AUD / USD Continues to Climb Despite Oil prices fall

The Australian dollar continued to rise around the 0.73 level on Thursday (31/12) even though the weakness of global oil prices continue to subvert the currency-commodity other currencies. This morning, the Australian dollar headed figure of 0.7300 against the US dollar 0.7289 level in yesterday's trading session.

Australia's currency declined to breakout in a tight trading range in two consecutive days. Relative strengthening it contrasts with the slump experienced by the Norwegian Krona and the Canadian Dollar. The two commodity currencies have a high sensitivity to global oil prices, which reportedly collapsed due to the increasing amount of excess supply.

Australia is a country of marginal importer of oil, which makes its currency is generally less sensitive to oil price movements. Nevertheless, low oil prices could weigh on natural gas prices and squeezing the Australian national income of the rich natural resources. Kangaroo country is preparing to become the country's largest importer of liquefied natural gas world.


More Affected Iron Ore Price
The Australian dollar usually react more strongly in turning movement if the data is correlated with the price of iron ore, Australia's biggest export today. Iron ore prices was observed to rise 2.7 percent, according to data The Stee Index.

Australian dollar trading pattern is likely to be solid enough obstacles in the next week, precisely when a number of institutional traders re-enter the market after a long holiday. In addition, the release of macroeconomic data, such as international trade data and building approvals on next Thursday, will affect the Aussie.

Commodity-currencies drop in Asia alongside Oil

Amid light trading calendar extending into Asia this Wednesday, the focus continues to remain on the oil price action, with the commodity-currencies complex mirroring the moves in the black gold. While the...
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Gold analysis December 30: Corrective In 1069 range

Corrective gold back in the range of 1069, has not yet determined a clear direction of movement with the thin volume responding to the movement of the dollar and oil are relatively more stable.

Gold is likely to end the movement in 2015 with a drop of about 10 percent, mainly due to expectations of US interest rates higher are expected to continue to weaken the position of gold as an investment metal without interest.

Technical Analysis
At the H4 chart below can be one of the possible Elliott Wave count that can help you take trading decisions today.

Global demand slows, Critical Oil Prices

Oil futures increasingly immersed due to slowing demand. At the same time, high global oil production has hit oil prices to the lowest level.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery next month is in the range of USD 36.75 per barrel or down 6 cents from the closing price on Monday (28/12). While the international benchmark Brent oil also declined 3 cents to USD 36.59 per barrel and the US dollar is less than one dollar only from 11-year lows.

Oil output from the main exporting countries such as Russia, OPEC and the US shale producers have approached the highest production level, but at this time the condition of being a large-magnitude demand that the fall in oil prices further. The condition is not always expected to take place. Analysts from JBC Energy said that the growth in demand for refinery products edged negative in October for the first time during the last 10 months. Likewise with demand from China also slowed.

That changed this month WTI oil prices just now turned higher than Brent after the US lifted a ban on the export of crude oil. Analysts expect this pricing structure will persist, mainly because the global market is experiencing a decline in demand and supply of oil while the US tightens its shale drilling.

Australian Dollar Up On Trying Middle Sluggish Global Commodity Prices

The Australian dollar, which is a commodity currency, the acquisition is trying to get in the middle of the slide in prices of oil and gold. In a quiet trading session on Tuesday (29/12) afternoon today, the Australian dollar was trading at 0.7260 against the US dollar, up from 0.7256 on Thursday last week before the Christmas holiday.

Oil prices fell to 3 percent in the trading session last night as a result of Iran's plan to increase the supply of oil. "The statement that Iran plans to raise export as much as 500,000 barrels a day within six months after the sanctions were lifted, the news is not good for oil," said Head of Markets CMC Markets, Ric Spooner. Iran also clarify its plans to cut prices in order to restore the proper export market share.

Currency most affected by the current oil price environment is actually the Canadian Dollar. The Canadian dollar continued to decline following the oil price, US dollar drop face because oil is a major Canadian export.


The Australian dollar will weaken with Iron Ore Price
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar remained firm despite Australia's major commodity prices, namely iron ore, continues to decline. But strategists CNBC bet that if the condition of the iron ore price continues the commodity currencies will continue to weaken. The price of the core components of the steel makers rose above 40 Australian dollars per ton, but still continue to fall by nearly 11 percent last month. During the same session, the Australian dollar, rising more than 1 percent. Nevertheless, the analysis of Westpac, Sean Callow, estimated that next March the Australian currency will decline to 0.68 per US dollar.

Thin Dollar Rebound On Yen

The dollar rebounded against the yen but was still stuck in the lowest level in two months against the yen in Asian trade today.

The dollar rose slightly against the yen after Japanese data came out disappointing. Japan's industrial output fell 1% in November, more than forecast 0.6%, indicating sluggish export demand. Other data showed retail sales also fell 1% in the same month, exceeding the 0.6% forecast. Both data added to speculation the BOJ someday have to add stimulus.

Yet the dollar remains near its lowest level in two months on the Japanese currency. Basically, the dollar is still in a correction phase due to profit taking after the sharp gains due to rising interest rates the Fed.

Throughout December, the dollar index has weakened 2%, but still up 8% so far this year, driven by the prospect of interest rate hikes by the Fed.

Without supported by the prospect of continued rise, the dollar trend is expected difficulty maintaining its gains. According to projections, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates as much as 3-4 times the next year, with further rises projected in March.

Ahead of the holiday season, where most of the world's financial markets were closed, the transaction exchange rate diminished make currency movements terbatas.Beberapa market, including in Australia and most of Europe, was closed today after the Christmas break. Plus there is no important events scheduled for this day. Entering the end of the year, currency movements or limited possibilities ranging.

