the Momentum indicator aims a little higher above the center line, partially limiting the potential bottom, although at a price far below MA and RSI indicators head south around 45, the possibility of upward movement seems too limited. Immediate support stands at 131.80, with penembuan below may indicate a new monthly lows below 131.00 levels.
Support levels: 131.80 131.30 130.75
Resistance levels: 132.60 133.00 133.45
GBP / USD Current Price: 1.5047
British Pound fell to a fresh 7-month lows against the greenback, and closed the week a few pips above the low 1.5026, after declining last week. Negative surprise given by the BOE, delaying interest rate hikes in the UK, and the US employment report that is circulating, triggering chances rise in December, highlighting the imbalance between the Central Bank, which leads to a decline of 360 pips in two days. Decrease stop a few pips above the kritis1,5000, but the risk of a break below it has grown exponentially, and can generate a retest of the 1.4565 low before the end of the year. Technically, the daily chart supports the bearish continuation, given that the price stands now well below 20 SMA, while maintaining the technical indicators bearish sharp slope approaching oversold levels. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have partially restore the negative tone, but remained in extreme oversold territory, far from the impression of corrective upward movement.
Support levels: 1.5000 1.4970 1.4930
Resistance levels: 1.5080 1.5130 1.5160
USD / JPY Current price: 123.15
The pair USD / JPY staged a sharp rally, posted the biggest weekly gain in more than six months, and closed at 123.15, a few pips below the 123.26 high. This pair has been in demand ahead of the release of the US employment report, after starting the day in the top DMA 100 and 200 for the first time since the end of August, and has been driven by a strong reading, supporting the rise in US interest rates for December. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that, despite having advanced above mentioned MA, lack the power directional ago, still flat and in the range of 20 pips. Technical indicators, however, presents a strong upward momentum in overbought territory, in line with the sustained rise. Short-term, the 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators have lost power over them and turned lower, but they are still in extreme overbought levels. Given the limited retracement of high and tight consolidation approach, the risks remain to the upside, with the market now targeting this year's high at 125.80.
Support levels: 122.80 122.50 122.20
Resistance levels: 123.35 123.80 124.25
AUD / USD Current Price: 0.7041
The Australian dollar last Friday to start moving upward, following the release of a variety of Minutes of the RBA, but eventually succumbed to the power of the dollar, with AUD / USD ended the week at 0.7041. Reserve Bank of Australia offers a relatively optimistic outlook for the economy, but at the same time lowering their inflation and growth forecasts. Daily chart for the pair shows that, after a decline of 20 SMA bearish last week, prices have accelerated the decline, while technical indicators have turned sharply lower below their midlines, supporting a further decline this week, especially after the release of trade balance data China bad over the weekend. Short-term, the 4 hours chart shows that the momentum indicator has risen some from oversold levels, but the RSI indicator was flat in oversold levels, leaving little room for recovery in the short term.
Support levels: 0.7030 0.6980 0.6940
0.7070 0.7110 0.7150 resistance level
Sunday, November 8, 2015
Fundamental Data Recap 9-13 November 2015
Janet Yellen Hawkishnya testimony in front of the parliament and the improvement in US employment data has led the US dollar strengthened against all major currencies last week. Yellen said that the increase in the benchmark interest rate the Fed may be done in December as long as supported by fundamental data. With October employment data were unexpectedly much better than the market forecast makes that possibility even greater. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) in October increased 271 000 jobs, the highest increase so far this year, while the average wage per hour (average hourly earnings) rose 0.4%, higher than the estimate would rise 0.2% and was the highest increase since the month July 2009. The unemployment rate back down to 5.0% figure, the lowest since 2008.
Post-release employment data on Friday last week, forecasts a possible increase in the Fed's benchmark interest rate in December according to the Fed Funds Futures was 72%, up from the previous 56%. Until the release of employment data next on 4th December, sentiment towards the USD expected to remain positive. For this week's important data from the US retail sales in October and consumer confidence index UoM version that will be released next Friday.
