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Thursday, November 5, 2015

EUR / USD, November 5: Below 1.0895 Threatens Crucial Mid-Term Support

Comments Draghi reiterated the possibility of additional measures to stimulate the growth of inflation in December, and the release of some positive US data (ADP, Trade Balance, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI), causing more and more depressed Euro versus Dollar. Overall look mighty greenback against major currencies rivals as growing investor optimism returning to the US economic outlook and its relation to the planned increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rate at the end of 2015.
Technically, Inside Bar breakout below 1.0995 (Low to October 23) is the main triggers that attract sellers to test 1.0895 (October 28th Low) and then dealing with the crucial support medium-term 1.0807 (Low-July 20). To see a clearer picture, perhaps we better observe the current technical conditions in the Weekly chart, as shown below:
Picture
Break or closing price (Weekly / Daily) below 1.0807 is needed to confirm a breakout from the Ascending Channel (Weekly / Daily), ending a consolidation phase (rebound from 1.0461 to touch 1.1713).
While on the H4 chart, the equilibrium level of Kijun-sen has been shifted slightly downwards and is now located at 1.0957, as shown below:
Picture

On the upside, above 1.0895 is needed to reduce the bearish pressure and open the way to deal with the balance of Kijun-sen level H4 scale which is now located at 1.0957. Small correction possibilities are still open but should be limited given that the focus of investor / market this week is the release of NFP data (Friday, November 6).
In contrast to the downside, below 1.0895 will still keep the bearish risks for the medium-term testing crucial support is located at 1.0807.
Outlook / Intraday bias: negative H4
Resistance: 1.0895, 1.0957, 1.0995
Support: 1.0807, 1.0665

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