GBPUSD Bullish; Supervise Support

Preferences: Bullish
Area Reference: Note 1.49109 - 1.48905 (look for bullish signal confirmation)
Support: 1.49109, 1.48905, 1.48576
Resistance: 1.49439, 1.49819, 1.50302
Comment :
In general, GBP / USD at 1 hourly chart looks still in bullish condition and the current price is consolidating. Beware, stochastic indicator is in oversold condition. Note that if the price moves downwards and retained strong support area around 1.48905 - 1.49109 then look for buy signals are confirmed in the area where there is potential price will again move up towards the next resistance in the range of 1.49439 - 1.49819. Instead, be alert if prices break through support at 1.48905 then there is likely price will move down towards the next support at around 1.48576.

New Zealand Trade Balance Lifting NZD / USD

New Zealand dollar edged higher against the Greenback, still stuck in the range of 0.68 after the release of the trade balance in November. New Zealand trade balance deficit better than expected.

Today (23/12), the pair NZD / USD tends to be flat at 0.6813 and edged higher only 0:10 per cent, supported by New Zealand's trade balance report which recorded the lowest deficit during the past four months. Previous New Zealand dollar has rallied for three consecutive days. However, the strengthening Kiwi restrained by the US dollar got up to follow the US GDP surges. At time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) began to rise towards 98.2 0:02 percent.

According to data taken from Statistics New Zealand, mom trade deficit contracted from 905 million in October to only 779 million dollars, better than the consensus forecast of 810 million Dollars. The achievement is supported by a surge in exports to China by 17 percent, while neighboring countries Australia actually decreased 4.1 percent.

During the year 2015 up to November, the trade balance New Zealand suffered a minus of 3.7 billion dollars, the highest since April 2009. Meanwhile, if drawn from an annual basis, a deficit increasingly November swelled to -3.68 billion -3.18 billion dollars from the same month last year, but still below analysts' estimates as much as -3.76 billion Dollars.

EUR/USD: dollar mixed near its highs

The EUR/USD pair set a fresh weekly high of 1.0960 ahead of the release of US Q3 GDP data, finally revised to 2.0% from  1.9% expected.  The pair retreated some with the news, as despite below expected, the figures are still showing some solid growth in the country. Earlier in the day, Germany released the CFK consumer confidence survey...
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Stable US dollar, US GDP Data Wait Later Tonight

The US dollar stabilized observed in Tuesday (22/12) morning after little to loosen his muscles against the currencies of the Euro zone in the middle obscurity Spanish election results. Meanwhile, traders will look to US data to be released later that night on home sales (existing home sales) and Final GDP data.

EUR / USD steady at 1.0910 position, after gaining 0.4 percent last night amid short covering following the Spanish election last Sunday. However, the acquisition of which was achieved by EUR / USD earlier was not long because there has been no clear decision of the Spanish government about who wins the election. This raises concerns about the reform of the country's economy the strongest economy in the Euro Zone No. 4 this.


The Trading Week Ahead Sepi Vacation
"Rise of the Euro occurred in a deserted market and more movement due to position adjustments, the strengthening of the Euro does not seem to be sustainable," wrote Masafumi Yamamoto, Chief Forex Strategist Mizuho Securities in Tokyo, quoted by Reuters.

On the other hand, against the yen, the US dollar was little changed with USD / JPY which reached 121.24 yen, after moving in a narrow range a few days ago that in the range of 121.16 to 121.50. Post-meeting yesterday BOJ monetary policy, Governor Kuroda said that the Japanese economy is still in rising inflation towards the target of 2 percent, so that according to the most appropriate step at this time is not add to monetary easing, although QE activity will still be supervised and can be expanded if needed.

Near holiday season is increasingly making financial markets limit their activities and make the currency-the currency moved in a range that tight. Although it is still digesting the Fed's monetary policy last week about how the continuation of the Fed's interest rate hikes, most traders seem to prefer not to take a position on the market since at least the release of key economic data ahead of the Christmas holiday and New Year.

Improved Gold Price, Inversely With Dollar

Gold prices continue strengthening improved sharply at the close of last week. Overcast US dollar also helped gold to reverse the decline in the price of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

Today (21/12), spot gold slightly uphill then 0.25 per cent to 1069.00 US dollars per troy ounce, continuing rise in the value of sales 1.4 per cent on Friday (18/12) last week. Precious metals actions affected the transfer of the investment in save-haven assets after global financial markets fell sharply following the drop in oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six other major currencies, weakened 0:05 percent towards 98.66.

Last week, gold has weakened 2 percent when the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates by 25 basis points. With the condition of higher interest rates, tend to be too good for gold demand and limit further price increases. As quoted by CNBC, the results of a poll conducted by Reuters showed that two-thirds of the economists predict the Fed will again increase in US interest rates next three months.

The next week, gold futures transaction volume is expected to remain thin due to the Christmas holiday and many traders who have done close the book before the end of the year. Such conditions reduce the liquidity in the market and increase volatility. US economic indicators to watch out for this week is GDP, durable goods orders, home sales and jobless claims.

EUR / JPY 21-25 December 2015

EUR / JPY during the past week was dominated by the direction of the market with a strong price correction. Pairs is down to 140 pips from the opening price of 133.09 and closed at 132.69 with the highest price level at 133.77 and the lowest price levels 131.03.

Level 0 and 100 in the Fibonacci retracement week period 30 November to 4 December 2015 has not been able to be uprooted at weekly candle period 14 to 18 December 2015 fibo indicates they can be used for this week. Based on the analysis of weekly periods is said that the price level as a correction lies in the Fibo level 50, 61 and 76 has been pierced. Point correction should have been exhausted masses and the direction the market further towards Fibonacci level 0. However, if that does not happen then the critical level for correction at the 100 level; plus 50 pips from that level, the reversal may occur and the trend will be down.