Post-release employment data on Friday last week, forecasts a possible increase in the Fed's benchmark interest rate in December according to the Fed Funds Futures was 72%, up from the previous 56%. Until the release of employment data next on 4th December, sentiment towards the USD expected to remain positive. For this week's important data from the US retail sales in October and consumer confidence index UoM version that will be released next Friday.
The focus this week is data Flash GDP Euro area 3rd quarter which will also be released later Friday. Responding to the global economic slowdown, the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) October 22 president Mario Draghi plans to cut deposit rates and add stimulus at a meeting in December if the data inflation and growth is worse than ever. Thus the 3rd quarter GDP data will be crucial. With annual inflation negative, if GDP is lower than the previous quarter grew 0.4% then it is likely the ECB will add to stimulus or cut the deposit rate at meetingnya next month that will further depress the exchange rate of the Euro currency.
Data and other important events is China's annual inflation, Jobless Claims and the index of the average wage in the UK, Australia Employment Change, US PPI, GDP Germany, Mario Draghi's speech, Mark Carney, Graeme Wheeler and members of the FOMC.
Data and other important events is China's annual inflation, Jobless Claims and the index of the average wage in the UK, Australia Employment Change, US PPI, GDP Germany, Mario Draghi's speech, Mark Carney, Graeme Wheeler and members of the FOMC.
Friday, November 6, 2015
Channel Down EUR / USD Awaits Non-Farm Payroll
EUR / USD is still not able to move from level price of under 1.1, due to financial projections Europe is still low and positive sentiment USD over the plan to raise interest rates, while QE although it would also weaken the Euro, but it is likely to be revised, following the development of the bank's policy central Other countries, notably the Fed's policy of interest rate hikes.
Technically in the chart of EUR / USD H4 time frame identified the Channel Down pattern, penetration level has not happened suport / resistannya, while the price is near the support level with the condition of Stochastic Oscillator already cross abandon its oversold zone. Under these conditions, in the short term there is the possibility of EUR / USD rebound. Thus traders can undergo long action buy with a target of 1.1080. However it is worth noting that tonight the US will release data on Non Farm Payroll with forecast better than ever, therefore, needs to be placed stop loss or stop sell order at the price level of 1.0823 (10 pips below the low nearby) with the possibility of a further decline to 1.0520an price level (low in April 2015).
Technically in the chart of EUR / USD H4 time frame identified the Channel Down pattern, penetration level has not happened suport / resistannya, while the price is near the support level with the condition of Stochastic Oscillator already cross abandon its oversold zone. Under these conditions, in the short term there is the possibility of EUR / USD rebound. Thus traders can undergo long action buy with a target of 1.1080. However it is worth noting that tonight the US will release data on Non Farm Payroll with forecast better than ever, therefore, needs to be placed stop loss or stop sell order at the price level of 1.0823 (10 pips below the low nearby) with the possibility of a further decline to 1.0520an price level (low in April 2015).
October US Nonfarm Payrolls Rising
Labor Department data released today showed the US economy added jobs in October number much larger than expected, adding to evidence of a tightening labor market.
Non-farm payrolls in October printed at 271K, 180k beating estimates by a wide margin. The previous figure was revised to 137K from 142K. The unemployment rate dipped further to 5.0% from 5.1% in September and the participation rate remained unchanged at 62.4%.
Wages per hour print biggest annual rise since 2009
Earnings per hour on average increased by 0.4% (an estimated 0.2%, previous 0.0%) from the previous month and 2.5% over the past year.
The October report is strong enough to add to evidence the economy is on track for modest growth, while the labor market continues to tighten. Overall the report could encourage betting Fed rate hike in December
Non-farm payrolls in October printed at 271K, 180k beating estimates by a wide margin. The previous figure was revised to 137K from 142K. The unemployment rate dipped further to 5.0% from 5.1% in September and the participation rate remained unchanged at 62.4%.
Wages per hour print biggest annual rise since 2009
Earnings per hour on average increased by 0.4% (an estimated 0.2%, previous 0.0%) from the previous month and 2.5% over the past year.
The October report is strong enough to add to evidence the economy is on track for modest growth, while the labor market continues to tighten. Overall the report could encourage betting Fed rate hike in December
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Yellen: Fed Rate Still Possible Rise in December
Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, last night (4/11) reaffirmed that the Fed rate hikes may still be made in December 2015 when the data that will come to support the decision. His view supports the strengthening of the US dollar-the currency against another currency.
Yellen said, "Currently there are no decisions made about (the increase in the fed rate) and, terms upon which (the decision) was propped up against is the assessment (FOMC) at the time (increase) was (considered). Assessment will be compiled from information of all the data we collect between now and the time (FOMC December) it. "
Yellen also said that he and his team expect the US economy will grow in pace that can generate further improvements in the labor market, and return inflation to the target of two per cent of them. Further, if the information forward to support these expectations, the Fed rate hike in December is "live possibility" (most active).
Yellen's views are echoed by his deputy, Stanley Fischer, in his speech at the annual dinner of the National Economists Club a few hours later. Fischer expressed his belief that diminishing unemployment will push inflation higher, and thus the inflation target of two per cent was not so far out of reach. According to him, the target will be reached once oil prices stop falling and the strengthening dollar restrained.
After Yellen's testimony in front of the Financial Services Committee of the US Parliament, Fed Funds Futures indicate a 60 percent chance of the Fed raising interest rates at the FOMC meeting next month. Bloomberg US Dollar Index weighting USD compared to a group of other currencies also rocketed to 97 923, its highest level since July 2015.
Correspondingly, the EUR / USD collapsed to 1.0844, the lowest level since August. Market participants seem to reconcile that statement with a speech Yellen dovish ECB Mario Draghi on the same day, and concluded that the contrast between the two central bank policy is a compelling reason to busy to remove Euro. GBP / USD also fell to 1.5361, while USD / JPY reached the 121.71 level which previously had touched on 24 October.
Yellen said, "Currently there are no decisions made about (the increase in the fed rate) and, terms upon which (the decision) was propped up against is the assessment (FOMC) at the time (increase) was (considered). Assessment will be compiled from information of all the data we collect between now and the time (FOMC December) it. "
Yellen also said that he and his team expect the US economy will grow in pace that can generate further improvements in the labor market, and return inflation to the target of two per cent of them. Further, if the information forward to support these expectations, the Fed rate hike in December is "live possibility" (most active).
Yellen's views are echoed by his deputy, Stanley Fischer, in his speech at the annual dinner of the National Economists Club a few hours later. Fischer expressed his belief that diminishing unemployment will push inflation higher, and thus the inflation target of two per cent was not so far out of reach. According to him, the target will be reached once oil prices stop falling and the strengthening dollar restrained.
After Yellen's testimony in front of the Financial Services Committee of the US Parliament, Fed Funds Futures indicate a 60 percent chance of the Fed raising interest rates at the FOMC meeting next month. Bloomberg US Dollar Index weighting USD compared to a group of other currencies also rocketed to 97 923, its highest level since July 2015.
Correspondingly, the EUR / USD collapsed to 1.0844, the lowest level since August. Market participants seem to reconcile that statement with a speech Yellen dovish ECB Mario Draghi on the same day, and concluded that the contrast between the two central bank policy is a compelling reason to busy to remove Euro. GBP / USD also fell to 1.5361, while USD / JPY reached the 121.71 level which previously had touched on 24 October.
EUR / USD, November 5: Below 1.0895 Threatens Crucial Mid-Term Support
Comments Draghi reiterated the possibility of additional measures to stimulate the growth of inflation in December, and the release of some positive US data (ADP, Trade Balance, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI), causing more and more depressed Euro versus Dollar. Overall look mighty greenback against major currencies rivals as growing investor optimism returning to the US economic outlook and its relation to the planned increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rate at the end of 2015.