Fibonacci measured by candle dated December 3, 2015 at the daily timeframe chart still has not touched on level 0 and 100. The blue indicator moving average (MA 13) and red (MA 4) has been intersected to go down, but only the red moving average that can be cut green moving average (MA 50); while stochastic oscillator today is still near the oversold area. Market pairs five days to come will be trying to go up, but also should be wary of fundamental data to support these pairs. It can be seen from the following fundamental news that the euro zone do not seem too support on Thursday and Friday.

Fundamental Data Recap 21-25 December 2015

After the increase in the federal funds rate last week the greenback gained versus all major currencies except the NZD. The increase in the benchmark interest rate first since 2006 shows the confidence the central bank on the US economy continues to improve. To projected growth, unemployment and inflation in 2016 is slightly lower than projected in September, but Yellen remains confident that the inflation rate will grow and reach the target of 2.0%.

FOMC members agreed unanimously to raise the benchmark interest rate from the previous 0 - 0:25%, which has been running since August 2009 to 0:25% - 0:50%, and it also marks the beginning of an era of tightening the monetary policy of the Fed. As shown in 'dot plot' which was released to coincide with economic projections, each of which will have 4 rise in 2016 and 2017. From the projections of the Fed, the benchmark interest rate in 2016 will be in the range of 0.9% - 1.4% and in 2017 between 1.9% - 3.0%, lower than the projection in September were 1.1% - 2.1% for 2016 and 2.1% - 3.4% for 2017. However, according to the decision to increase gradually Yellen will also depend on the economic fundamental data.

Of history a few years ago, usually USD will experience a correction due to profit taking after rising interest rates, but at the end of the year is usually the USD strengthened. For this week's important data from the US is the quarter final GDP to 3, Durable Goods Orders, housing data, and the UoM index Jobless Claims. Another important data is the GDP of the United Kingdom and Canada, Japan CPI and Retail Sales Canada.

Euro Gains As US Dollar Take a Breath

The European Central Bank (ECB) this afternoon (18/12) reported data on the euro zone's current account recorded a surplus of 20.4 billion euros in numbers. Whereas the financial account, combined with portfolio investment increased to 98 billion euros in assets and 51 billion euros in liabilities (pasifa). If the Euro-zone current account is calculated as accumulated until October 2015, the surplus recorded was 299.9 billion or 2.9 percent of the overall GDP of the Euro Zone.

Dollar Take Breath
This afternoon, the euro began to gather strength against the US dollar with EUR / USD rose 12:30 percent to 1.0858 figure. The US dollar itself this afternoon began to relax the muscles of the currency-major currencies as markets take a breath from the strengthening of the US dollar yesterday after the FOMC. Until this morning, the US dollar remained at a high level two-week high against the currencies of major currencies.

Thursday, FOMC Council agreed to raise the benchmark interest rate in the US new level, which is then 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent. Thus, the benchmark interest rate the Fed now is 12:25 percent, up from 0 percent previously. Regardless of the policy, the policy makers estimate the appropriate level of interest rates until the end of 2016 could reach 1,375 percent. Meanwhile, the German business climate index slightly receded with German business confidence reached only 108.7 from the previous 109.0 figure in November. Estimates of economists by Bloomberg expect the German Ifo numbers will not be amended.

USD / JPY slips after BOJ Monetary Policy in December 2015

Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain the monetary stimulus targeted on Friday (18/12) this. Monetary stimulus remains disbursed amounting to 80 Trillion Yen and it is in conformity with the expectations of many analysts. While analysts still argue about when would be the BOJ will add stimulus, market attention leading up to the speech BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, following the policy meeting.

Kuroda: Not Change Policy More Right
Governor Kuroda, felt that the Japanese economy is still in rising inflation towards the target of 2 percent, so that the most appropriate measures according to the moment is not to add to monetary easing, although QE activity will still be supervised and can be expanded if needed.

BOJ benchmark interest rate is still maintained at the level of 0:10 per cent in line with expectations, the results of voting 8: 1, but they agreed to extend the maturity of the purchase of Japanese government bonds from 7 years to 12 years.

According to Kuroda, the Japanese business sentiment is still quite satisfactory and export menagalami increase. Although semikian, he admitted that there was a "stain" which weakens the economy, namely the weakness of inflation. In the second half of 2016, Japan's core inflation is expected to reach the target of 2 percent.

In addition, Kuroda also mentioned the Tankan business sentiment data. According to him, senetimen business in the country can still survive, but there are a number of signals that need to be wary of. After this report, monitored yen strengthened against the US dollar, with USD / JPY declining again to below the level of 122, exactly at number 121 735 in the afternoon when the news was written.

The US dollar Show Superiority of Post US rate hike in 2015

The US dollar drove up against the Euro and yen after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 0.25 percent from zero, for the first time in nearly a decade. The latest statement of the FOMC this year also showed a decrease in its estimate for the increase in the benchmark interest rate, and this policy be the injection of energy for the US currency.

The US dollar rose 0.2 percent against the euro, with EUR / USD was bought at the price of 1.0908 in this morning's trading session, plunged by 40 pips at the beginning of the Asian trading session. USD / JPY rose 0.5 percent 122.26 penetrating position, towards the highest level since December 8. Meanwhile, the dollar index version of the Wall Street Journal observed numbers rose 0.2 percent to 90.10. USD / CAD jumped to a high level of 1.3845, the latest figures decline Loonie against the Greenback in addition to increasing the supply of oil that suppress the price of oil as the mainstay of Canada.


The US dollar and Fed Rate Increase Plan Next
The Fed signaled to mengetakatkan policy into a positive tone for the Dollar. "It is quite positive for the dollar," said Brad Betchel, managing director of currency sales and trading at Jefferies LLC quoted by WSJ.