Technically, Inside Bar breakout below 1.0995 (Low to October 23) is the main triggers that attract sellers to test 1.0895 (October 28th Low) and then dealing with the crucial support medium-term 1.0807 (Low-July 20). To see a clearer picture, perhaps we better observe the current technical conditions in the Weekly chart, as shown below:
Technically, Inside Bar breakout below 1.0995 (Low to October 23) is the main triggers that attract sellers to test 1.0895 (October 28th Low) and then dealing with the crucial support medium-term 1.0807 (Low-July 20). To see a clearer picture, perhaps we better observe the current technical conditions in the Weekly chart, as shown below:
Break or closing price (Weekly / Daily) below 1.0807 is needed to confirm a breakout from the Ascending Channel (Weekly / Daily), ending a consolidation phase (rebound from 1.0461 to touch 1.1713).
While on the H4 chart, the equilibrium level of Kijun-sen has been shifted slightly downwards and is now located at 1.0957, as shown below:
While on the H4 chart, the equilibrium level of Kijun-sen has been shifted slightly downwards and is now located at 1.0957, as shown below:
On the upside, above 1.0895 is needed to reduce the bearish pressure and open the way to deal with the balance of Kijun-sen level H4 scale which is now located at 1.0957. Small correction possibilities are still open but should be limited given that the focus of investor / market this week is the release of NFP data (Friday, November 6).
In contrast to the downside, below 1.0895 will still keep the bearish risks for the medium-term testing crucial support is located at 1.0807.
Outlook / Intraday bias: negative H4
Resistance: 1.0895, 1.0957, 1.0995
Support: 1.0807, 1.0665
In contrast to the downside, below 1.0895 will still keep the bearish risks for the medium-term testing crucial support is located at 1.0807.
Outlook / Intraday bias: negative H4
Resistance: 1.0895, 1.0957, 1.0995
Support: 1.0807, 1.0665
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
Australian Dollar Gains
Australian Bureau of Statistics this morning (4/11) reported a decrease in the trade deficit better than expected and retail sales data in line with expectations. The Australian dollar also strengthened against currencies-currencies, while the market is still looking forward to the release of nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
Australia's trade balance deficit narrowed from 2.7 billion in August to 2:32 billion Australian dollar in September. The achievement exceeded the consensus estimate, in line with the growth rate of exports exceeded imports. This deficit is also the lowest in the past seven months, thus raising hopes remain smooth foreign trade in Australia and its main trading partner countries, China, is experiencing an economic slowdown.
Retail sales in the land of kangaroos for the period of September increased by 0.4 percent (MoM), together with the acquisition of the previous month. Sales of household goods, clothing, footwear, and accessories increased, as well as cafes, restaurants, and fast food providers. This increase is offset the drastic decline experienced by department store sales. Positive retail sales numbers is a sign of domestic demand conditions are prime.
AUD / USD soared to 0.7205, while AUD / JPY jumped to 87.40, respectively reached its highest level in about a week.
AUD / USD tends to strengthen in recent days, although the Aussie was hit by the Chinese PMI data at the beginning of Monday's Asian session. Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to leave interest rates remain at 2 per cent support the optimism of market participants. On the other hand, investors are still warn, warn dealing with the US Dollar ahead of the release of Nonfarm Payrolls figures this weekend.
Australia's trade balance deficit narrowed from 2.7 billion in August to 2:32 billion Australian dollar in September. The achievement exceeded the consensus estimate, in line with the growth rate of exports exceeded imports. This deficit is also the lowest in the past seven months, thus raising hopes remain smooth foreign trade in Australia and its main trading partner countries, China, is experiencing an economic slowdown.