The higher the planned increase in the federal funds rate for 2016, then the higher the likelihood semain dollar will gain acquisition. Meanwhile, the slower the policy tightening next year, then it is likely to make the US dollar weakened.

Higher US interest rates make the dollar more attractive because the returns to assets terdenominasi the greenback pushed higher. However, the Fed has said that the policy interest rate depends on economic data and rising interest rates was likely to be made gradually. In addition, global growth is also a concern of the Fed. Jebloknya commodity prices and developing economies will also be a concern of the Fed to raise interest rates in a few weeks or a few months.

According to the analysis of Pares Upadhyaya, Director of Forex Trading at Pioneer Investments, in general for 2016 economic factors will be positive for the US dollar. "Divergence of monetary policy and interest rate will be the prime mover dollar," said Upadhyaya.

The Fed's rate hike lower gold price

Today (17/12), the price of gold terhempaskan by the decision of the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates. Overnight, gold had surged before determining the benchmark.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adds to the range limit of the US interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25 to 0.5 percent, which ended the long debate about the readiness of the US economy in the face of higher lending rates. Although the Fed decision removes an overhang on the price of gold, the focus now shifts to how quickly the US central bank will raise interest rates again in the future.

This precious metal has sunk nearly 10 percent over 2015, mostly due to the uncertainty of the timing of the rise in US interest rates and the market fears that high interest rates will reduce the demand on non-yielding assets like gold. Spot gold dims 00:47 percent to the US dollar 1,067.55 per troy ounce. Last night, have rallied ahead of the interest rate the Fed and managed to retain most of the price gains after central bank statement and closed up 1.2 percent.

"The movement of gold has unusually sensitive to changes in monetary policy for many months. The increase in interest rates could eventually remove the uncertainty of the bullion market," said HSBC analyst James Steel quoted on CNBC. The investors have increased short-covering trade in gold to near record highs, although this time has decreased. The dollar jumped nearly one percent against the currencies of major, as one of the factors that can limit the action of short-covering.

Oil Prices Continue to Decline After US Interest Rate Determination

In the Asian session trading session after the establishment of the US interest rates today (17/12), crude oil futures continued to decline. The decline in oil prices was also influenced by the increase in US oil reserves according to the EIA report.

Oil futures contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery next month 00:34 percent shrink towards 35.38 US dollars per barrel, after closing slumped nearly 5 percent on Wednesday (16/12) due to the addition of oil stocks in the US. At the same time, Brent oil for February delivery also fell 0.63 per cent to USD 37.18 per barrel. International benchmark oil futures ended the day session 1:34 ago with a dollar decline.

According to data compiled by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday evening, the oil reserves in the United States last week grew due to an increase in imports. EIA reported that there were 4.8 million increase in US oil inventories be 490.7 million barrels, far exceeding the results of a Reuters analyst poll that predicted a reduction of 1.4 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose 1.7 million barrels, distillate fuel followed by 2.6 million barrels.

Early this morning, the Federal Reserve finally announced a rise in US interest rates for the first time for nearly a decade, indicating the US economy has managed to overcome the disastrous financial crisis 2007-2009. Higher rates of reference specifically to support the strengthening of the US dollar makes oil and other commodities are traded with the greenback become more expensive.

EUR/USD hits fresh highs as Yellen speaks following historic rate hike

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD bounced from 1.0885 and rose breaking above previous highs, hitting 1.0992 after the first words of Janet Yellen. Then it moved of daily highs, but is was holding above 1.0940 as the US dollar reverses across the board. 

The Federal Reserve rose the interest rate to 0.25% - 0.50%, and like Yellen said it ended an era. The central bank said that further hikes would be gradual. After the release of the statement, greenback rose in the market hitting new highs but then bounced to the downside, erasing all gains. 

Yellen is speaking and then will answer journalists questions while trades will look for clues about the future path of monetary policy. 

EUR/USD within weekly range 

Despite the historic move by the FED, EUR/USD still remains moving sideways within the range of the previous days. To the upside, the key resistance continues to be between 1.1030 and 1.1060 that capped the upside during the last five trading days and were also the 100 and 200-day MA currently stand. A break higher could open the doors for an extension of the bullish run. 

On the opposite direction, 1.0900 is the area to watch. Recently the pair traded momentarily below but it was rejected. A consolidations under 1.09 would weaken the euro in the short-term, while below, the next support to watch is the 20-day MA located at 1.0780/90. 

Fed raises rates by to 0.25%-0.50% as expected

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Federal Reserve raised the target range for federal funds to 0.25% - 0.50% in an unanimous decision that was also widely expected by markets.

“The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.”

The Fed also said that economic conditions could warrant “only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.”

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will address the press at 19:30 GMT.

Fed dot plot

The Fed also released the economic projections. FOMC officials made small changes in their views of economic activity, and they don't expect inflation to achieve their 2% target until 2018. 

The median expected federal funds rate target at the end of 2016 is 1.375%, matching September's projection. The median view of the longer-run level also held steady at 3.50%.

EUR/USD: waiting is about to end

The American dollar trades higher ahead of the FED's latest meeting outcome, advancing mostly on sentiment rather than anything else. The pair traded as low as 1.0911 and recovered a handful of pips above the level, with the greenback holding into gains after the release of solid housing data. According to official data, new-home construction climbed 10.5% in November, to a 1.17 million...
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US Dollar More Attractive Approaching The Fed Policy Announcement

The US dollar moved higher in Wednesday (16/12) this morning following the US bond yields which bounced higher ahead of US rate hike decision is increasingly close. Most market estimates that the US Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates for the first time after eight years after the global financial crisis.