Retail sales in the land of kangaroos for the period of September increased by 0.4 percent (MoM), together with the acquisition of the previous month. Sales of household goods, clothing, footwear, and accessories increased, as well as cafes, restaurants, and fast food providers. This increase is offset the drastic decline experienced by department store sales. Positive retail sales numbers is a sign of domestic demand conditions are prime.
AUD / USD soared to 0.7205, while AUD / JPY jumped to 87.40, respectively reached its highest level in about a week.
AUD / USD tends to strengthen in recent days, although the Aussie was hit by the Chinese PMI data at the beginning of Monday's Asian session. Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to leave interest rates remain at 2 per cent support the optimism of market participants. On the other hand, investors are still warn, warn dealing with the US Dollar ahead of the release of Nonfarm Payrolls figures this weekend.
EUR / USD dropped significantly await US NFP
EUR / USD dropped significantly in the trading session Tuesday night (3/11), amid anticipation of US NFP important data to be released Friday this week. Results employment report from the land of Uncle Sam will give further signals related to the decision by the Fed to raise short-term interest rates this year.
EUR / USD traded between 1.0937 and 1.1053 in yesterday's trading session, before finally ending at the position 1.0962, down 0.0053 points, or as much as 0:48%. Since October 20, Euro countless always closed lower against the USD in 9 trading sessions. In fact, the pair had ambles 2:05% during a massive sell-off on 22 October. Throughout the last month, the EUR was down as much as 2.1% against the Greenback. Meanwhile, the USD Index rose 0.3% to an intraday high at 97.57, before closing at 97.26.
NFP Projected Rise, Investors Still Reluctant
Broadly speaking, investors seem reluctant to take a step ahead of the NFP in October. The data is diekspektasikan rose to 190,000, far higher than the slight increase as much as 142,000 in the previous month. Economists also predict the unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 0.5%, and the average wage per hour grew by 0.2%. The Fed has already signaled that they will monitor the employment data to consider further policy measures.
Mario Draghi: ECB Ready to Act
On the other hand, ECB President Mario Draghi continues to send a strong signal about the possibility of the ECB to add stimulus at a meeting of board members in December. At a meeting last October, Draghi has indicated the prospect of further easing to support the rate of inflation.
"Program-asset purchase program is still running smoothly and continues to show positive results ..." said Draghi at the moment of the opening of the European Cultural Days in Frankfurt. He then added that, "While domestic demand is still strong, concerns on the potential of emerging markets and other external factors now creating a risk weighing on the outlook for growth and inflation."
The ECB president said if in this context, the degree of accommodation of monetary policy of the ECB need to be reanalyzed at a meeting in December. "The board members are willing and able to act with the utmost intstrumen there if that's what it takes to maintain the stability of monetary accommodation." he added.
EUR / USD traded between 1.0937 and 1.1053 in yesterday's trading session, before finally ending at the position 1.0962, down 0.0053 points, or as much as 0:48%. Since October 20, Euro countless always closed lower against the USD in 9 trading sessions. In fact, the pair had ambles 2:05% during a massive sell-off on 22 October. Throughout the last month, the EUR was down as much as 2.1% against the Greenback. Meanwhile, the USD Index rose 0.3% to an intraday high at 97.57, before closing at 97.26.
NFP Projected Rise, Investors Still Reluctant
Broadly speaking, investors seem reluctant to take a step ahead of the NFP in October. The data is diekspektasikan rose to 190,000, far higher than the slight increase as much as 142,000 in the previous month. Economists also predict the unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 0.5%, and the average wage per hour grew by 0.2%. The Fed has already signaled that they will monitor the employment data to consider further policy measures.
Mario Draghi: ECB Ready to Act
On the other hand, ECB President Mario Draghi continues to send a strong signal about the possibility of the ECB to add stimulus at a meeting of board members in December. At a meeting last October, Draghi has indicated the prospect of further easing to support the rate of inflation.
"Program-asset purchase program is still running smoothly and continues to show positive results ..." said Draghi at the moment of the opening of the European Cultural Days in Frankfurt. He then added that, "While domestic demand is still strong, concerns on the potential of emerging markets and other external factors now creating a risk weighing on the outlook for growth and inflation."