Discourse of the Fed's interest rate hikes is already in anticipation of the market since last year, so now investors are more keen to interpret how fast the US Central Bank in tightening policy starting from the initial decision. According to Ray Attrill, Chief Forex Strategist at National Australia Bank, if the earlier investors can only wait without being able to do anything, then now is the time to make decisions.


Stronger dollar
The US dollar index is at position 98 144, got a 0.6 percent gain since Tuesday. Against the yen, the greenback jumped above 121.50, off a low of 120.35 levels. Meanwhile, EUR / USD traded near 1.0900 after earlier hitting a seven-week peak 1.1060 figure.

Major currencies were weaker against the US Dollar today is the Australian dollar. AUD / USD goes down below the 0.72 level from the high level of 0.7283 yesterday. Traders are looking for a reason to sell the Aussie them after comments RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, who said that he wants a weaker currency to boost Australia's commodity sales.

According to analysts from RB Paribas, USD weakening US - seen from the current position - appears to slowly diminish. The US dollar is now in an attractive level-currency versus other major currencies. Contrary to previous estimates, the Dollar is expected to be strengthened after the announcement of the tight monetary policy of the Fed tomorrow.

Commodity Price Support, RBA Governor Wants More Australian Dollar Weak

The Australian dollar fell quite in since last night and became the weakest performing currency against the US dollar up to Wednesday (16/12) morning. Ahead of tomorrow night's FOMC decision, the Australian Dollar appear to set face and the Australian Dollar US Dollar due to the Central Bank Governor's comments of Australia (RBA), Glenn Stevens.
The Commodity Price Support Continue to sag
In an interview with a newspaper published today, Glenn Stevens said the Australian dollar should be weaker, as a form of "sympathy" to the decline in commodity prices. Financial Review, the name of the newspaper, citing Stevens, "The exchange rate will still be adjusted, such as function, and I noted that commodity prices continue to fall, so it is possible adjustments (impairment) further will happen."
In this year, said Stevens, commodity prices have gone down 12 percent. However, the number one in the RBA is still confident with the picture of the Australian economy, particularly with the growth of employment sectors fairly slick. "The increase in population in Australia has been accompanied by a rise in the labor sector, the increase in labor force participation, or at least be able to maintain the unemployment rate in a range that the flats." said Stevens.
AUD / USD began edged moment of writing, the position of 0.7198, after a 0.6 percent fade with the strengthening US dollar last night after US data on CPI. In addition to Stevens's comments this morning Australia also reported the MI Leading index drop 0.2 percent on a monthly basis.
Likewise with AUD / NZD, the commodity dollar pair goes down to the lowest level since November, and is now trading at 1.0658 figure. GDT auction New Zealand reported slightly increased. Such as iron ore against the Australian dollar, the price of milk powder also affects the movement of the New Zealand dollar.

Weaker oil, Correction Sequential Two-Day Price Increase

Crude oil moved down in Asian trading session today (16/12), corrects the strengthening of two consecutive days earlier. An unexpected rise in US oil stockpiles suspected to be one of the causes of oil price movements become weakened.

On the Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermedate down about 1 percent, or 40 cents towards USD 36.85 per barrel after soaring more than 1 US dollar yesterday (15/12). On Monday, WTI had slumped reached 34.53 US dollars per barrel, but then closed higher. Until the time of writing, Brent oil trading as the benchmark international prices has not been opened. Brent contract ended the day Tuesday with a rise 53 cents to USD 38.45 US dollars per barrel, which is the highest position for 8 days later.

The Federal Reserve is conducting a two-day meeting, which is expected to generate an increase in US interest rates decision. The increase in key interest is seen as a negative impact on oil prices because it encourages the strengthening of the US dollar, making oil sales contract will be more expensive for holders of other currencies.

One marker signal of excess supply in the market is increasingly becoming, has emerged last night. Based on data collected by industry group American Petroleum Institute, an increase in US oil inventories by 2.3 million barrels last week. Increasing oil reserves are unexpected by analysts Reuters, which actually anticipated reduction in stocks of 1.4 mln barrels.

EUR/USD: dollar advances, but caution prevails

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0988

The EUR/USD pair started the day with a strong footing, rallying up to 1.1059 ahead of the European opening. Yet the rally lost steam after London's opening bell, and the pair slowly eased, falling below the 1.1000 level before the release of the US inflation data, which resulted better-than-expected in November and compared to a year before, as it rose by 0.5% compared to previous 0.2%. Monthly basis however, inflation remained unchanged. The net readings, ex food and energy matched markets' expectations, overall positive and dollar supportive. The EUR/USD pair remains below the 1.1000 level ahead of the US opening, and the 1 hour chart shows that the price is currently below a mild bearish 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator lacks directional strength around the 100 level, and the RSI anticipates some further declines, heading lower around 46. In the 4 hours chart, the price is finding some short term support around a horizontal 20 SMA at 1.0980, while the technical indicators head lower, but still above their mid-lines, increasing the risk of a downward move towards the 1.0945 region. 

Support levels: 1.0980 1.0945 1.0910

Resistance levels: 1.1000 1.1045 1.1080 

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5152

The GBP/USD pair is stuck around the 1.5150 level, having been unable to attract investors this Tuesday, despite the release of the UK inflation data. Earlier today, the kingdom published its November data slightly better-than-expected, but far from resulting encouraging, as the CPI rose by 0.1% compared to a year before, but remained unchanged monthly basis. The producer price index fell further into the red in the same month, but the Pound held steady. Technically speaking, the short term picture is neutral, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is hovering around its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head nowhere around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the bias is neutral-to-bearish, given that the price is being capped by its 20 SMA, flat around 1.5165, while the technical indicators stand horizontal around their mid-lines. 

Support levels: 1.5120 1.5090 1.5050 

Resistance levels: 1.5165 1.5200 1.5240

USD/JPY Current price: 121.15

The USD/JPY pair trades near its daily high of 121.21, having erased all of its intraday losses ahead of the US opening. The pair has been capped by a slightly bearish 100 DMA ever since the week started, and retains an overall bearish tone in the longer term, albeit with the FED's outcome to be release in a bit more than 24 hours, is quite unlikely that technical readings will determinate the future of the pair in term. Shorter term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price remains below a bearish 100 SMA while the technical indicators are moving back and forth around their mid-lines, lacking clear directional strength. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have corrected higher, but hold well below their mid-lines, whilst the 100 and 200 DMAs converge around 122.40. Overall, the upside is expected to remain limited, with selling interest now probably waiting around 121.35. 

Support levels: 121.00 120.60 120.30 

Resistance levels: 121.35 121.70 122.20

Pounds Not Gains After CPI UK November

UK CPI rate reported by PNS rose 0.1 percent in November compared with minus 0.1 percent than the previous month. Analysts expect CPI UK will fit in zero. Transportation costs and the price of alcohol and tobacco are the main contributors to the increase in UK inflation last month. Nevertheless, the price slump clothes carrying larger than the gains scored by the main contributors.
On the basis of this inflation is still dimness, the Bank of England (BOE) last week decided not to change interest rates in the range of 0.5 percent. And since then, the traders observed to stop assuming the BOE will soon follow the Fed to raise interest rates. England's monetary policy makers diperakan will wait until 2017.
Pound sterling was little changed against the US dollar, following the biggest drop in two weeks on Monday. GBP / USD was trading at 1.5148 figure after sliding 0.5 percent yesterday, while the EUR / GPB depreciated to 0.7275 figure.

Forex trading plan for December 16

EUR / USD test the higher levels, but the buyer is stopped by the 100 day MA (1, 1060). German ZEW economic sentiment rose above expectations. Note the European PMIs at 08: 00-09: 00 GMT. Support is at the level of 1.0950, 1.0915 / 00, 1.0880 and 1.0800. Above the 1.1060 level we note the 1.1115 level.

USD / JPY tested levels above the 121.35 level. Staunchly below will open the way up to the level of 121.85 / 122. Support is at the level of 120.60 and 120.00.

GBP / USD rose after the US CPI, but still limited by the resistance at level 1.5200 / 40/80. Britain will release labor market data at 09:30 GMT. Focus on the average earnings index as related to inflation and inflation, in turn, determine the policy of the Bank of England. Predictions are negative. Support is at the level of 1.5100, 1.5050 and 1.4950

NZD –Top performer in Asia, UK CPI, German ZEW – Up next

The Antipodean currencies extended their upbeat momentum into a second day this session, with the Kiwi emerging the best performer across the FX board. While the USD/JPY pair slipped...

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Gold Price On December 15th, 2015: Back Again To Bearish Correction At 1063

Gold declines to almost USD9 ahead of FOMC meeting tomorrow. The precious metal is traded around 1063. Gold price consistenly fell behind strengthening USD, and continued to weaken recently due to Fed rate issue. Gold revenue has been leaning towards lower levels since 2012 because of price decrease. Volume rise in 2014 was counterbalanced by significant price loss. With the background of high production cost, Gold industry has been facing serious challenge as most producers failed to make a breakeven, for the average cost reached to USD1200/ounce, while seliing price was still below USD1100/ounce.

This week is one of the most important times for Gold since Fed is predicted to increase rates for the first time in almost a decade. In what would be their last meeting for this year, Fed is expected to hike US rates with positive economy data supporting the decision. The US central bank is forecasted to add a quarter poin for their interest rates, with analysts predicting on more lowerings in the following months. On the grounds of this liftoff, Merrill Lynch had stated its projection for Gold price to dip to USD950 in the beginning of 2016.

Technical Analysis

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EUR/USD: entering wait-and-see mode

The EUR/USD pair trades up and down within a tight range below the 1.1000 mark this Monday, mostly driven but European stocks movements. The EUR managed to advance some after the release of the EU Industrial Production data for October, which rose by 0.6% compared to a month before, and 1.9% yearly basis... 
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AUD/USD flips to gains, flirts with 0.7200

After a weaker start to the week, the AUD bulls regained lost momentum and jumped back on the bids, bringing an end to the previous two consecutive days of heavy declines.Read more

IEA Global Oil Supply Projections The Overflowing

Oil prices sank at the opening of the Asian session today (14/12), after last Friday's International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a projection of the overflow will increasingly global oil supplies next year.

Late last week, Brent as a benchmark global oil prices traded less than USD 38 per barrel for the first time since December 2008 after the IEA stated that demand growth is slowing, while OPEC output remains high which refers to the abundance of larger supply within a few months forward. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also settled at around 35 US dollars per barrel while the number of oil wells in the US recorded the lowest level as last April 2010.

On the Mercantile Exchange, WTI delivery next month fell 25 points, or about 0.72 percent to 35.35 US dollars a barrel, having fallen 3.1 percent last week. Brent oil futures also slid 0.74 percent to the USD 37.66 per barrel, continuing decline 4.5 percent on Friday (11/12). Since the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) December 4 last, the two benchmark oil prices are weakening every day.

In a December report, the IEA projected oil demand growth in 2016 will be very slow. These conditions will widen the gap between the supply-demand imbalance in global oil. Next year, the IEA estimates that global demand will only grow by 1.2 million barrels, down from a previous forecast of 1.8 million barrels per day.