The ECB president said if in this context, the degree of accommodation of monetary policy of the ECB need to be reanalyzed at a meeting in December. "The board members are willing and able to act with the utmost intstrumen there if that's what it takes to maintain the stability of monetary accommodation." he added.
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
Aussie strengthened ahead of the RBA Interest Rate Decision
Policy meeting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today (3/11) assessed some parties as a significant moment for the central bank in 2015. Ahead of the announcement after the meeting at 10.30 later, the Aussie traded higher, particularly against the US Dollar and Yen
AUD / JPY recorded gains two consecutive days despite their low Caixin China Manufacturing PMI yesterday, jumped to the 86.50 region. Meanwhile, despite sluggish at the beginning of Monday's Asian session, but in today's early Asian session the AUD / USD traded up to around 0.7165, the highest level since October 28. In addition due to the weak US dollar after the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI last night, the market also anticipate the RBA will maintain the level of interest rates ever.
Most analysts rate the RBA will leave interest rates at a rate of 2 percent for this occasion. Only 12 of the 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect there will be a rate cut to 1.75 percent.
Despite sluggish economic growth and inflation, but the central bank has so far seem quite satisfied on the contribution of the low exchange rate of AUD to sustain non-mining sector. Most experts also predict the RBA's board of governors will ignore CPI jebloknya third quarter released last week.
Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management also expects the RBA will not raise interest rates, but he told the Sydney Morning Herald that "Although the RBA can allow a fixed rate, (but) there is reason to be dovish, and comments (impressed) carefully could push the Australian dollar (to level) is lower. "
AUD / JPY recorded gains two consecutive days despite their low Caixin China Manufacturing PMI yesterday, jumped to the 86.50 region. Meanwhile, despite sluggish at the beginning of Monday's Asian session, but in today's early Asian session the AUD / USD traded up to around 0.7165, the highest level since October 28. In addition due to the weak US dollar after the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI last night, the market also anticipate the RBA will maintain the level of interest rates ever.
Most analysts rate the RBA will leave interest rates at a rate of 2 percent for this occasion. Only 12 of the 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect there will be a rate cut to 1.75 percent.
Despite sluggish economic growth and inflation, but the central bank has so far seem quite satisfied on the contribution of the low exchange rate of AUD to sustain non-mining sector. Most experts also predict the RBA's board of governors will ignore CPI jebloknya third quarter released last week.
Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management also expects the RBA will not raise interest rates, but he told the Sydney Morning Herald that "Although the RBA can allow a fixed rate, (but) there is reason to be dovish, and comments (impressed) carefully could push the Australian dollar (to level) is lower. "
UK PMI Manufacturing Slump, GBP / USD Slips
Nothing is surprising from the UK Construction PMI release. Such data fell within expectations, although konsruksi recorded output rose in October. Respond to this news, Sterling declined limited and test daily lows at 1.5409. Thursday (5/11) will be an important day for GBP traders given the BoE (Bank of England) will release a lot of reports significantly as interest rate decision and the inflation outlook.
UK Construction Sector Still Expanding
UK Construction PMI which was released this afternoon (3/11) indicate a decline in line with expectations to a level of 58.8, lower than the previous month at 59.9. In fact, manufacturing data yesterday showed a surprising reinforcement, to be able to push the position of the pound sterling against other major currencies. Despite the decline, the construction PMI figures were still perched above 50 suggests expansion stability of the UK in this sector.
Markit Economics reported that construction output rose in October for the support of additional employment grew at the fastest rate in the last 12 months. Business activity continued to show growth in all three sub-categories, namely the development in the housing sector, commercial, and public. However, of the three sub-categories, only construction in the commercial sector showed significant growth rate in September. Two other sectors actually shows a slight decline.