Japan's Tankan Business Sentiment Survey Stable, Stronger Yen

Japanese business sentiment was reported to be in stable condition in the three months to December, on Monday (14/12) morning. The survey results are also the subject of observations in the central bank's policy decisions, be an antidote to concerns arising from global economic uncertainty, and may affect the readiness of a company to draw up a budget.

Japanese Business Conditions Still Good
Tankan manufacturing index for companies in Japan steady at plus 12 for the fourth quarter, while the company's non-manufacturing index went down by one point to plus 18 from the previous plus 19. A positive number in the Tankan index indicates that most companies in the country of the Rising Sun is still projecting better business conditions. In addition, they also still firmly against capital expenditure plans up to March 2016.

This is a green light for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to try to encourage companies in Japan to invest their profits even more. Large companies are expected to increase capital expenditure as much as 10.8 percent in this fiscal year.

"A number of plants are likely to postpone their capital expenditure with respect to the reflection slowdown in China and the other developing countries. However, overall, these companies still retain their budget plan that is likely bullish," explained one member BOJ cited by Reuters.

For information, on Saturday, China released data on industrial production for November were up 6.2 per cent on an annual basis, with output growth of the industry is performing better than expected. After this report, the USD / JPY was trading at 120.86, down 0:10 percent after the data was announced.

Technical Review Weekend: Daily EURUSD Inside Bar, Market Awaits FOMC

Buyers still trying to dominate trading EUR / USD up towards the close of the weekend, but the sellers respond not far from 1.1041 after the release of US data some fairly positive (Retail Sales, PPI and Consumer Sentiment). As a result, the price is still trapped in the range 1.1041 Inside Bar - 1.0878 which also reflects the market vigilance to anticipate the FOMC statement next week.

Reaction sellers and the failure of the breakout of the Inside Bar (above 1.1041) might also represent market expectations about the possibility of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month (December 2015) in the minutes of the FOMC which will be released next week (Thursday, December 17 at 02.00 am in the morning) ,

Technically, some analysis from renowned institutions interesting to note, for example, Nomura analysts who say that the EUR / USD needs a down-move that represents a wave-B that can target the 1.0807 to 1.1041 will act as key-resistance.

JP Morgan analyst is a bit more detail, saying that a break above 1.1087 will be able to change the map of Elliot Wave (short / mid-term), but the pullback from 1.1041 will be a bearish risk that could reach 1.0642. While analysts at Barclays Capital said that this time they are still stand-aside to wait for price action against the resistance 1.1085 / 1.1120 or to 1.0795 support.

Gold Price On December 11th, 2015: Bearish Consolidative At 1069

Gold is consolidating in bearish sentiment at 1069, in anticipation of US retail sales today, as well as Fed desision on rate hike, which is currently supported by a 90 percent probability.

US import price in November was reported to be at -0.4 percent, down -0.1 percent from its previous result in October and also lower than expected. Export price suffered the same fate as it dipped to -0.6 percent in November, much lower than October's number at -0.2 percent. On the other hand, UN cut 0.4 point from 2015 global growth projection to 2.4 percent. US GDP in Q3 and Q4 were speculated to have been the main cause of that cut.

Technical Analysis

This H4 chat reveals one of the possibilities from Elliot Wave to help you make your trading decision today.

Antipodeans drop in Asia on weaker oil, a host of US data eyed

Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

A low-key affair in Asia, with no significant releases on the data-front and markets favouring the US currency heading into next week’s Fed meeting. USD/JPY extended its correction to the upside from Monday’s extensive slide and trades firmer beyond 122 handle, having taken-out the 200 & 50-DMA upside barrier. While markets ignored Thursday’s mixed set of US economic data, which showed the US weekly jobless claims hitting a five-month high.

While the sentiment soured around the higher-yielding currencies such as the Antipodes and the pound, on the back of the persistent weakness in oil prices. The Antipodeans suffer the most on lower oil prices, as it negatively affects their LNG exports. AUD/USD drops -0.49% to 0.7245 levels, moving further away from 0.73 handle. While the kiwi loses -0.16% and trades around 0.6754, having faced rejection at 200-DMA.

On the equities space, Asian indices trade mixed, with Japan’s benchmark, the Nikkei rebounding 0.80% at 19,200 while Australia’s S&P ASX index finished -0.30% lower to 5,023. The mainland China’s benchmark, the Shanghai Composite tanks -0.85% to 3,426, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng loses -0.80% to 21,527. 

Heading into Europe & the US 

After an eventful European session yesterday on the back central banks event, today EUR calendar offers nothing relevant on the cards, except for 2nd-tier data from Germany – final CPI and WPI. While from the UK docket, less significant construction output and consumer inflation expectations data will be published.

However, the main markets movers are expected to emerge from the US calendar, with a host of key dataflow in store. The US retail sales, PPI and consumer sentiment figures will be closely eyed apart from other 2nd-tier releases.

While BOE MPC member Weale is expected to speak about pension reforms at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, in London.

EUR/USD Technicals

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, “Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price remains below a bearish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators head nowhere below their mid-lines, supporting some further declines. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has extended its advance below the current level and now provides an immediate support around 1.0920, whilst the technical indicators are turning north above their mid-lines after correcting overbought readings, limiting the bearish potential at the time being.”

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Oil Potential Return To 37.76

Trend Analysis of Major Oil
USDX really reflected on the balance level 97.16 as had been predicted in the previous analysis. Now the price rise towards the weekly EMA area also potentially reflect the price. Prices are predicted to rise up to touch the weekly EMA and price rebound potential and experienced a bearish trend. USDX bearish trend is an indication of weakness in the USD which will certainly affect the oil prices in the opposite direction.
Oil is predicted to experience a bit of a bullish trend, at least to reach the level of 37.76 which was the lowest level this year. The opportunity to buy will appear at levels that are formed on the minor trend of oil.