Not Too Effect On Sterling
At time of writing, GBP / USD shows a slight weakening after the release of the construction PMI report. However, the ongoing decline in the daily range so that the movement of this pair is still relatively stable response to the decline in construction PMI data. Before the publication of these data, the GBP / USD had hit a daily high at 1.5445. This week, the focus will be centered on the pound sterling "Super Thursday", where the BOE will release its interest rate decision, minutes of meetings, and quarterly inflation report on the same day.
UK Construction Sector Still Expanding
UK Construction PMI which was released this afternoon (3/11) indicate a decline in line with expectations to a level of 58.8, lower than the previous month at 59.9. In fact, manufacturing data yesterday showed a surprising reinforcement, to be able to push the position of the pound sterling against other major currencies. Despite the decline, the construction PMI figures were still perched above 50 suggests expansion stability of the UK in this sector.
Markit Economics reported that construction output rose in October for the support of additional employment grew at the fastest rate in the last 12 months. Business activity continued to show growth in all three sub-categories, namely the development in the housing sector, commercial, and public. However, of the three sub-categories, only construction in the commercial sector showed significant growth rate in September. Two other sectors actually shows a slight decline.
Not Too Effect On Sterling
At time of writing, GBP / USD shows a slight weakening after the release of the construction PMI report. However, the ongoing decline in the daily range so that the movement of this pair is still relatively stable response to the decline in construction PMI data. Before the publication of these data, the GBP / USD had hit a daily high at 1.5445. This week, the focus will be centered on the pound sterling "Super Thursday", where the BOE will release its interest rate decision, minutes of meetings, and quarterly inflation report on the same day.
Monday, November 2, 2015
EURUSD: predictions for November 2 to 8
The market is still convinced that the European Central Bank will ease monetary policy further either in December or early next year. The expectations act as a drag on the single currency with an end to any recovery of the EUR / USD. The pair will meet resistance in large numbers 1:11, 1:12 and then at 1.1250.
Next week note speech from ECB chief Mario Draghi's father on Tuesday and European Union economic forecasts on Thursday. Mr Draghi may offer new clues on the ECB's assessment of the economy and the country's next plan. In addition, be careful with the news from the United States: Fed leaders mother Janet Yellen will speak on Wednesday, while on Friday will release NFP America for the month of October, and it will certainly affect the market.
Support for EUR / USD lies at the 1.08 level and below this point there will not be much help to pembali euro to the level of 1.05. We prefer short positions on the euro in the current atmosphere.
Next week note speech from ECB chief Mario Draghi's father on Tuesday and European Union economic forecasts on Thursday. Mr Draghi may offer new clues on the ECB's assessment of the economy and the country's next plan. In addition, be careful with the news from the United States: Fed leaders mother Janet Yellen will speak on Wednesday, while on Friday will release NFP America for the month of October, and it will certainly affect the market.
Support for EUR / USD lies at the 1.08 level and below this point there will not be much help to pembali euro to the level of 1.05. We prefer short positions on the euro in the current atmosphere.
GBPUSD: predictions for November 2 to 8
The next strong resistance is now seen at 1.5390. It is the resistance of a potential wedge pattern (red line on the graph). We expect the pair to retrace from this level and to retest support last week at the 1.5250 level. Technical drawings for the next few weeks is still bearish.
We will see a stack of UK PMI at the start of a new week. Thursday is likely to be a volatile day for the cable: Bank of England will hold a policy meeting and releasing its quarterly inflation report. According to the latest data, inflation expectations for the following year decline in October and has been below the Bank's target for 13 months. UK interest rates are widely expected to persist in 2015, so that the top side of the pound remains closed.
We will see a stack of UK PMI at the start of a new week. Thursday is likely to be a volatile day for the cable: Bank of England will hold a policy meeting and releasing its quarterly inflation report. According to the latest data, inflation expectations for the following year decline in October and has been below the Bank's target for 13 months. UK interest rates are widely expected to persist in 2015, so that the top side of the pound remains closed.
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