Minor Trend Analysis Oil
Oil fell after touching a sell signal on the previous analysis. Now the price is predicted to experience a bullish trend as a result of the USD is expected to be slightly weaker today, for it is a sell on the previous analysis can be closed before the price reverses. Prices are predicted to rise up to the level of 37.76 after hitting a confirmation SD1 (37.24), which was the confirmation breaches 36.95 level balance. Buy open at that level and also at the level of 36.95 which is the limit balance of buyer-seller range between 36.38 and 37.53. Can buy on-hold strategy with the placement of the SL plus or take profit at the level of 37.76. Stop loss is in accordance with the target level of 36.38.
Recommendation to buy if the price touches the SD1 level (37.24) and the equilibrium level of 36.95, with a stop loss at 36.38 and take profit level at SL-hold strategy plus.

EUR/USD: dollar bulls back in command, but for how long?

EUR/USD off monthly highs, attacks 1.1000

Currently, the EUR/USD pair loses -0.13% and trades at 1.1008, testing 1.10 barrier. The main currency pair halted its 2-day winning streak and turned negative after the USD bulls jumped back on the bids, attempting a minor correction after yesterday’s extensive slide.

On Wednesday, the shared currency rallied to the highest levels since Oct versus the US dollar after ECB’s Governing Council members backed the recent ECB policy decision, citing that markets had unrealistic easing expectations from the central bank. This further fuelled another round of post-ECB shorts squeeze.

Looking ahead, in absence of macro update for the EUR in the day ahead, focus now remains on the SNB decision which may have major impact on the EUR/CHF pair, eventually impacting EUR/USD somewhat. While the sentiment on the European stocks will also play a key role today.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair struggles above 1.10 handle, with the next hurdle in sight is located at 1.1041 (Dec 9 High) and from there to 1.1072/84 (100 & 200-DMA). To the downside, the immediate support is seen at 1.0990 (1h 20-SMA). Selling pressure will intensify below the last, dragging the pair towards 1.0926/27 (1h 50-SMA/ 5-DMA).

Japanese Manufacturing Survey Results Weaken Yen

According to the preliminary survey, the expansion of manufacturing activity in Japan almost vanished. The report indicates the growth of the Japanese economy is still shaky and brought yen weakened.

The yen weakened against the greenback immediately after the survey was released. USD / JPY rose 12:14 percent to 121.61, after touching had slumped to 121.09.

Japan's Ministry of Finance reported the Business Survey Index (BSI) manufacturing slowed from 11.0 in the September quarter to 3.8 in the last quarter of this year. Analysts expect an increase towards 12.1. Figures greater than zero indicates optimism otherwise below zero indicates pessimism. BSI is an early indicator before Tankan survey from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which is used as the basis of monetary policy and was released about a week later.

Since April 2013 then, the BoJ has implemented a quantitative easing program (QQE) in order to raise inflation and consumer spending. Signs of the growing strength of the Japanese economy put pressure on the central bank to expand the program QQE again. On Wednesday, Japanese GDP -0.2 September quarter was revised up to 0.3 per cent, while the June quarter was also revised -0.1 percent from -0.2 percent previously. Core machinery orders report yesterday also increased 10.7 percent, exceeding analyst estimates shrank 1.5 percent.

RBNZ Cut Interest Rates, New Zealand Dollar Soars

New Zealand dollar maintain its gains until Thursday (10/12) morning after early this morning, RBNZ OCR interest rate cut again by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent, after cuts last September. Investors regulate what strategy is most appropriate after the policy of the Central Bank of New Zealand. NZD / USD traded higher 0:32 per cent in the number 0.67348 after RBNZ rate cut announcement today.

Can Still Bring Down Again
Not only cut interest rates, the RBNZ also signals a possibility of interest rates already low it could be lowered again. The central bank warned the people of New Zealand, saying that if there is a rise in inflation amid rising house prices as today, then it is likely the value of mortgages will also rise.

"We already estimate that the current interest rate is (slowly) will be achieved, and the central bank will reduce it again if at all possible. We will teurs clamping ekonoi data that exist," said the Governor of the RBNZ.

RBNZ governor, Graeme Wheeler, said that New Zealand's economic growth slowed in 2015, in addition to the increase of migration to New Zealand, which adds to the unemployment rate in line with the slow pace of job creation. Although the economy in 2016 is expected to rise, the recent strengthening New Zealand dollar is somewhat not help contribute sustainable growth, said Wheeler.

With an inflation rate below the 1-3 percent targeted by the RBNZ, interest rate cuts made today was intended to push down the Kiwi dollar and stimulate interest in consumer spending through lower interest rates.

Weakening US Dollar Takes Gold Edged Up

Since last night was gold rising, received support from a weaker US dollar. However, only a limited rise in gold as investors are still anticipating the possibility of rising interest rates the Fed next week.
Spot gold traded in the range of 1.077.60 per troy ounce, up around 0:24 per cent after last night rose 0.4 percent as the US dollar slipped compared to other major currencies. The US dollar index was recorded at the level of 98.34, down 0.07 percent.
Bullion traders pessimistic on the continuing rally in gold prices influenced the increase in the Federal Funds Rate expectations for the first time since nearly a decade at the upcoming FOMC meeting December 15 to 16. Higher interest rates would make it difficult to compete gold with other assets that provide returns (interest). Gold has lost around 9 percent resale value due to expectations on the US interest rate hike.
The decline in commodity prices, especially crude oil, also weighed on gold futures movement. Black gold has dropped to the lowest level in seven years due to OPEC policies withstand higher oil production in order to protect market share. Weak oil prices could also trigger fears of deflation, a bearish factor for gold is often used as a hedge against inflation value.